The Biden administration is experiencing strategic and political difficulties due to the war, and a 48-hour extension to the Israel-Hamas truce will not alleviate these issues.
The situation is still fragile and a return to conflict seems certain, despite the fact that the release of Palestinian detainees, the two more days of hostage releases, and the humanitarian aid streaming into Gaza legitimise an intense diplomatic effort in which the US is directly engaged.
“Where are the Americans?” is the White House’s top priority. To the great regret of US officials, only the orphaned 4-year-old American-Israeli child Abigail Edan emerged from Gaza during the initial four-day truce, despite anticipation that at least three US citizens would be released.
While Israel is indicating it is willing to consider an additional extension, it is also sending a strong message that it will resume its offensive against Hamas with more vigour than before the truce. Similar to the bombing of civilian neighbourhoods and sieges of Gaza hospitals earlier in the war, it could lead to more civilian casualties. Therefore, any domestic political respite that Biden experiences during the hiatus, given the severe internal strife within his Democratic Party in the run-up to the 2020 election, will most certainly not endure long once the airstrikes resume.
— More and more signs are emerging that Biden is encountering even more resistance on Capitol Hill on his demand for over $14 billion in aid for Israel. Controversies surrounding a broader aid package for Ukraine and US southern border security have ensnared the package, highlighting how Washington’s ability to exert its influence abroad is being severely limited by ungovernable home politics. An individual acquainted with the matter revealed that on Monday evening, Israeli defence officials met with a small group of Senate Democrats to discuss the Israel-Hamas conflict. A number of Democrats, alarmed by Israel’s onslaught in Gaza, took advantage of the opportunity to ask concerns regarding the war in the unclassified meeting. It is expected that Democrats will tackle the contentious issue of putting limits on aid to Israel during Tuesday’s lunch.
— There is still concern about a regional escalation, despite the fact that the administration’s harsh warnings to its enemies have helped keep the dispute contained thus far. On Sunday, US officials announced that a US vessel in the Gulf of Aden had been targeted by two ballistic missiles fired from Yemen, which is controlled by the Houthi rebels. This incident further highlighted the threats faced by US servicemen.
Americans who went missing
On Monday, the last day of the original truce deal, US officials closely monitored Hamas’ release of 11 hostages. The release of the two American women kidnapped on October 7 by Hamas terrorists had been their greatest wish. However, they remained hidden, leading authorities to believe that they would be released as part of Hamas’s extended prisoner exchange programme in the coming days.
The process by which these lists are compiled remains a mystery, according to John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, who spoke with AWN’s Wolf Blitzer on Monday. We are crossing our fingers that some Americans will show up in the following two days and a couple of installments.
Yehuda Beinin expressed his family’s continued concern for his daughter Liat Beinin, 49, and her husband Aviv Atzili, who is also thought to be a prisoner. Liat is one of two American women with dual Israeli citizenship. “We must maintain optimism,” he told Erin Burnett of AWN.
The government is confronted with serious challenges, one of which is the lack of certainty regarding the number of Americans held in Gaza and the survival status of all those whom Washington believes to be captives. During a White House briefing, Kirby informed reporters that the figure is likely lower than 10, falling somewhere around eight or nine. “However, we may not possess absolute certainty regarding each and every one of them.”
A diplomatic source has also said that other Palestinian militant factions, notably Islamic Jihad, are suspected to be holding 40 captives, rather than Hamas; however, it is unknown whether any of these hostages are American citizens.
While the United States had hoped that two American women would be released as part of Hamas’ release of fifty captives during the four-day truce, a senior administration official stated Monday that the White House does not believe “so far” that Hamas intentionally withheld their release.
Expectations for the impending release of young male hostages are low, according to analysts, because Hamas commanders will consider them as a more valuable human currency when they try to raise the price for hostage releases. So far, captives have mostly been women and children. Right now, for every one hostage from the October 7 attacks, Israel has released three Palestinians from prison. Additionally, Israel has not freed any men who are 18 years old or older. Concerns regarding the long-term safety of all the male captives have been heightened by the prospect of hostilities breaking out again unless the truces are endlessly prolonged. Pupils of the Israeli military are experiencing heightened anxiety.
Hamas attacked the Nova Music event, wounding Rachel Goldberg’s 23-year-son Hersh and kidnapping him. On Monday, she informed Jake Tapper of AWN that none of the freed captives had any information regarding his location or health. “Our concerns are immense. Our time is of the essence, time is of the essence,” Goldberg remarked. We are concerned, as any parent would be, about this severely injured American civilian youth.
The possibility for additional leverage from holding onto US hostages is something that security analysts believe Hamas is likely to be aware of. This includes the chance that they may cause the United States to increase its pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prolong the truce that has allowed Hamas forces to recover from Israel’s continuous attacks and prepare for what is likely to be a restarted operation.
House and Senate members will be back in session this week after Thanksgiving break, which means Biden will face more pressure at home to release the American hostages in Gaza, particularly from Republicans who are eager to show him as weak. According to Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, “Apparently, Hamas is so contemptuous of President Biden and American power that they feel the imperative to release Filipinos and Thai hostages before they release American hostages,” as he said on Sunday on Fox.
When hostilities break out once more
Palestinians have been blessed with humanitarian relief thanks to the release of hostages and the supplies of aid into Gaza that were promised in the original accord, but nobody thinks the peace will last. Increased efforts to prolong the pause are being made by the US. On Monday, it was reported that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would be returning to the region this week for a journey that will bring him to Dubai, the West Bank, and Israel.
There will probably be a lot of civilian deaths and an international outrage against Israel if the war starts up again because Israeli operations would likely target regions like the highly populated southern Hamas strongholds and the crowded refugee camps. Already, Biden has felt the political fallout of these operations, both from US allies abroad and from important young, progressive, and Muslim American voters at home who he needs to turn out in big numbers next year—and even from his own staff, according to a Washington Post report. As a result, when the war breaks out again, he will probably encounter a political headache of equal or worse severity.
Even among American and foreign politicians and leaders that Biden would often consider political allies, he has been marginalised on this matter. Then the question of whether he would change his mind about urging Netanyahu to implement a permanent ceasefire—a step that would undermine Israel’s efforts to defeat Hamas—will arise.
The potential for things to go worse
Presidents are seldom credited with averting hypothetical catastrophes. After sending strong warnings to long-standing enemies and displaying military might (including sending two groups of aircraft carriers to waters near Israel), the Biden administration can claim a significant victory in preventing the dispute from escalating into a full-scale regional war.
The government must remain vigilant at all times, even though US adversaries such as Iran have not yet entered the battle and an escalation has not occurred.
Officials from the United States reported that two ballistic missiles were fired within 10 nautical miles of the guided-missile destroyer USS Mason in the Gulf of Aden. The warship had rushed to the help of a tanker that had been attacked by what was believed to be Somali pirates. The Houthi rebels, a Shia group that has received support from Iran in the past, hold territories in Yemen from where the missiles were fired. After Hamas’ attack on October 7, the Houthis began attacking US interests in the area and Israel on a regular basis. The USS Mason refrained from trying to intercept the missiles, and the Pentagon has been tight-lipped about whether or not the ship was a direct target.
Former Trump defence secretary Mark Esper cautioned against writing off the event as coincidental. When asked about the attacks carried out by Iranian proxies in Iraq, Syria, and other locations, Esper told AWN that the administration’s response was inadequate.
I know they are worried; they’re afraid things will get worse if they intervene too soon, he continued. The polar opposite is true of my argument. There will be more assaults if they do nothing, and the situation will only get worse when Americans lose their lives.
