The abortion issue has plagued Republican contenders since Roe v. Wade’s demise, but former president Donald Trump has promised to use his unique negotiation skills to find a solution.
After months of promising to “come together with all groups” and “negotiate something” that would “make both sides happy,” the presumed Republican nominee has finally decided to speak out this week about abortion. He even went so far as to say that “15 weeks seems to be a number that people are agreeing at.”
“For the first time in 52 years, we will end up with peace on that issue,” he declared.
Conservatives, such as Trump’s former counsellor Kellyanne Conway, have lauded the strategy, calling it “a reasonable conversation starter.”
She stated, “It reflects consensus” regarding a 15- or 16-week ban, referencing polling conducted by her own firm. “The public sees the Democrats and the professional, political left as the ones who refuse to compromise, be moderate, or be reasonable.”
The same issue that the rest of the GOP has had is plaguing Trump, despite his criticism of other Republicans for being “inarticulate” on the topic of abortion: Opponents on both sides of the abortion debate are unlikely to reach a compromise.
An ex-GOP political strategist who worked on Trump’s failed 2020 campaign and other presidential campaigns said, “You’re getting the worst of both worlds” by proposing a 15-week moratorium. “Pro-life groups still aren’t going to be happy, and you’re still supporting a nationwide limit that Democrats will attack,” said the strategist, who spoke harshly of the previous president’s stance and was allowed anonymity.
“The public will perceive [the Trump campaign’s] desire to maintain flexibility and maintain the narrative that he will reach a compromise that satisfies everyone, even though this is obviously absurd,” he emphasised.
At a time when Republicans have been grappling with abortion as an electoral wedge issue for the last two years—trying to find a way to talk about it without alienating their base, centrists, or Democrats—Trump has promised to confront the subject. Some Trump backers are worried that the Biden campaign will be able to link him to the most radical anti-abortion activists and give the Democrats the advantage in November if he seems evasive or avoids the subject.
Interviews with anti-abortion activists and GOP strategists show that Trump’s national 15- or 16-week ban is popular with people, but it won’t let Republicans or the ex-president forget about the subject.
Pro-choice advocates contend that the federal government has no business interfering with a woman’s decision to have an abortion, while anti-abortion extremists view any measure short of a complete ban as an unacceptable compromise that would enable the great majority of abortions to continue.
The traditional belief that the majority of voters favour abortion access during the first trimester of pregnancy but are against it thereafter is likewise dissolving in the post-Roe age as individuals confront the practical consequences of state limitations.
Support for a 15-week ban has fallen 12 percentage points in the last year, with 54% of voters being against the measure, according to a new Fox News poll. According to the same survey, Trump’s most important electoral constituencies—older Americans, self-identified conservatives, registered Republicans, and white evangelical Christians—are also the ones most likely to support legalising abortion in all or most cases. For example, in the span of less than two years, the percentage of Republicans’ support rose from 24% to 36%.
In 2023, the 15-week limit was also put to the test in Virginia, where Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin and numerous down-ballot Republicans campaigned on the idea, going so far as to air a $1.4 million statewide ad describing the restrictions as “reasonable” and “commonsense.” After losing the popular vote and the state legislature, Republicans are hoping to repeat the trick this autumn.
Attempt to convince them that this is a reasonable course of action, that fifteen weeks is an adequate middle ground, and that it is compassionate. Mini Timmaraju, president of Reproductive Freedom for All, stated, “But we were able to actively push back and explain to voters that a ban is a ban and exceptions don’t work and this is extremist”. “And ultimately, the people decided to reject Youngkin and the Republicans.”
So far, Trump has attempted to appease both camps by suggesting a nationwide ban around 15 weeks of pregnancy and by claiming, according to his campaign, that the former president thinks it should be at the state level for voters to decide.
Campaign senior adviser Brian Hughes noted that while Trump “supports preserving life,” he has also “made clear that he supports states’ rights” due to his belief in the freedom of people to make their own decisions.
Tragic events have befallen the Republican Party, linking them to anti-abortion stances that are unpopular with the electorate. These include a six-week ban in Florida, a temporary suspension of in vitro fertilisation services at certain clinics in Alabama, and two upcoming decisions by the United States Supreme Court in June that could restrict access to abortion pills across the country and authorise hospitals to refuse pregnant patients in cases of medical emergency, all of which could derail efforts to reach a compromise.
Independent pollsters and Trump backers contend, meanwhile, that this “Art of the Deal” approach is the most viable option given the current political climate. No conservative is likely to abandon the man whose Supreme Court nominees reversed Roe v. Wade, and moderates worried about abortion availability under a second Trump administration may be reassured by compromise promises. The message might influence voters with little knowledge, even according to some abortion-rights activists.
“This just gives a clear statement that he’s not waffling, this is where he stands on abortion, and that’s more than enough to solidify pretty much all aspects of his base,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. Even if it’s not enough to satisfy the evangelicals, he has established his credibility with them. According to them, he is likely to sign a more stringent prohibition if it reaches his desk.
Republicans who are hailing Trump’s proposal for a 15- or 16-week ban as a “smart play” or “reasonable” are clearly only interested in the campaign rhetoric; they have no problem with the policy, which they perceive as a stepping stone to a more comprehensive prohibition.
“We take the long view on these things,” stated Penny Nance, president of the anti-abortion group Concerned Women for America. “The truth is, I still have a ways to go before I can persuade people that it’s a baby at six weeks; I have to win them over at sixteen weeks.”
Given their success in overturning Roe v. Wade after decades of eroding its protections, many on the right, including those who aim to someday outlaw abortion altogether, say that the gradual approach is still the way to go. Some people also think that any federal restrictions on abortion are preferable to the current situation, even though they would greatly limit the procedure in blue states like California, which have become safe havens for abortion access.
“There are segments of the movement that hold the firm belief that the 15-week approach is flawed because they anticipate that once we secure federal limits of 15 weeks, that will be the upper limit,” stated Bob Heckman, a Republican strategist who works with anti-abortion organisations. “I identify with the group that says, ‘Our goal is to protect all unborn children, but we also want to rescue as many as we can during the process.'”
