Democracy made a comeback in 2022. Will the political system that is the worst among them all maintain its advantage in the coming year?
Voters in the US rejected Donald Trump’s election-denying radical candidates in the midterm elections last year; as a result, the former President’s reelection campaign, which is predicated on lies about 2020, is now in an existential crisis. Additionally, Congress established a new law that will make it more difficult for ungrateful presidents like Trump to alter the Constitution. Brazilian voters removed one of Trump’s protégés, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, dealing another blow to populist radicalism. And in April, far-right contender Marine Le Pen lost to French President Emmanuel Macron.
Autocrats lost ground in several nations last year as democracies emerged as resilient systems. Chinese President Xi Jinping was humiliated by widespread uproar shortly after winning an unconventional third term and was forced to drop the divisive “Zero Covid” policy. A ferocious protest movement in Iran is still causing instability for the clerical administration. And Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ill-fated “special operation” in Ukraine, which elevated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the status of a fighter for democracy and resurrected the West’s Cold War alliance, revealed the dangers of surrounding yourself with yes men.
The adversaries of democracy are not going to stop. There is no indication that the difficulties Moscow, Tehran, or Beijing are encountering will make it easier for them to hold onto power. Even in the US, Trump is planning a comeback, and a Republican majority in the US House of Representatives—dominated by lawmakers who refused to certify President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020—is about to take control.
However, those who believed that democracy was in peril in 2022 were in for a shock. A voter registering their ballot in a voting booth or a protester willing to risk their life to exercise their right to do so still has the same simple, yet potent, enchantment.
Here are the political trends that will shape American politics in the interim.
Washington is preparing for a new period of divided government that is likely to bring political investigations, showdowns, shutdowns, and the start of the 2024 presidential campaign.
Here are some predictions for how the year will develop.
The radical conservatives who now dominate the House Republican majority will attempt to stifle Biden’s administration and destroy his chances of winning re-election. Pro-Trump conservatives have already demonstrated their determination by pushing McCarthy’s quest for speaker to the very limit. The inability to govern could make a potential showdown with the White House over extending the US borrowing ceiling later this year disastrous for the economy.
• Remember Attorney General Merrick Garland when he makes one of the most crucial decisions in contemporary politics by deciding whether to accuse Trump of a crime. Trial of the former president would reopen old political wounds and further tarnish the politicalization of the judicial and governance systems by Trump. However, if no charges are filed, it might create a precedent that grants former presidents impunity and undermines the idea that everyone is treated equally under the law.
Trump has thrown America into the next presidential election, whether you like it or not. However, his shaky start, whining about his defeat in the 2020 race, and the unimpressive performance of his hand-picked candidates who refused to concede the midterm elections damaged his image. There are developing potential alternative Republican leaders for populist, nationalist culture war politics, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Meanwhile, Biden might provide Americans with a fresh chapter in history by running for re-election as a president who is over 80. The fact that he has already defeated Trump is his strongest card. However, he might not benefit from that in his fight with a younger rival like DeSantis.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia demonstrated how world events can alter the course of an American president. However, as the fight rages on, Biden’s ability to keep it from degenerating into a calamitous conflict between Russia and NATO will be put to the test again. He has a lot on his plate: A run-in between a Chinese and US military jet over the holiday period in the South China Sea provides a hint as to how things could escalate there. And the nuclear crises with Iran and North Korea are becoming worse.
• In 2022, historically low unemployment rates coexisted with 40-year high inflation, falling stock markets, and a strange economic mix. Whether the Federal Reserve’s harsh interest rate medication, intended to lower living costs, can result in a soft landing without starting a recession, will be the fundamental topic for 2023.
