Super Tuesday saw the president and past president sweep the Republican and Democratic primaries, effectively setting up a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Due to their respective shortcomings, widespread unpopularity, and entrenched stereotypes, the next election is shaping up to be a collision of ideologies, with Republicans seeking to portray Biden as frail and elderly and Democrats threatening the very survival of democracy itself if Trump is reelected.
Are there any other options?
Independent or third-party candidates, who have little chance of winning such a closely contested election, could play a significant role in determining the outcome if 2024 follows the same pattern as 2020 or 2016, where the winner of the Republican or Democratic primary narrowly edges out the loser in a few crucial states.
Unaffiliated parties. All 50 states have had the Libertarian Party on their ballots for the most recent election. In most states, you can find the Green Party on the ballot. Although those parties have never attracted huge fan bases, the tens of thousands of votes they manage to garner in crucial states each year during tight elections causes a great deal of conjecture.
Some have speculated that Trump was elected in 2016 because the Green Party, headed by Jill Stein, and the Libertarian Party, headed by former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, were more formidable than Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Ralph Nader, a Green Party candidate in Florida in 2000, was the target of such criticism.
However, the majority of analyses find that it is unrealistic to expect third-party voters to automatically choose a candidate from the major party in the absence of a third-party option. At their May convention, the Libertarian Party will choose a candidate. In July, the Green Party will choose its nominee.
Candidates running on their own. Unlike in 2020, when Kanye West was a presidential candidate, a new kind of wild card is present this year. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an independent candidate for president in November who has the backing of wealthy backers, a well-known name, and political experience. A new political party, Justice for All, was created by professor and social justice activist Cornel West, who is also running as an independent.
Avoid Labels. Feeling left out by the two main parties, a moderate organisation called No Labels sought to get an unidentified “unity” candidate on the ballot. So far, no such contender has surfaced. This week, members of No Labels will decide whether to run for office.
The organisation has lately hinted that it may seek out a Republican for president and a Democratic nominee for vice president if it were to field a ticket. Notable moderates, such as West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, have declared their intention not to run.
When asked about potential candidates for No Labels, chief strategist Ryan Clancy did not mention any names during an interview with AWN’s Abby Phillip on Wednesday. The members of the gang, whose identities are not known to the public, will be determining their next move, he said.
News about whether or not we will move forward will be shared with you on Friday. “And then, if we are moving forward, you will hear about the process of choosing that ticket in the coming weeks,” Clancy announced.
On what ballot locations will you find Kennedy and West?
Obtaining a spot on the ballot is a significant challenge for independent candidates.
The bizarre 2020 campaign of Kanye West garnered only around 70,000 votes in eighteen states; just ask him. A disturbing turn of events occurred when individuals associated with the Trump campaign assisted West in getting on the ballot in the pivotal state of Wisconsin, evidently with the intention of diverting votes from Biden.
Here is where Kennedy’s campaign, backed by a well-funded super PAC, stands in terms of collecting signatures to be included on ballots:
In the swing states of Nevada and New Hampshire, Kennedy’s campaign asserts that they have collected sufficient signatures. And let’s not forget the azure Big Island.
He is supposedly qualified to run for office in Arizona and Georgia, two crucial states, according to the super PAC that backs him.
Already in the Republican state of Utah, he is on the ballot.
So far, three states—South Carolina, Oregon, and Alaska—have included Cornel West’s candidature on their ballots.
What are the poll results for Kennedy and West?
Complex and ever-changing.
In a head-to-head battle, Trump earned 51% of the vote compared to Biden’s 49%, according to a poll conducted in February by Marquette University.
Things transformed after Kennedy, West, and Stein (Green Party) were included in the question. With 42%, Trump maintained his lead, followed by Biden with 39%, Kennedy with 15%, West with 3%, and Stein with 2%.
Republicans were more likely to back Kennedy in that survey, whilst Democrats were more likely to back West and Stein. When considering only independents, Trump maintained a larger percentage than Biden.
When I questioned Ariel Edwards-Levy, polling editor for AWN, about how to interpret these surveys, she said that surveys that specifically mention third-party candidates by name often exaggerate their popularity. Kennedy may be reaping the benefits of a mix of discontent with Biden and Trump, as well as the importance of his name recognition—which doesn’t often mean long-term support for his candidacy—which makes it seem especially plausible.
In the run-up to election day, support typically dwindles for buzzy independent candidates. Consider the most recent successful third-party or independent candidate, Ross Perot, who failed to win any states or electoral votes and did not even crack 20% in the national popular vote. Bill Clinton, a Democrat who received 43% of the popular vote in 1992 but yet managed to win the presidency, may have had his support.
Who is more threatened by non-partisan candidates?
Political Democrats. From the beginning, they have been strongly against the No Labels campaign, claiming that it would garner Biden’s support.
They have also voiced their displeasure with the way Kennedy’s campaign and the super PAC that backs him have been working together to collect signatures.
View Eva McKend’s report following Kennedy’s event with Black voters in New York to understand why Kennedy’s candidature is worrisome to Democrats.
Additionally, Kennedy has considered running as a Libertarian. He addressed the California state party convention, for example. However, Kennedy’s history as an environmental activist and his continued remarkably liberal views on several important topics make him an unexpected candidate to join the Libertarian Party.
Liberals are as fuzzy as wet cats. Last week, Matt Welch, editor at large of the libertarian magazine Reason, spoke with AWN’s Michael Smerconish about how tough it is to herd these people and how they dislike being persuaded by wealthy, famous outsiders that they should vote for their candidates.
But according to Welch’s prediction, Kennedy has amassed enough money to pay for the lawyers and signature gatherers he needs to run for president as an independent in every state and DC.
Jake Tapper’s account of his conversations with John F. Kennedy over the latter’s vaccine claims is a must-read. Alternately, you can view the candidate’s exchange with Kasie Hunt of AWN, in which Hunt uses the tape to remind him of his statement that no vaccine is safe.
Also, Kennedy’s detractors, especially those on the left of the political spectrum, will likely invest resources into reviving his conspiracy theories about vaccinations and other issues.
