Donald J. Trump became the Republican nominee in 2016 and went on to win the president after accusing many Mexican immigrants of rape and falsely alleging that Barack Obama was not born in the United States.
Eight years later, surveys indicate that he may return to the White House by polling higher among Black and Hispanic voters than any Republican presidential nominee since the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
How is that possible? It’s a question I get frequently, and the most recent New York Times/Siena College polls of Black and Hispanic voters nationwide are our best effort to answer it.
The polls, like our other surveys this cycle, show Mr. Trump doing exceptionally well for a Republican among Black and Hispanic voters. Overall, Kamala Harris leads Black voters, 78 percent to 15 percent, and Hispanic voters, 56 to 37 percent.
Mr. Trump is performing as good or better than any Republican in recent memory with Black and Hispanic voters, according to almost every metric. According to Times projections, Joe Biden received 92 percent support from Black major-party voters in 2020 and 63 percent from Hispanics.
The poll provides plenty of information on Mr. Trump’s strengths and Ms. Harris’s flaws, but it does not provide a straightforward, clear answer. This may be unsatisfying, but it should come as no surprise. After all, commentators are still discussing whether Mr. Trump’s popularity among white working-class voters is due to the economy, racism, ideology, misogyny, Hillary Clinton’s flaws, or one of countless other explanations. Even after nearly a decade of investigation and the final results, there is still no definitive solution.
The truth is that there are numerous theories, which are difficult to unravel. Here, I’ll present five explanations provided by the survey. This list is not complete – not even close. However, each one has a function in the tale.
Before we continue, keep in mind that, while Mr. Trump is performing significantly better than previous Republicans, he is still far from obtaining a majority of the Black or Hispanic vote. As a result, many of the variables that support Mr. Trump only apply to a small proportion of Black and Hispanic voters. Nonetheless, Democrats have generally won these groups by such large margins that even minor support from Black or Hispanic voters can pave the way for politically significant victories.
- They do not mind the dog whistles.
Liberals regard Mr. Trump’s views on race, crime, and immigration as little more than racist dog whistles.
Many Black and Hispanic voters share similar sentiments, but a surprising percentage hear those dog whistles and appreciate what they hear.
Around 40% of Black voters and 43% of Hispanic voters support building a wall along the southern border. Similarly, 45 percent of Hispanic voters and 41 percent of Black voters favor deporting undocumented immigrants.
Half of Hispanic voters and nearly half — 47 percent — of Black voters believe that crime in big cities is a severe problem that has spiraled out of control. That is roughly the same as the proportion of white voters (50 percent) who think the same.Support for Mr. Trump’s beliefs goes beyond race and immigration. The majority of Black and Hispanic voters appear to support his “America First” foreign policy, which suggests that America should focus less on problems abroad and more on domestic issues. Previous Times/Siena polls have revealed that a sizable proportion of Black and Hispanic voters support Mr. Trump on trade as well.
To put it another way, there are many aspects of Mr. Trump’s basic populist, conservative platform that appeal to a substantial number of Black and Hispanic voters.
- They are not upset and may even be entertained.
Of course, Mr. Trump hasn’t only employed dog whistles in his campaigns. He occasionally used a bullhorn.
During his tenure in national politics, he has outraged millions of Black and Hispanic people, most recently by claiming that Haitian refugees feed cats and dogs and that undocumented immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.”
However, a large proportion of Black and Hispanic voters aren’t as offended.
Overall, 20% of Black voters believe those who are offended by Mr. Trump take him too seriously, while 78% believe people have valid reasons to be offended.
Similarly, 40 percent of Hispanic voters believe those who are outraged by Mr. Trump take his statements too seriously, while 55 percent believe there is a valid cause for their offense. And, critically, only roughly one-third of Hispanic voters believe Mr. Trump is referring to them when discussing immigration issues.
Why aren’t more Black and Hispanic voters offended by Donald Trump? One probable explanation: He hasn’t offended them as much recently.
While most people have been insulted by Mr. Trump at some point, a sizable 53 percent of Hispanics and 35 percent of Black voters said nothing he said recently was objectionable. Those numbers are down from earlier this year — possibly the remarks about Haitian refugees played a role — but I believe more voters would have answered they were upset recently if we had asked the same question during the 2016 campaign.
Another factor: Mr. Trump appears to be entertaining a substantial number of Black and Hispanic voters.
