With Wednesday’s AWN town hall behind him, former President Donald Trump is both the overwhelming Republican frontrunner for the 2024 nomination and a guy who was found responsible in a legal action this week for sexually abusing and defaming former magazine columnist E. Jean Carroll.
While it is unclear what impact the verdict will have on the Republican primary contest, Trump has increased his polling advantage as a result of the civil lawsuit and his indictment earlier this spring in a separate criminal case involving hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. (Trump has repeatedly denied any misconduct.)
Trump’s lead in Republican voter polls and endorsements from elected leaders is among the strongest for a nonincumbent in the contemporary presidential primary era.
Trump is polling above 50% in national polls of probable GOP primary voters. His closest prospective competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has yet to declare a candidature, is averaging slightly more than 20% of the Republican primary vote. There are no other probable Republican candidates in the double digits.
There are very few candidates in nonincumbent elections from either party who were close or above 50% in national primary surveys this early on. Republicans Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000 are among the few, as are Democrats Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. All of the candidates were nominated by their respective parties, and none of the races were especially close.
Interestingly, none of Trump’s legal troubles have affected him in the polls. Trump received little more than 40% of the vote on average at the start of the year, trailing DeSantis by roughly 10 points. Trump’s margin is currently more than quadruple that, hovering around 30 points on average.
DeSantis’ previous advantages have similarly dwindled. In New Hampshire, for example, where Wednesday’s town hall was held, DeSantis led Trump by 12 points at the start of the year, according to University of New Hampshire polling. Trump now has a 20-point lead among potential GOP primary voters, according to the most recent UNH poll.
Of course, if Trump’s lead was based exclusively on polls, that would be one thing. Polling isn’t always predictive, and some underlying process could cause it to vary. Another major factor working in Trump’s favour is the support of many elected Republicans.
Trump has the support of more than 60 Republican governors and members of Congress. None of the Republicans running or considering running have received more than ten endorsements from elected officials at that level.
The significance of endorsements cannot be overstated. When the party infrastructure rallies behind one candidate, it may often turn a campaign around. On the Democratic side in 2020, for example, erstwhile competitors endorsed Joe Biden ahead of Super Tuesday.
The GOP establishment’s inability to support a single Trump alternative in 2016 was one of the reasons he was able to win the nomination. Elected Republican officials were divided on who they wanted to be the nominee, and Trump took advantage of this schism.
This time, the possibility of the establishment coalescing around a non-Trump candidate isn’t as viable. Since 1980, anyone with a similar number of endorsements as Trump has at this time in the primary process has won their party’s candidature.
What would it take for Trump to lose his position as front-runner?
The 1980 Democratic presidential primary could provide us with some insight. It is the first time in modern history where a nonincumbent (Sen. Ted Kennedy) polled above 45% and did not go on to become his party’s nominee.
Events on the ground trumped Kennedy’s bid. Following the start of the Iran hostage crisis, then-President Jimmy Carter rallied to secure the Democratic nomination. A once-clear lead for Kennedy became a significant Carter edge almost overnight.
The key distinction here is that there is no incumbent in the Republican primary for 2024. Still, Trump might be involved in a variety of events.
We don’t know how Republicans will react to Trump’s civil court loss, which he has stated he will appeal. We don’t know what will happen if he is found guilty in a criminal prosecution over the hush money payments. (He is attempting to have the case transferred to federal court after being accused by a Manhattan grand jury with 34 felony counts of fabricating company documents.) We don’t know what will happen if he is indicted in other instances around the country relating to his efforts to change the 2020 election results, his actions leading up to the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and his handling of confidential data.
The biggest question is how Republican voters would react if DeSantis enters the race. If and when he genuinely begins campaigning, voters may view him differently.
Trump, however, is far ahead for the time being. It will take a major event to dethrone him from the top of the Republican polls.
