Donald Trump is the first former president to face criminal charges. With that decision by a New York grand jury, as well as the other high-profile criminal cases involving Trump, you might believe his political future is jeopardised.
However, many Republican politicians appear unwilling to attack the former president, instead focusing on Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who initiated the charges, and betting markets continue to favour Trump winning the Republican candidature in 2024.
So, what exactly is going on? We are clearly in an unprecedented scenario, and the political reality may alter with the indictment.
Yet, Republicans and bettors are likely to react to three facts:
While an indictment loomed, Trump’s polling lead in the GOP primary for 2024 grew.
Most Republicans believe that all of Trump’s investigations are politically motivated.
The vast majority of Trump fans are unconcerned about his general election viability.
According to recent surveys from Fox News, Monmouth University, and Quinnipiac University, Trump’s Republican primary prospects have improved. In March, all polls showed Trump ahead by double digits, with his margin over his nearest challenger – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, an undeclared 2024 contender – rising by 12 points since February.
According to a Quinnipiac poll released this week, only 18% of registered Republican voters believed Trump’s allegations in the alleged hush money plot in New York were extremely or somewhat serious. The majority (53%) thought they weren’t serious at all.
The fact that the indictment is now a real (rather than possible) event may sway some minds, albeit probably not as many as you might imagine.
In the same Quinnipiac poll, most Republicans (and, indeed, a majority of all Americans) did not believe the individual levelling the claims (Bragg) was an unbiased observer. Almost every Republican (93%) believed his case was primarily driven by politics. The majority of voters (63%) agreed.
Indeed, when it comes to any indictment, Republicans appear to have taken a pro-Trump stance. A recent Marist College survey questioned respondents which of the several Trump investigations they thought was more fair: that they were fair or that they were a “witch hunt.”
While 55% of all voters thought they were fair, only 18% of Republicans and 14% of 2020 Trump voters agreed. The investigations, according to the majority of Republicans (80%) and 2020 Trump voters (84%), are a “witch hunt.”
The survey results are consistent with what we know about Republican attitudes of the fundamental information at the heart of the various investigations.
Apart from the New York case, polls suggest that a majority of Republicans feel Trump committed no criminal in his efforts to reverse the 2020 election result. Similarly, polling shows that most Republicans believe Trump was righteous in his efforts, with a majority still believing the myth that Joe Biden won the election solely due to voter fraud.
Of course, Republicans’ belief that these charges are politically motivated is only part of the picture.
The other factor is how Republicans perceive Trump in the context of the general electorate. Republicans may believe Trump is innocent while yet believing that his legal difficulties would hurt him in the general election. After all, the majority of voters believe the investigations are fair.
But, polls suggest that when it comes to making primary choices, Republican voters prioritise agreement on issues over electability. In our most recent AWN/SSRS poll, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents answered that defeating Biden was a higher priority than agreement on issues by a 59% to 41% margin.
Trump’s fans were no exception. Sixty-one percent felt issue agreement is more important than electability, while 39% disagreed.
This is a significant departure from the 2020 Democratic primary. By March 2020, 73% of Biden supporters said electability was more important than issue agreement.
To put it another way, Biden’s appeal to Democratic voters was based on electability, whereas Trump’s case to Republicans was not.
This could explain why Trump maintains his advantage, despite the fact that a majority of Republicans believe that other potential nominees have a better chance of defeating Biden. According to a February Marist poll, 54% of Republicans believed that someone other than Trump would give the GOP the best chance of retaking the White House in 2024.
Of fact, Republican voters’ assessments this year may not be entirely incorrect. Despite all of his possible electability issues, Trump has led Biden in more general election surveys in the early part of the 2024 season than he did in the whole 2020 cycle. According to the same polling, DeSantis performs somewhat better against Biden than Trump, which corresponds to what the majority of Republicans believe.
The main concern now is what will happen now that Trump has been indicted. Will Republicans continue to back him up? Will Trump’s electability become more important if his poll numbers against Biden deteriorate significantly?
We don’t know the answers, but we can conclude that the current political environment isn’t hurting Trump in the Republican primary.
