Secretary of State Antony Blinken wishes to reschedule his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Beijing is turning his back on him.
After a Chinese surveillance balloon crossed U.S. skies in February, the Biden administration cancelled Blinken’s planned trip to Beijing, but has since attempted to revive high-level negotiations. This includes delaying the Blinken travel, as well as planning other trips by top US officials and a phone call between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, according to current and former US officials.
According to the sources, China is rebuffing US efforts, and its readiness to fully participate may rest on the drama surrounding Wednesday’s meeting in California between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Beijing’s present resistance to extended high-level contact highlights the exceptionally tense character of US-Chinese relations in recent months. What began as a two-sided effort to settle an increasingly turbulent relationship has evolved into Washington reaching out and the Chinese authorities declining.
Beijing is growing increasingly unhappy of the United States’ arms sales to Taiwan and formal relations, which it claims promote Taiwan’s pro-independence groups.
The cancellation of high-level meetings between the United States and China is always fraught with diplomatic drama. Nonetheless, the United States has historically preferred reliable connections with key rivals such as China and Russia. Some US officials are concerned that Beijing’s thin-skinned diplomacy is impeding vital communication between the adversaries, which may have global ramifications in the event of a serious crisis.
“The Chinese have been hesitant to engage in discussions about confidence-building, crisis communications, or hotlines,” National Security Council Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said last week at a Center for a New American Security event. “Since our soldiers work in close proximity, we will face increased obstacles.”
The cancelled Blinken trip is a perfect example of the United States’ engagement constraints. But U.S. officials dubbed that decision a deferral and have emphasised the U.S. isn’t severing off relations with China.
Beijing, on the other hand, sees the planned Tsai-McCarthy summit as an intolerable escalation.
According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, the gathering “undermines China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
The pace and zeal with which China reengages on a high level with US leaders may be determined by how McCarthy and Tsai publicise their encounter.
If the Tsai-McCarthy visit appears too formal and elaborate, presenting Tsai in a role that China denies exists, Beijing may extend its freeze on high-level US diplomats.
According to Craig Singleton, senior China scholar at the Center for Defense of Democracies, Tsai and McCarthy “must manage a delicate balancing act: one that telegraphs solidarity without giving Beijing licence to respond.”
Tsai’s previous “transit visits” (she’s made seven so far) have likewise enraged China, but diplomatic relations have rapidly recovered. According to Steve Orlins, head of the National Committee on US-China Relations, a Tsai-McCarthy encounter without the formal trappings of a “official” visit means that “diplomatic exchanges should begin” once Tsai returns to Taipei.
China is also pushing back hard on the suggestions for a Xi-Biden call.
Last month, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that the White House hoped to make a decision after the annual meeting of China’s parliament ended on March 13. China’s Foreign Ministry responded by emphasising that Beijing was not in a rush to re-connect the two leaders. “Communication should not be done just to communicate,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters. Wang said the White House needed to “show sincerity… to assist bring China-US relations back on track.”
einsteineruploaded with. Beijing has not openly commented. Kirby also stated that Biden’s administration wishes to facilitate a travel to China by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, as well as put Blinken’s trip to China “back on the calendar.” China’s Commerce Ministry has said it “welcomes Secretary Yellen’s hope for a visit to China” and that it’s “open to Raimondo’s willingness to travel,” but had yet to receive formal notification of Raimondo’s intentions. However, the Chinese government has not suggested when Yellen, Raimondo, or Blinken would visit China.
In response to a White House request for comment, a senior administration official said in a statement on Tuesday, “We have been keeping open lines of communication with the [People’s Republic of China] on shared issues of concern in the United States-China relationship, and we will continue to do so.”
The Biden administration is communicating with Chinese counterparts on routine business. A US official and a former State Department official familiar with the matter acknowledged that a Blinken visit and a Biden call with Xi were discussed with Chinese officials. According to the former State Department official, the present talks are primarily mid-level discussions on routine operational matters.
The US official and the former State Department official, like others interviewed in this piece, requested anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic concerns.
There have been sporadic encounters with high officials, but not sufficient to reestablish meaningful discussion. Sullivan talked with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi last week, and the former State official highlighted that “it is an important channel, but used rarely” due to the sensitivity of such communications. According to the former official, overall interactions would improve once China’s new ambassador in Washington, Xie Feng, is fully operational.
Following Tsai’s meeting, the two governments may be engaging in some shuttle diplomacy in preparation for a restoration of high-level diplomatic communication. Rick Waters, the US Department of State’s Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for China and Taiwan, visited China covertly this month. Waters’ visit coincided with a visit to Washington by Cui Tiankai, China’s former ambassador to the US.
Cui’s visit, according to one of two persons who verified it, included stops to the State Department and the National Security Council. “We are committed to maintaining open channels of contact in order to handle bilateral ties responsibly,” said a State Department spokesman who was not authorised to speak on the record, without denying Cui’s visit.
The snubs have been piling up. As tensions rose in early February following the US shootdown of the spy balloon, Chinese officials refused to meet with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
And bilateral military crisis communications remain hampered, according to senior administration sources, due to Beijing’s refusal to collaborate with the US on the development of trustworthy technologies that may assist prevent a South China Sea incident from escalating into a military crisis.
Late last year and early this year, Chinese leaders were willing to engage in dialogue with the United States and other Western countries, even going on a charm offensive. This came while China’s economy was failing due to the end of its zero-Covid policy and following a November meeting between Xi and Biden in which the two promised to ease tensions.
einsteineruploaded with. Yet the spy balloon episode forced the administration to reject the visit; U.S. officials said they feared every action Blinken made would be overshadowed by inquiries about the balloon.
Although no trip to China is planned, Blinken will be in Asia in mid-April, according to another US official familiar with his travel arrangements. A quick journey to China would be a simple addition.
Since Biden took office, the administration has struggled to maintain regular, substantive dialogue with the Chinese. Even when communications have occurred, they have frequently yielded little substance, leading US officials to want higher-level meetings, particularly with Xi.
The Chinese leader has substantially consolidated authority in the autocratic system, so what he says is far more important than what his subordinates say. In the fall of 2021, for example, when lower-level conversations failed, US officials successfully pushed for a virtual summit between Xi and Biden.
“We also feel that, given the consolidation of power in Xi Jinping’s hands, leader-level involvement is critical to ensuring effective communication between our two administrations,” a senior administration official said at the time.
If Beijing eventually agrees on a date for Blinken’s visit, it might pave the way for additional dialogue, especially if Blinken gets to meet with Xi.
