There has never been a moment in the 2020 campaign when Republican Donald Trump has been ahead of Democratic Joe Biden. More registered voters have put the former president ahead of the current president than the current president does, and this is true even in certain crucial swing states.
These early surveys might be underestimating Biden’s support, though. Pollsters may find that Biden does better when they focus on likely voters rather than all registered voters, which goes against the traditional expected dynamic in which Democrats are supposed to fare better with increased turnout.
If more people vote in the upcoming election, Trump might have a better chance of winning.
Just last month, a poll was published by Siena College and the New York Times. Have a look. The number of registered voters who favoured Trump was 2 points higher. In terms of probable voters, Biden had a two-point lead. Neither of those is out of the question, but when comparing registered voters with likely voters, there is a significant movement of 4 points in favour of Biden.
Although I am hesitant to draw too many conclusions from a single survey, a different pollster came to a similar conclusion. The former president had a 4-point lead among registered voters, according to the average of the previous two surveys conducted by Marquette University Law School. Among likely voters, Biden and Trump were deadlocked. Going from registered to probable voters, there is a four point change in favour of Biden, just like in the Times data.
Similarly, Ann Selzer discovered in an October poll at Grinnell College that people who voted for Biden in 2020 were four points more likely to indicate they would vote for Trump in 2020.
This would be a significant departure from previous experiences. The typical increase for Republicans from registered to likely voters is around 2 percentage points.
Of all, it’s conceivable that the most recent poll results are nothing more than random chance.
Taken together, the most recent elections and the coalitions formed by Biden and Trump in anticipation of a possible rematch do make sense of the 2024 polling.
The Democrats have taken great pride in their recent string of successful special elections. As a matter of fact, in 2023’s special state legislative and federal elections, Democratic candidates are performing around four points higher than Biden in the corresponding seats in 2020.
On the other hand, participation in those extraordinary elections is often smaller. Look at the Virginia state legislature elections that happened earlier in November compared to the special elections. The outcome of the race would determine who would preside over the state senate and the House of Delegates. Even though the Democrats took over both houses, Biden still managed to win Virginia by a margin of ten points in 2020.
By a margin of less than two points, Democrats emerged victorious in the popular vote for both chambers of Congress. That’s over eight percentage points worse than Biden’s 2020 performance in Virginia.
In the same vein, Republicans prevailed in the 2022 midterms by a margin of approximately three points in the House of Representatives. This is a 6 point swing from 2020, when Democrats won the House by approximately 3 points in the popular vote. More people vote in midterms than in special elections.
In that case, why do Republicans fare better when voter turnout is greater?
By 2022, many Democrats had still not recovered from the emotional impact of Roe v. Wade’s overturn. From that point on, the Democrats’ performance in special elections truly stood out.
Even after accounting for demography, there is evidence that Trump voters are more likely to turn out than Biden voters in the current era. This could be the reason behind it.
If we continue with the topic of demography, we will see that political coalitions have changed significantly in recent years.
First and foremost, voters with bachelor’s degrees are increasingly important to the Democratic base. The likelihood that a voter will cast a ballot is positively connected with their level of education.
Typically, White voters are the ones that are singled out when analysts bring up the topic of education as a partisan divide. The education gap seems to be growing wider as a result of this cycle.
To start, compared to four years ago, Trump’s support among Black and Hispanic voters is far higher now. Compared to White voters, this group has a lower percentage of college graduates.
As a second point, Trump is performing better than his opponent among minority voters who do not possess a bachelor’s degree. In the meantime, White voters with bachelor’s degrees continue to support Biden.
A combination of these variables is making the education gap wider and giving Trump an advantage among people who aren’t likely to cast ballots together.
Several polls have shown that Trump is faring better among young voters than he was four years ago, which is another indicator of a generational shift. Across all demographics, younger voters are less likely to cast ballots than older ones; therefore, Biden would do better by exchanging younger voters for older ones.
In the end, there is still a great deal about the year 2024 that remains unknown. However, many long-held beliefs regarding the potential influence of turnout on the election could be proven incorrect if the current trend in the polls continues into next November.
As we head into the uncertain year of 2024, it’s simply another item to keep an eye on.
