In the run-up to the Republican presidential primary in 2024, we have entered the home stretch. Nikki Haley appears to be gaining ground to become Donald Trump’s main opponent, even though Trump remains at the top of every major poll.
On the other hand, is Haley’s nomination a genuine possibility? She seems to have a workable plan, as evidenced by past events.
The negative news for the ex-governor of South Carolina should be first. A number of polls show that Trump’s support exceeds 60%, while her national approval rating remains around 10%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in the middle of the pack, with 15% of the vote, and she’s 50 points behind the former president.
No candidate has ever won the nomination despite being so far behind in national surveys at this stage of the primary calendar as Haley is right now.
However, primary elections are not matters of national importance. Voting patterns in one state can be influenced by the outcomes of the states that came before it because these contests are sequential.
Republican candidates will face off in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Despite Trump’s nationwide lead, his margin of victory is narrower in each of these states.
In an Iowa poll conducted in late October by the Des Moines Register, Trump got 43% of the vote, while Haley and DeSantis both had 16%. It’s a significant lead. It can be overcome.
Prior to the caucuses, both Republican George H.W. Bush in 1980 and Democratic Dick Gephardt in 1988 were trailing by a minimum of twenty points. Iowa was won by both of them.
But Haley can still get the GOP nominee even if she loses Iowa. A boost from the Hawkeye State is just what Hillary needs.
Gary Hart, a Democrat, was the victim of that in 1984. In Iowa, he came in second, much behind Walter Mondale, but he performed better than predicted before the caucuses.
In fact, looking at how candidates fared in Iowa and New Hampshire before the primary is the surest approach to guess how the Granite State primary will turn out.
In 1984, Hart won the New Hampshire primary in large part because of his outstanding showing in Iowa. He joined an elite group of just two candidates since 1980 to win the country’s first primary after overcoming a polling disadvantage of 20 points or more. (In 1996, the other was Republican Pat Buchanan.)
In theory, Haley could do what Hart did if she can gather more momentum in the next month. Remember that the Des Moines Register poll found that approximately 75% of Iowans who did not back Trump were still unsure, leaving Haley with a lot of wiggle room.
Although it will be challenging, she can attain the same level of success in New Hampshire as Hart.
In New Hampshire, as almost everywhere else, Trump maintains a lead over Haley in the polls. Even while his lead was much less than in other crucial states, according to our most recent AWN study, which was carried out by the University of New Hampshire. Compared to Haley, Trump had a 42% advantage.
Also, just 29% of New Hampshire voters who aren’t Trump supporters claim they can’t change their minds about the state’s upcoming election. Among them are 25% of Chris Christie’s backers; he came in third in our AWN poll when asked to rank his preferred candidate among primary voters, and he received 14% of the vote.
When asked specifically who they would choose as the former New Jersey governor’s running mate, Haley received 53% of the vote, while Trump received 11%. Who can say what his current supporters will think when the vote rolls around? Christie is polling below 5% nationally and in Iowa, and he might not even make it to the GOP debate this week.
The candidates described above who managed to overcome 20-point deficits in the first two races did not, of course, succeed in securing the nomination.
But in 1984, Hart was quite near. Even though he was behind the former vice president by almost 40 points nationally at this stage of the campaign, he only lost the cumulative national primary vote by a few points to Mondale. It was more than Haley needed, as he had to beat out a slew of other national contenders as well, such as Jesse Jackson, John Glenn, and George McGovern.
When compared to Hart, Haley has one more advantage. South Carolina, where Haley was governor, will be the site of the third GOP race in the coming year.
Among South Carolinians, a November Winthrop University poll found that Trump had a 48% lead against Haley. Of particular note is the fact that among Republicans, his extremely positive approval rating (52%) is quite close to Haley’s (38%). This statistic frequently has a strong correlation with primary support, so that’s crucial to note.
It’s easy to see how Haley may make up ground in her native state. The issue remains, though, as to whether she can maintain this level of success in other states. Everything will change if she is able to.
Even though it will be a long and difficult road, Haley does have a path. She has a lot of comebacks to pull off. There’s a good reason why nobody has gone down that road before.
