The survival of the NATO alliance is on the line as Vice President Joe Biden leaves on a weeklong trip to Europe on Sunday.
Biden stops in London before heading to Vilnius, Lithuania for the NATO Summit and Helsinki, Finland for discussions with Nordic leaders. The ongoing Russian war in Ukraine and the attempted Russian coup attempt last month provide the context, as they represent the greatest threat to global security for the alliance in recent memory.
Vilnius lies on NATO’s eastern edge, about 20 miles from the Belarusian border, and Biden will play a pivotal role in a variety of crucial topics that will be discussed there. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the alliance’s exceptional level of unity and credibility will be put to the test at the summit.
There will be concerns about how Ukraine can join NATO, and there may be disagreements over Sweden’s application to join. A month into Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the next steps for the war, worries about a potential endgame, and what long-term security support the leaders can offer to Ukraine are all issues that need to be resolved.
Attacks on NATO territory
Since Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny exposed cracks in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military leadership and posed a potentially existential threat to his regime, Ukraine’s path to NATO membership has taken on greater urgency and is likely to be one of the biggest flash points for the group as the war drags on.
Ukraine’s membership ambitions were first accepted at a NATO meeting in Bucharest, Romania in 2008, but there has been very little progress since then, and the timescale for membership is still unclear. Although the United States has stated that Ukraine will not be joining NATO as a member as a result of this conference, the Vilnius summit provides a crucial opportunity to take concrete actions towards that aim in a significant show of unity.
Ukraine and several of its NATO partners are asking for a more defined path to membership in the alliance to be laid out in a statement at Vilnius. And that, in my opinion, must occur if the alliance is to be taken seriously. Chris Skaluba, director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Centre for Strategy and Security, said, “Given the stakes of the war,… given what the Ukrainians have endured, I worry about the alliance’s credibility if we walk out of Vilnius without a firmer sense of what it will take to get Ukraine into the alliance.”
However, Biden will play a critical role in determining whether or not concrete, quantifiable criteria or timetables are provided to Ukraine in exchange for NATO membership at this summit.
The current stance of the alliance has Biden’s and his administration’s continued support. Tensions inside the alliance built up in the days running up to the sunnit as Eastern European NATO nations bordering Ukraine and Russia pushed harder for a promise to extend membership to Ukraine, including offering a more clear schedule. The heads of 22 countries’ Foreign Affairs Committees, including US House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Rep. Michael McCaul, wrote a letter in early June asking for a clearer route to be spelled out during the summit.
According to national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s remarks to the press, Vilnius “will be an important moment on that pathway towards membership,” allowing members “to discuss the reforms that are still necessary for Ukraine to come up to NATO standards.”
In an exclusive interview with AWN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that an invitation to NATO would be a major boost in morale for Ukrainian troops.
According to an interview Zelensky gave to AWN earlier this month, the significance of “this signal” hinges on Biden’s choice.
Urgent talks have been held in advance of the summit to try to bridge the gap, and their outcome may influence whether or not Zelensky shows up.
According to an interview Zelensky gave to the Wall Street Journal in June, “if we are not acknowledged and given a signal in Vilnius, I believe there is no point for Ukraine to be at this summit.”
The Admission of Sweden
As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan continues to stall Sweden’s bid to join the alliance, observers will also be paying close attention to how the leaders deal with him. In May 2022, prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden formally applied to become members of the security alliance; Finland was accepted this April. The alliance may suffer a severe setback and humiliation as a result of Turkey’s continued opposition to Sweden’s efforts.
At a press conference Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Sweden’s membership in the alliance is “within reach.” Stoltenberg was speaking after he met with top officials from Turkey, Sweden, and Finland. In a statement, Stoltenberg said he would meet with the leaders of Turkey and Sweden on Monday in Vilnius, and that he was hopeful a “positive decision” would result from the discussion.
On Wednesday, Biden welcomed Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to the White House in a gesture of support from the United States.
The basic line is that Sweden will strengthen our alliance since its values align with those of the rest of NATO. Biden addressed Kristersson in the Oval Office, “And I’m really looking – anxiously looking forward for your membership.”
The Swedish government is taking the lead in the negotiations, but the other countries involved will be turning to Vice President Biden to see what the United States can provide Turkey to smooth things over. The Turkish government is lobbying the US Congress for permission to buy F-16 fighter jets built in the USA. U.S. officials are hesitant to publicly link the Sweden issue with F-16s, but they say a deal has been made behind the scenes.
It is unlikely that the issue of Sweden’s membership will be settled at the summit, as formal approval requires a parliamentary procedure. However, leaders will be watching Erdoan for any sign that he is willing to lift the hold and remove any doubts about the alliance’s solidarity.
“If the alliance can’t get Sweden across the goal line here, it’s a failure,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Programme and Stuart Centre at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
Bergmann continued, “I think it really will lead to a confrontation with Turkey over whether Turkey, in fact, belongs in the alliance” if Sweden does not join by the Vilnius summit.
Help for Ukraine
A significant indication to Russia of NATO’s long-term support for Ukraine is whether or not the alliance can deliver any extra long-term security assistance to Ukraine, such as the prospect of new F-16 fighter jets and other long-term investments.
Major progress was made in May when Vice President Biden assured G7 leaders that the United States will back a cooperative effort with allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation aircraft, including F-16s.
Bergmann has indicated that “right now, Ukraine is being supported in a very short-term way,” with the help being “appropriated” and “gotten out the door” as quickly as possible to fulfil Ukraine’s defence needs for the present counter attack.
On the other hand, he noted the importance of a long-term financial commitment here, saying, “It’s critically important to make a long-term financial commitment here to really send a message to the Russians that they are not going to win a long war and that our commitment to Ukraine will last,” especially in light of the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election in 2024.
After a communiqué issued at the conclusion of the summit in Madrid last year criticised the harms created by China’s “non-transparent market distorting industrial practises,” the Indo-Pacific will be a central topic of discussion among the leaders.
As Sullivan puts it, Biden will give a “significant address” in Vilnius “about his vision of a strong, confident America flanked by strong, confident allies and partners, taking on the significant challenges of our time, from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine to the climate crisis.”
Calling London
Biden will go to the United Kingdom before the Vilnius summit begins, where he will have his first face-to-face meeting with King Charles III since his coronation. President Biden did not make the trip to London for the coronation, as is customary, but First Lady Dr. Jill Biden and granddaughter Finnegan Biden were there.
During his visit to Windsor Castle, Biden has stated his want to talk about environmental issues. The monarch’s response to the pressure to take a political stance on an issue he cares deeply about will be widely observed.
Sullivan stated that Biden and the monarch will “engage with a forum that will focus on mobilising climate finance, especially bringing private finance off the sidelines for clean energy deployment and adaptation in developing countries.”
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who the president hosted at the White House last month and with whom he has conferred extensively on Ukraine and other foreign policy topics, will also be attending the meeting.
An Assembly of the North
Following the Vilnius meeting, Vice President Biden will go to Helsinki, Finland for the third Nordic summit and the first of the Biden administration, where he will meet with the leaders of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, and Denmark.
Since Sweden’s NATO membership is still up in the air, the mood of this meeting may depend heavily on how much ground is covered in Vilnius.
A Nordic official told AWN that security cooperation in the Arctic, where both China and Russia have a presence, is another fertile area for dialogue. Technologies like 5G and AI, in which they can work together, are also anticipated to be discussed. In addition, climate action and renewable energy will be focal points of the Helsinki visit.
