Some may associate the terms “insurgent” and “anti-establishment” with Donald Trump’s connection to the Republican Party. Indeed, the corporate magnate and ex-reality TV personality managed to secure the Republican nomination in 2016 despite receiving scant support from GOP lawmakers and governors.
However, that was back in the day, and things are drastically different now, with the 2024 Iowa caucuses less than a month away. Trump is no longer an insurgent.
Actually, Trump has become the establishment, according to the numbers.
Think about the race for endorsements. In what could be a boon to Nikki Haley’s campaign in the first state where Republicans will hold a primary, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu endorsed her last week. Just last month, Ron DeSantis was elated to hear that Kim Reynolds, the governor of Iowa, had endorsed him.
But these cases were out of the ordinary.
A hundred or so governors and lawmakers have endorsed Trump. Both House Speaker Mike Johnson and his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, have shown their support for the former president and his candidature for president.
Only two Republican presidential contenders since 1980—Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000—have garnered more endorsements at this stage in a contest without an incumbent. Bush was a popular governor and the son of a past president, while Dole was a former Senate majority leader and would go on to become the majority leader of the Senate at the same time.
In terms of endorsements, Trump is faring much better than Mitt Romney and John McCain, the two most recent Republican nominees. Notably, both guys were members of the GOP establishment who had previously sought to thwart Trump and whom Trump had now targeted.
When it comes to endorsements for 2024, neither DeSantis nor Haley can be considered serious contenders with Trump. Sununu is one of Haley’s two allies, while DeSantis has just seven governors and lawmakers on his side.
Trump still has over ten times the number of endorsements as Haley and DeSantis combined.
According to past events, Trump should be pleased by the high number of endorsements. He was the Republican nominee in 2016 even though he did not have the most endorsements before the Iowa caucuses.
It would appear that Trump’s 2024 campaign is significantly more establishment-oriented than his 2016 campaign, and it’s not just because of endorsements.
When it comes to Republican fundraising, Trump is now far and away the leader. This political operation of his brought in more than $45 million in the last quarter. With hauls of approximately $11 million and $15 million, respectively, DeSantis and Haley were in last place.
Trump earned a meagre $3.9 million during the same quarter in 2015. When it came to Republican candidates, he didn’t even make the top five. That was due in large part to Trump’s avoidance of fundraising events. Finally, he was a rebellious contender for office.
Trump dropped the rebel guise when he ran for president in 2016 and has kept it ever since.
Trump now resembles Jeb Bush more and more; Bush was the GOP’s top fundraiser during the 2016 presidential campaign, when his super PAC was considered. Similar to McCain and Romney, Bush was a staunch opponent of Trump. The former Florida governor was a favourite target of Trump’s attacks.
Trump leads his opponents even in the polls among the most traditionally establishment-affiliated demographic: White voters with a bachelor’s degree or above.
According to a poll conducted by Monmouth University and published earlier this month, Trump received 41% of the vote among this demographic. His nearest rival, Ron DeSantis, received just 24% of these votes.
At the same time, an AWN/ORC survey discovered that among voters with a bachelor’s degree or above, just 18% supported Trump in the run-up to the 2016 primary.
Those with a master’s degree or higher—the educational category in which Trump performed poorly in 2016—also benefit from Trump’s policies. He was also well-liked by these voters in a recent survey by the Pew Research Centre.
At this moment in time, there aren’t any significant weaknesses in Trump’s support. Neither the establishment nor the most money were on his side in his 2016 victory, yet he still managed to pull it off.
On this occasion, Trump possesses both and continues to be in a strong position to win the Republican race in 2024.
