Joe Biden’s public collapse has done Donald Trump a great favour.
As the first contests of the 2024 GOP presidential election begin, Biden’s dismal polling performance has helped Trump and undermined his Republican rivals, who are now displaying a neon sign stating, “TRUMP CAN WIN.”
Two outside factors have helped Trump gain ground in the Republican nomination race, while it’s possible that his popularity among GOP voters already gave him a leg up.
Two things have happened: first, Trump’s rallying support has been boosted by the indictments from Democratic prosecutors and the Justice Department, which was expected, and second, Biden’s dismal polling has rendered any argument about Trump’s electability moot.
One way is to use deceitful advertisements, which the Democrats used in 2022 to target susceptible MAGA opponents; another is to exploit your opponent’s tremendous weakness to your advantage, making him more attractive to his supporters.
Republicans who are still on the fence about Trump have always doubted his winning potential, rather than his policies, the efficacy of his administration, or behaviour following the 2020 election.
When Republicans failed to deliver in the 2022 elections, and Trump was personally responsible for that failure, his party standing took a hit. In the wake of Florida’s Ron DeSantis landslide, a seemingly compelling argument has emerged: either continue to support Trump and risk losing, or support the youthful, inexperienced governor and increase your chances of winning.
Another perk of the electability argument was that it avoided discussing Trump’s less appealing qualities, which is something that the majority of Republicans would rather not hear. Criticism of him or his goals is not intended by stating he can’t win. This is an argument based on practicality, not ethics. Also, a tone of sadness is more appropriate than rage while offering it.
The polls haven’t cooperated because of Biden’s decline, which is the main concern.
To back up his claims of unwavering public support, Trump frequently resorted to using questionable sources in 2016, such as Drudge polls. At least this time, he has the backing of the industry’s most respected surveys.
There has been a near-total collapse of Biden. In addition to underperforming on nearly every key topic and losing in ballot tests to Trump, supermajorities believe he is too elderly to serve again, and his approval rating is near rock bottom.
Since Jimmy Carter or George H.W. Bush, he has been the most ineffective sitting president.
Trump has a four-point edge over Biden in a two-way hypothetical contest and a six-point lead in a field with more than one candidate, according to the most recent Wall Street Journal survey. A mere 37% think Biden is doing a good job, while 61% think he is failing. The approval rating of “Bidenomics” is below 30%.
When it comes to the economy, inflation, crime, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and the border, Trump is in the lead by double digits. When it comes to mental preparedness, he’s 16 points ahead, and when it comes to physical stamina, he’s 34 points ahead. People also feel that Trump’s policies benefited them by 49% to 37%, whereas Biden’s policies harmed them by 25% to 53%.
Is this merely a momentary surge in support for Trump that won’t last? Very possibly. However, polls never showed Trump ahead in 2020.
The Wall Street Journal poll seemed to be punctuated when CNN released a poll showing Trump with a 5 point advantage in Georgia and an astounding 10 point edge in Michigan.
Many Republicans may soon come to the realisation that they could run Perry Johnson or Ryan Binkley next year and still come out on top, adding to their already inflated perception of Trump’s political strength. Since 2024 is already a done deal, there’s no need to stress over anything related to Trump, including his dismal electoral record, potential impact on the suburbs, or what happens during his trial next year.
Many Republicans have long held the view that Trump is their best bet for the upcoming presidential race. On this measure, nevertheless, he has been making progress. Up from 48% in September and 45% in July, 54% of Republicans now believe Trump would be the strongest candidate, according to a new Monmouth poll. Trump would be the strongest candidate, according to 41% of Republicans who are backing other candidates.
Regardless of the criminal accusations, Trump’s electability in Iowa has been steadily increasing. Up from 64% in October, nearly 75% of Republicans now believe Trump has a good chance of winning.
I don’t know what DeSantis should do about this. He maintains his position that he will defeat Trump, particularly in the event of the former president’s conviction. The Florida governor isn’t exactly playing the electability card when he’s over 50 points behind Trump nationwide and doing worse than Biden. If Trump continues to lead in polls conducted by media institutions that are antagonistic to him, it will be impossible to persuade any Republican that DeSantis is correct, even if he is correct.
However, for Republicans, the most important concern is whether Trump can win, even though Nikki Haley appears to be doing better than Biden in the polls. Even if another candidate receives a few more points, they will likely still support him because they believe he can.
If Republicans blindly pick Trump based on current polls, Democrats will be ecstatic. But if Biden’s weakness is really an illusion, Republicans will be astonished to realise that Trump isn’t as strong versus Biden as advertised next year.
That could be true, but it’s also possible that Biden’s political career isn’t as bleak as it appears and that he’s actually helping Trump win the Republican nomination and regaining the presidency.
That Trump is lucky in his adversaries is axiomatic among Republicans. If anyone needs proof, Biden could be it.
