The United States’ Middle East policy is no longer seen as a means to prevent a regional war escalating out of the Israel-Gaza conflict. All hope was lost weeks ago.
As President Joe Biden considers reprisal for the three American casualties in an attack in Jordan on Sunday by what are believed to be Iranian proxy forces, the most pressing need at hand is to keep that regional war from spiralling out of control.
On Tuesday, the president informed reporters that he had decided on a response to the incident. He additionally cautioned that Tehran was held accountable “in the sense that they’re supplying the weapons to the people who did it.” “I don’t think we need a wider war in the Middle East,” he added, underlining the difficulty of finding a balance between punishing the culprits, reducing their capabilities, and restoring deterrence. That is not the kind of thing I am seeking.
The fact that the US is already involved in a war in the broader Middle East is, however, beyond dispute. This is happening less than three years after Biden formally ordered the end of the US-led two-decade combat campaign in Iraq, which drained the country and created profound political pain.
The efforts of the Biden administration to avoid a worsening of the situation are obviously failing. Sunday’s drone operation was unaffected by US bombings against Iranian-backed militias across the region, which came after over 160 attacks on US military installations. U.S. airstrikes on missile launch facilities and infrastructure in Yemen have not halted drone and missile attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea.
Thus, Biden has found himself in the unfortunate position that presidents frequently encounter when faced with a lack of good options and the risk of making matters worse while trying to halt a worsening catastrophe.
The devastating potential of the war is highlighted by the extensive list of violent incidents that have broken out outside of Gaza, where tens of thousands of Palestinians have been slain following 1,200 Israelis’ deaths in terror strikes carried out by Hamas on October 7.
A low-level war against Israel has been waged by the pro-Iranian militia based in Lebanon, Hezbollah. According to its report, thirteen strikes targeting locations in northern Israel were carried out on Monday alone. That night, the IDF claimed credit for attacks against Hezbollah locations in Lebanon.
The Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have been going on for two months, and they have caused worldwide supply chain disruptions, increased the cost of cargo trading, and put the world economy at risk. The United States is spearheading an international alliance to safeguard commerce.
— This month, the United States and Britain conducted airstrikes against Houthi strongholds in Yemen, and Washington has conducted many follow-ups. However, the plan has failed to halt attacks by the Houthis, as even Biden has acknowledged.
The United States also attacked locations in Syria that were associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an Iranian military force.
There has been a dramatic deterioration in relations between the Baghdad government and US forces fighting terrorism in Iraq as a result of attacks carried out by the Biden administration on groups sponsored by Iran.
— A senior Hamas leader in Beirut was murdered in a drone strike, according to US sources, expanding Israel’s conflict. This has added gasoline to the fire in Lebanon, a nation devastated by economic, political, and security difficulties.
An strike in Damascus, Syria, killed several Revolutionary Guard officers, and Iran has blamed Israel for the attack.
Despite the gravity of the situation, the military actions are still being carried out in a controlled manner and have not yet gained destructive momentum, which is the only positive aspect. Not everything that may go wrong has. For instance, Hezbollah has not launched a huge missile barrage against Israeli cities. This organisation can inflict more damage to Israel than Hamas.
It is terrible that three Americans lost their lives in an attack over the weekend; however, there has not been a major assault on US interests that could escalate the conflict on several fronts, such as the destruction of a US naval ship or the deaths of a large number of American servicemen. The gradual intensification of tensions has given the impression in Washington that both Iran and its archenemy, the United States, are keen to avoid a catastrophic regional war.
It is not guaranteed that the dispute will continue in the same manner, even if its development has been gradual rather than abrupt.
Antony Blinken, secretary of state, made the following statement on Monday: “It’s very important to note that this is an incredibly volatile time in the Middle East.” He went on to say, “I would argue that we have not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we’re facing now across the region since at least 1973, and arguably even before that.”
No one is more pessimistic than Aaron David Miller, who worked as a peace negotiator in the Middle East for two presidents. I anticipate it’s going to become worse before it gets worse, he told AWN’s Jim Acosta on Sunday.
Impossible decisions made by Biden
On Monday, during a national security briefing, Biden posted a photo of himself in the Situation Room to social media as the nation grieved the loss of Sgt. William Rivers, 46, Specialist Kennedy Sanders, 24, and Specialist Breonna Moffett, 23.
Outside of the Oval Office, he has plenty of advisors. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and other conservative Republicans are pressing him to launch an attack on Iran from within Iran. According to Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, he need to go after the IRGC chiefs. Even as he accuses Biden of plunging the United States into yet another Middle Eastern quagmire, Biden’s probable opponent in the 2024 race, Donald Trump, is criticising him for being weak. When he expressed that concern, the former president was not dissimilar from other progressives. On the other hand, those on the left are disappointed that Biden has not called for an end to the fighting in Gaza.
On Monday’s “The Lead” on AWN, top Democrat on the House Select Committee on Intelligence Jim Himes stated that Iran knew there was a chance of casualties whenever its proxies assaulted US outposts. “Many of us have pondered the aftermath of fatalities, and now we find ourselves in that realm,” the senator from Connecticut stated. “Sending a very strong signal without dramatically increasing the odds that we get into a shooting war with Iran” is the goal of the response, which should be carefully handled.
Speculation over the alternatives has been prevalent among politicians, academics, and commentators over the past 24 hours. A common theme has been the necessity for the US to convey a strong message while yet avoiding escalating the war. However, what we have learned over the past several months—and from the disastrous past 20 years of US strategy in the Middle East—is that in that dangerous region, assumptions and formulations that make sense in Washington rarely play out as expected.
This highlights the gravity of Biden’s predicament. How can he precisely strike a balance between calamitous escalation and effective deterrence? Will US forces be even more vulnerable as a result of his reprisals? Alternatively, will Iran choose to disregard their concerns? Before taking military action, presidents must think about the aftermath, including the enemy’s reaction both now and in the months to come, and how the United States would respond to it.
On Monday, US officials spoke with Oren Liebermann, Natasha Bertrand, and Katie Bo Lillis of AWN. They said that the US would respond more than in the past when it attacked Iranian interests in Iraq and Syria, but that it’s doubtful that the US will strike within Iran. The US response, according to Blinken’s Monday prediction, will be “multileveled, come in stages and be sustained over time.”
A glimmer of hope emerged on Monday with reports that Hamas had been offered a wide framework for the release of hostages and a possible end to the fighting in Gaza. These resulted from a combination of American and Israeli suggestions with those of Hamas, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel. It has the potential to bring about a six-week truce, the liberation of civilian hostages in Gaza, and the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons. One official told AWN’s Alex Marquardt, “I sense optimism,” despite some doubts from Israel and harsh facts still pending.
The pressure is on for Biden to keep calm as he considers his military choices at this crucial diplomatic juncture.