After last week’s 30-point victory in the Iowa caucuses, a new AWN survey from the University of New Hampshire suggests that former president Donald Trump is in a commanding lead in the fight for the Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire.
Likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire are 50% for Trump and 39% for his nearest rival, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. Since the last AWN/UNH poll in early January, when Trump had 39% of the vote and Haley had 32%, both candidates have gained support due to the reduction in the number of prominent contestants. New Hampshire University polls show that Trump and Haley have reached their greatest levels of support in the campaign since 2021. Despite Haley’s impressive improvements since the end of last summer, the margin between her and Trump has grown to double digits once again.
Former Florida governor Ron DeSantis endorsed the outgoing president on Sunday, announcing his withdrawal from the race for president. Under the rules of the Republican Party, he could not gain delegates in that state with less than 10% support, yet he polled at a dismal 6%.
Among the early primary states, Trump’s opponents have long seen New Hampshire as their best bet to derail his pursuit of a third consecutive Republican presidential nomination. In this early state, people were generally the most receptive to Trump’s opponents, and surveys continually showed that he did not have majority support. However, the most recent poll indicates that Trump’s support and popularity among Republicans far exceed those of his opponents.
Some of Trump’s opponents have focused on New Hampshire as a potential platform to stand out due to the state’s more moderate pool of potential primary voters and its traditional inclination towards independence, in comparison to other states whose nominating contests take place before Super Tuesday. And those factions have sided with Haley.
She has the backing of 71% of moderates and 58% of undeclared voters (the state’s word for independents) who intend to cast ballots in the Republican primary. Among those who have bachelor’s degrees or above, Haley has a slight advantage over Trump (50% to 38%). While 47% of New Hampshire residents are registered undeclared, 33% have completed some college, and approximately 30% identify as moderate, these demographics only account for a small fraction of the state’s prospective GOP primary votes.
On the other hand, Trump has successfully rallied the more powerful factions within each of those groupings. He enjoys the support of 67% of Republican registration, 71% of conservatives, and 55% of the non-degreed population. And although 74% of Haley’s fans are similarly committed, 88% of Trump’s backers say they have resolved to support him. That means that 45 percent of voters are committed Trump fans, while 30 percent are similarly committed Haley supporters.
About one-fifth of probable Republican primary voters nationwide still haven’t decided who to vote for, even though Tuesday’s election is barely around the corner. At this time, 51% of that group is on Haley’s side, 28% are on Trump’s, and 14% are on DeSantis.
In general, it can be said that the Republican primary voters in New Hampshire are expecting Trump to win on Tuesday (70% believe he will carry the day, compared to 36% for Haley). Additionally, more people would be satisfied with Trump as the party’s presidential nominee than with Haley or DeSantis (61% say they would be enthusiastic or satisfied, compared to 54% for Haley and DeSantis, respectively).
And among primary voters, Trump’s favorability remains higher than that of Haley or DeSantis: 56% have a positive impression of Trump, compared to 36% for Haley and 28% for DeSantis. While Haley finishes the race in negative territory, he is the only remaining contender who has maintained a net positive favorability rating for the past year (New Hampshire).
Similarly, the Republican primary electorate of the state views Trump’s real presidency favourably. Seventy percent of Republicans who are likely to vote in the primary believe that he helped the country more than he hindered it during his first term in office, while 28 percent think the opposite and 2 percent say he didn’t make much of a difference.
In the survey, we were asked to rate Trump on six points: his campaign promises to build a wall along the US-Mexico border, to appoint a special prosecutor to “go after” Joe Biden and his family, to dismantle the “deep state,” to repeal Obamacare and replace it with another health care law, to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and to impose a travel ban for seven countries with a majority of Muslims.
Trump would most likely succeed in constructing the wall (71% say he would definitely or probably succeed in doing so), ending the war between Ukraine and Russia (59%), reimposing the travel ban (56%), and appointing a prosecutor to go after the Biden family (53%), according to the majority of GOP electorate. Removing the deep state from power is far less likely to happen under Trump (39% vs. 34%) than is repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act.
Like other Republicans in the Granite State, most New Hampshire residents believe that if Trump is elected president, he will likely accomplish three things: reimposing the travel ban (58%), hiring a special prosecutor to pursue the Biden family (56%), and constructing the wall (52%). However, opinions on his chances of bringing an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine are strongly divided along party lines. While 71% of Republicans believe he will succeed, only 33% of independents and 8% of Democrats share this view. On the other hand, 79% of Democrats believe that Trump will not even attempt to end the war. And just 26% of Americans, regardless of party, think he would actually replace and repeal the ACA.
The likelihood that Trump may seek or achieve the appointment of a special prosecutor to “go after” Biden and his family is likewise a topic of significant partisan division. A full 90% of Democrats hold this view, whereas 63% of Republicans and 63% of independents share this view. Additionally, 64% of Democrats believe it is very likely that he will succeed, compared to 47% of Republicans and 51% of independents.
