The public’s trust in President Trump’s economic policies remained consistently high throughout his first year in office. Public perceptions of his economic performance, however, have swiftly emerged as his most apparent possible weakness in the early stages of his second term.
Prior to last week’s stock market shock, when Trump admitted his trade policy may cause a recession, many public surveys had already indicated that Trump’s approval rating for economic management was lower than his overall performance rating as president.
This is a complete and utter change from Trump’s first term, when surveys conducted by AWN/SRSS, Gallup, or CNBC consistently found that the public was more satisfied with his economic policies than with his overall performance.
In contrast, Gallup discovered in an early February poll this year that, for the first time, fewer people gave Trump favorable scores on the economy than on his overall performance. What’s more, his economic grades were worse than they had been throughout his first four years in office. For the first time in either of his presidential terms, Trump’s approval rating on the economy (44%), according to the AWN/SRSS poll that was released on Wednesday, fell just short of his overall approval rating (45%). This matched the lowest approval rating for economic policies recorded in the survey during Trump’s first four years in office. Even when it comes to other big issues like immigration and foreign policy, the public’s opinion of Trump’s economic performance has consistently lagged behind since January.
Opinions of Trump’s economic management are still very much up in the air at this early stage of his presidency. More Americans cared about his stance on inflation than any other subject on Election Day, and pollsters believe that most of us are prepared to give him more time to address it. (The most recent official report on inflation was published on Wednesday, and it showed a little slower increase than anticipated.) Compared to this time in his first term, Trump’s overall job approval is marginally higher in many surveys, but it is still lower than it has been for any newly inaugurated president in modern polling history at this point in time.
A red flag for Trump, meanwhile, is the fact that his economic approval has reversed the pattern from his first term. The same dissatisfaction with inflation that undermined Joe Biden’s popularity might eventually do the same to Trump if he is unable to reduce prices. This is especially true given that most people do not perceive Trump as placing the same priority on inflation as they do themselves, according to polls.
According to long-time Democratic pollster Nick Gourevitch, “It’s a red flag for him” since public support for Trump’s economic policies has declined so quickly in his second term. While there were many other issues at play in the election, economics and inflation ranked first in every survey and among the influential groups that shifted their support to Trump. That was the reform that people wanted to see implemented. Therefore, it’s an issue for him if that remains unchanged, since that is the direction that the people who elected you intended you to go.
As Trump weathered storms on other fronts throughout his first term in office, the public’s faith in the economy served as a stabilizing factor, giving him a solid foundation on which to build. These preliminary results, which come at the beginning of Trump’s second term, indicate that economic anxiety has become a political liability for the president, and that his support may soon be capped.
Potential dangers in the next elections
If Trump’s repeated claims that he will violate the Constitutional restriction of two terms as president are not genuine, he will never again be on the ballot. However, with the increasing polarization of American politics, the popularity rating of a president has become an extremely important consideration in presidential elections. For example, in 2018, exit surveys revealed that Republicans were favored by almost as many people who liked of Trump as those who disapproved of his performance, and that Democrats were favored by nine out of ten voters who disapproved of his performance. Vice President Kamala Harris was running against Biden in 2024, but he was not on the ballot. However, more than 80% of voters who were unhappy with his performance also voted against her. Until 2028, the Republican Party’s odds of winning each election will improve in relation to Trump’s strength, and the Democrats’ chances of winning will decrease.
Voters’ opinions on the economy will play a vital role in determining the president’s strength, as they have for every president before him.
Polls reveal that Americans’ pessimism about the economy persists, despite Trump’s portrayal of his second term as the start of a new “golden age” for the nation.
After Trump’s election last November, there was an uptick in economic confidence, according to the venerable Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan. This optimism was mostly caused by Republicans’ enhanced views. In contrast, the index dropped noticeably in February, the first month of Trump’s second term, and fell even lower than it did in the last months of Biden’s administration. A dramatic decline in Americans’ expectations for the future more than made up for a little improvement in the public’s evaluation of the present economic situation in the survey in February compared to last autumn. Respondents are more gloomy about their own financial prospects in the coming year than they were at any time in 2024, according to research out of the University of Michigan. The percentage of people who think the economy would be in a bad place in a year’s time also increased dramatically between January and February, according to the latest AWN poll.
It is not hard to determine where this ongoing discomfort originates from. Inflation predictions increased in January and February, according to the most recent University of Michigan poll. More than three quarters of Americans complained that their salaries were falling behind inflation in a CBS/YouGov nationwide survey conducted at the end of February. (White, Black, and Latino respondents all came up with similarly depressing findings when asked that question.) At about the same time, a poll by NPR, PBS-News, and Marist found that over 80% of Americans anticipated a rise in food costs during the next six months.
Is Trump no longer paying attention?
Roberts shares the view of many Republican strategists that Trump’s supporters are getting precisely what they wanted out of the tidal wave of changes he has ushered into domestic and foreign policy. By and large, Roberts believes his core followers are receiving what seems like a deluge of new directions with open arms. “This is what the people who voted for wanted.”
Democrats, on the other hand, view Trump’s scandal as a potential weakness. It sends the message to voters that he is no longer concerned about inflation, which is their number one issue, according to them.
Voters consider the central issue to be the most essential, and nothing in his first two weeks has addressed it, according to Gourevitch. “It seems like Trump isn’t giving much of a speech about costs and inflation.”
That analysis is backed by polls. Almost three-quarters of adults and two-thirds of independents in Wednesday’s AWN/SRSS poll felt that Trump hasn’t given enough focus to the most pressing issues facing the nation. Most strikingly, a CBS News survey from late February revealed that just under a third of Americans thought that Trump was giving top priority to either the economy or inflation, even while four out of five Americans said that Trump should make these issues his top priority.
According to that CBS survey, the majority of respondents said that Trump’s main priorities include reducing the government workforce and immigration, two issues that were important to his supporters. Campbell maintains that the ongoing strain on voters’ cost of living is more important than any opinion they may have on the Elon Musk-led drive to cut federal agencies.
If dissatisfaction with inflation continues, Trump may have some support from his steadfast following, his impressive political communication abilities, and the deeply held skepticism about Democrats. Some Democrats have speculated that Trump may try to use tariff income or DOGE savings as a “dividend” to give Americans a direct payment bearing his name, similar to what he did during COVID.
Inflation eats away at even the strongest economies, and Trump’s first weeks back in the White House have shown that. As time goes on and prices stay high, Trump could find it just as difficult, if not more so, as Biden to maintain high popularity ratings.
