The presidential debate, which Donald Trump shunned, and other campaign trail traditions will likely take a back seat to the courtroom as the crucial moments of the 2024 election play out, as Donald Trump’s day trip to an Atlanta jail on Thursday will demonstrate.
It’s hard to imagine a time when the frontrunner for a major party nomination would skip the first televised showdown between candidates before turning himself in the next day on his fourth criminal accusation. But that’s the truth as a historic presidential election plays out in the shadow of Trump’s legal trouble, thanks to his incredible dominance in the GOP primary that, at least for the time being, permits him to disregard all the conventional rules of campaigning.
Candidates for the White House have utilised debates like Wednesday night’s heated Republican Party debate in the pivotal swing state of Wisconsin for decades. It was rife with heated exchanges between antagonists on topics like abortion and other simmering personal feuds. When 38-year-old businessman Vivek Ramaswamy provided pat responses to questions from former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Christie lost his cool. Although Florida Governor Ron DeSantis looked to steady his campaign after a series of blunders prompted criticism and speculation that he is in free fall, he did not have the breakout moment some may have hoped for as the candidate polling in second.
While Trump is so far ahead in the GOP primary that he has nothing to lose by not attending the melee in Milwaukee, the event played out like a prize fight without the reigning champion. The discussion became, at most, a tryout for second place in a contest that, at this rate, would almost certainly give Trump his third straight Republican nomination.
The Fox News-hosted discussion highlighted the impossibility of the central dilemma in the GOP contest, as the network has amplified many of Trump’s bogus claims that he won the 2020 election. It’s difficult for other major candidates to capitalise on Trump’s legal troubles without alienating primary supporters, many of whom view the prosecutions lined up against the former president as politically motivated even if they are open to a different nominee.
Even if his refusal to debate his ideas in front of voters on live television reeks of the same disrespect for democracy that has left him with four criminal indictments, the ex-president may have gained by staying away.
The crowd boos as Christie criticises Trump.
The atmosphere in the debate hall heated up quickly when co-moderator Bret Baier brought up “the elephant not in the room,” and the audience booed loudly any candidate who was critical of the ex-president. Taking on Trump over indictments he has successfully labelled as political persecution was met with a backlash, reflecting the fact that doing so is not likely to win you any points in the Republican primary.
The debate within this party is necessary before we can make progress on the issues. Christie shouted above the jeers, “We have to dispense with the person who said we have to suspend with the Constitution to advance his political career.” However, the former New Jersey governor, who polls in the low single digits, is hurting his chances in the primary contest by taking such a hard line, as the debate eloquently demonstrated. That’s why, following the previous election, most contenders sidestepped condemning Trump’s attempt to reverse democracy, instead accusing the Biden administration of politicising the law and avoiding commenting on the seriousness of the accusations he faces.
For instance, DeSantis has griped that Republicans should stop discussing the events of January 6, 2021 and start planning for the inauguration of the next president on January 20, 2025. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) has said that Vice President Joe Biden is “weaponizing justice” by using it to attack Trump. It didn’t take former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley long to shift gears and make the case that the time has come for the next generation to take over. Vice President Mike Pence, who presided over the Congressional certification of the 2020 election results, was more direct in his defence of his decision not to accede to Trump’s demands to steal the election. He demanded that I prioritise him over the Bill of Rights. Pence declared, “I chose the Constitution, and I always will.” The view of many of Trump’s followers that the ex-vice president was disloyal, though, limits his potential in the contest.
Ramaswamy’s promise to use presidential pardon powers to spare the former president if he is convicted received boisterous cheers from the crowd since there are more clearer incentives in the GOP for standing with Trump.
There appears to be little hope for candidates like Christie who are prepared to speak the truth about Trump and confront the backlog of criminal cases that could affect him among more moderate general election voters. Nobody is slowing down the ex-president, not even those who dance around the topic like DeSantis, who suggests that Trump could be a liability in 2024 but is loathe to criticise his behaviour. On the one hand, DeSantis might not gain much by criticising the front-runner’s massive support base. But it’s hard to see how he catches Trump if he can’t attack Trump’s greatest weakness.
The plan to ignore Trump’s legal troubles in the hopes that he will eventually collapse is failing.
Even Trump can’t miss his Thursday rendezvous with the president.
There, in Fulton County, Georgia, where he and 18 co-defendants have been indicted over an attempt to steal Biden’s 2020 victory, Trump will be confronted with a visual illustration of the liabilities he would bring into a general election as the Republican nominee.
It would be a shocking moment in American history if Trump were to be fingerprinted and given a mug shot like the other defendants. On Wednesday, former Trump attorney and 9/11 hero mayor Rudolph Giuliani turned himself up on a $150,000 bond. In a strange turn of events, the man who earned his name in the 1980s prosecuting Mafia dons using similar racketeering statutes as he is now charged with stared into a camera for his mug shot.
Trump has successfully used his repeated indictments as a political shield, capitalising on the unwavering support he has received from GOP primary voters. He has skillfully combined his defence plan with his political campaign, suggesting that he sees winning the presidency as his greatest chance of delaying his upcoming trials and any convictions. In addition, he has not stopped attacking the rule of law or stopping repeating the falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Four times I was accused of a crime. Complete and utter inanity. Bullsht. In an interview that appeared during the debate on X, the social site formerly known as Twitter, Trump told former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, “It’s all bullsht.”
Under normal conditions, candidates like DeSantis, Haley, and Pence, who all had their moments in combative exchanges that may go viral on social media, would have received widespread media coverage for days following the GOP battle in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, all of the candidates lay out arguments on subjects like the economy, immigration, and national security that reflect many of the worries stated by regular Republicans at their events.
The sight of Trump’s private jet bearing his name en route to Georgia for processing at the Fulton County jail is sure to overshadow the rest of the race and likely infuriate pro-Trump fans and other primary voters who believe he is being persecuted. In light of this, it was unclear whether any of the eight candidates who debated on stage on Wednesday night managed to close the massive gap that existed between Trump and the rest of the pack.
Trump supporter and Florida representative Matt Gaetz told reporters that the real movement will come from lower in the field and that Trump would not pay a price for his no-show. I think Ramaswamy will go up to second position in almost all major polls,” Gaetz said.
Ken Cuccinelli, who served in Trump’s cabinet but is now supporting DeSantis, suggested that the Florida governor had taken advantage of Trump’s absence to strengthen ties with Republican supporters. “People in the Republican Party feel like they know President Trump; they have an understanding of the guy,” Cuccinelli said, adding that DeSantis, in part through a performance that benefited from his long bus tours through Iowa and New Hampshire, got a head start on forming his own bond with voters at the debate.
DeSantis, according to Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan, was under intense pressure coming into the debate due to his campaign missteps but had a solid strategy in place. Kall stated, “He was smartest by avoiding the fray,” referring to Ramaswamy’s decision to stay out of the fray despite continuous attacks from Pence and Christie in particular. “And on the Trump point, he understood that this audience has no penchant for attacking Trump with him not being there,” Kall said.
What about the next GOP debate, which will take place at the Ronald Reagan library in California next month? Will Trump keep to his tactic of refusing to promote his competitors by standing with them on stage?
Kall promised that there would be “no Atlanta surrender and counterprogramming” in the upcoming debate. At the very least, it makes him wonder if I should make an appearance.
