On Election Day, it can be difficult to know where to go to get a sense of the type of night it will be with all 435 House contests, 35 Senate elections, and 36 governors’ races on the ballots across the nation.
The races I think are worth following are listed below, not just for their results but also for what they can reveal about the state of the national playing field. There is an alphabetical list of the races.
* Connecticut’s 5th District: Despite the fact that Connecticut is not a state in a tight election, this contest has come to represent the difficulties certain Democratic incumbents are facing in New England. Rep. Jahana Hayes, who has held the position in western Connecticut since 2018, won reelection in 2020 with 55% of the vote as Joe Biden was roughly winning the district in the presidential race. However, Republicans have been confident in their choice, George Logan, for a time. The former state senator is running to represent the district as a Republican for the first time in almost 16 years. The election is rated a Toss-Up by Inside Elections. If the Republicans triumph here, it will probably be a sign that they are advancing to the national majority with ease.
* Michigan Governor: Despite the fact that Michigan has consistently been one of the nation’s top swing states in recent presidential elections, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer appears to be the front-runner in this race against Republican Tudor Dixon, who prevailed in a contentious primary with the support of former President Donald Trump. Since receiving the nomination, Dixon has had difficulty keeping up with Whitmer in terms of finances. Polls indicate that Whitmer should win this election, but pay attention to the margin. If she wins by a small margin, it may have an impact on contests further down the ballot if Dixon underperformed.
* New Hampshire Senate: It seemed as though major GOP groups were abandoning the race after retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc won the Republican nomination earlier this fall. It appeared as though Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan might win when the super PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell cancelled more than $5 million in planned advertising in the state. However, during the final week of the campaign, the Senate Majority PAC of the Democrats increased funds to its ad reservation, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee entered the race once more, indicating that this is a closer fight than anticipated. Republicans will virtually certainly retake the majority in the Senate if Bolduc succeeds in winning.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who serves as the campaign leader for the House Democrats, is up for reelection in New York’s 17th district. Republicans’ early expenditure in the contest appeared to be nothing more than a troll tactic intended to irritate and divert Maloney’s attention from other contests across the nation. It then became competitive, just like so many recent races in the Northeast. Mike Lawler, a Republican state assemblyman, has remained in striking distance. Recent changes in Inside Elections’ rating of this contest—toss-up—indicate that Republicans are gaining ground. If Lawler succeeds in pulling off the surprise, it will be doubly satisfying for his party because they will gain a seat no one predicted and remove a leader of the Democratic Party in the process.
* North Carolina Senate: North Carolina narrowly supported Donald Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Therefore, Ted Budd of the GOP ought to be the front-runner in this election. Yes, he is. However, Cheri Beasley, a former Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, has kept the campaign tighter than most anticipated in a race that has been overshadowed by Senate races in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania that have more well-known candidates. As results come in from further west, if Democrats are able to win this contest, it would signal they have a very good chance of keeping the Senate majority. However, if Budd’s advantage is five points or more, that bodes well for Republican chances.
* Governor of Oregon: Similar to other blue strongholds around the nation, Oregon is surprisingly competitive in this race. (In nearly 40 years, Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican governor.) That’s mostly because departing Democratic Governor Kate Brown is extremely unpopular, which has hurt Tina Kotek’s chances of winning her party’s nomination. The presence of former state senator Betsy Johnson, a Democrat who is currently mounting a respectable independent campaign, adds another layer of complexity. The winner of this is Christine Drazan, the Republican candidate. Republicans’ victory in Oregon would be extremely symbolic and would demonstrate their national competitiveness (at least in this election cycle).
* Virginia’s 2nd District: This Virginia Beach-area seat is the one for you if you’re searching for a bellwether district in the early hours of the evening. Rep. Elaine Luria, a Democrat, is an important member of the House committee looking into January 6 and has made clear during the campaign not only her participation but the panel’s emphasis on upholding democracy. In a redistricted district that would have narrowly supported Biden, state senator Jen Kiggans has established herself as a reliable Republican recruit. If Luria succeeds, the likelihood of a strong red wave in the House is diminished. However, if Kiggans triumphs, it indicates that Republicans are in a favourable climate.
