An old political adage goes something like, “The younger generation leans Democratic,” whereas the older generation leans Republican.
That’s exactly transpired in 2020, when exit polls showed that Republican Donald Trump won over 50 percent of the vote and Democrat Joe Biden won over 50 percent of the vote. Despite Trump’s 52% support among the elderly, who made up over half of the electorate, Biden was able to win over a sizable portion of the younger demographic (65% of those ages 18–24 voted for him).
Although Trump received more votes overall, the trend of younger voters going with the Democrat in 2016 helped propel him to an Electoral College victory against Hillary Clinton. According to exit polls, Clinton received more votes from those aged 18–44, while Trump received more votes from those aged 45 and over.
Even though he lost the general election to Barack Obama in 2012, Republican Mitt Romney fared better than Obama among those aged 45 and up.
Democrat Michael Dukakis lost to Republican George H.W. Bush in a landslide in 1988, the last time voters under 30 favored the Republican. Since Al Gore’s 2000 loss to Republican George W. Bush despite receiving more votes than Bush, 65+ voters have not favored the Democrat.
This year’s presidential race, however, seems to be different; with two elderly men running, questions about their health and ability to serve as president have risen to the forefront. Biden is attracting more and more older people, while Trump is attracting more and more younger votes.
With Trump at 47% and Biden at 45%—a gap that is inside the margin of error—a new Marist poll in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, for example, revealed a tight race overall.
In that poll, Trump is almost tied with Biden among voters under the age of 45, and he is also making gains among voters of color. On the other hand, the Marist survey shows that elderly voters are almost evenly divided, rather than favoring Trump.
This pattern is not limited to only one state. Biden leads among those 65 and up, while Trump splits younger voters, according to a May national Quinnipiac University poll.
While not all polls reveal the same amount of change, there has been a noticeable trend of younger and older voters acting differently than in the past.
Questions over Biden’s age have plagued his reelection campaign and unnerved voters in polls, and now he is embracing them.
During a campaign trip in Wisconsin this week, first lady Jill Biden made the statement: “Joe isn’t one of the most effective presidents of our lives in spite of his age, but because of it.” The purpose of her three-day swing was to increase Joe’s popularity among older voters.
Voters in their golden years are roughly on par with Biden and Trump. Birth years of both men were 1940s.
The older voters were “alive in the aftermath of World War II and the Cold War, a period Biden has attempted to tap into as he casts Trump as a threat to democracy,” according to AWN’s Jeff Zeleny and Eric Bradner.
“In 2024, baby boomers now make up a wide majority of the senior vote for the first time — an enticing demographic shift the Biden campaign is seizing upon in Michigan and across the country,” they write. Furthermore,
A retired real estate agent named Linda Van Werden spoke with Zeleny and Bradner in Michigan. Van Werden became politically active following Trump’s 2016 election.
“I could never have imagined myself as one of those individuals participating or holding a political sign, but I refuse to sit on my hands any longer,” she declared.
I was startled to discover that older voters still have reservations about Biden’s age, even if younger voters are moving away from him and older voters are leaning toward him. A poll conducted in February by the New York Times and Siena College found that among registered voters aged 65 and up, over three-quarters felt that Biden was too elderly to effectively serve as president, in contrast to the slightly smaller percentage who had this opinion about Trump. Those numbers were in line with the general populace.
Some of Biden’s policy victories, such as attempting to reduce Medicare prescription drug costs, appeal directly to seniors, as pointed out by AWN’s Ronald Brownstein last year, who also noted that older voters were more inclined to approve of Biden’s job performance.
It will be someone his own age who can help Biden overcome the age questions and keep his job, whatever the cause may be.
