President Joe Biden’s political status has gained considerably in recent years as a result of his predecessor Donald Trump’s refusal to relinquish the spotlight. It’s one of the reasons why, despite the president’s poor support rating, Biden’s Democratic Party had one of the finest midterm elections for a party in possession of the White House last November.
However, in the first month of 2023, Biden has found himself in the spotlight when confidential documents were discovered at his Wilmington, Delaware, home and a Washington, DC, office he used after leaving office as vice president.
His political standing has taken a minor but notable damage in polls since then, while Trump appears to have slowed what had been a downward fall in Republican primary surveys following the GOP’s historically bad showing in the midterms.
One remarkable aspect of Biden’s presidency has been how Americans continue to be captivated by Trump, even though he is no longer president. I’ve long pointed out that more people Google Trump than Biden. However, this has not been the case in the second half of January.
Approximately 60% of those who searched for Biden or Trump in the last two weeks searched for Biden. This is Biden’s greatest percentage when contrasted to Trump since the late summer and fall of 2021. Searches for Biden surged in early September 2021, just after the United States withdrew its final soldiers from Afghanistan.
That time stamp is also significant because it coincided with a decline in Biden’s support rating, which he has yet to recover from. Since then, Biden’s popularity rating has behind his disapproval rating in an average of polls.
A number of polls appeared to show a decline in Biden’s approval rating last week, after more people searched for his name on Google. In the Marquette University Law School poll, registered voters dropped from 47% to 44%. According to the AWN/SSRS poll, his approval rating among registered voters is 46%, down from 48% in December.
Neither of these are significant drops, and both are within the margins of error of the polls. However, when taken collectively and in the context of the average of surveys, they are significant – Biden’s average approval rating is down approximately 2.5 points from two weeks ago (when he was at his highest level since 2021).
We don’t know if Biden’s approval rating is dropping as a result of the discovery of classified materials and the appointment of a special counsel to probe the problem. Gas costs have also been rising, which has been a source of contention for Biden during his presidency.
Nonetheless, there’s no doubt that the confidential documents scandal hasn’t helped Biden. Most Americans believe he did something improper in his handling of classified information.
Trump is taking a back seat.
As the attention has shifted to Biden, Trump appears to be taking a step back. Despite announcing his third quest for the Republican presidential nomination late last year, Trump finally began campaigning this weekend, with stops in New Hampshire and South Carolina on Saturday.
The number of individuals searching for Trump on Google demonstrates his inactivity. This month, fewer individuals have looked him up than in any other month since he began vying for the Republican presidential nomination in 2015.
This does not appear to have harmed Trump’s bid for the presidency in 2024. It has, if anything, aided. Trump’s national polling numbers had plummeted in November following a midterm election that was historically negative for Republicans (the opposition party). Of course, Trump had become the target of Democrats’ assaults.
In tangible terms, Trump’s national polling lead against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical Republican primary was reduced to the low double digits nearly overnight.
However, Trump’s fortunes have recently stabilised. When other candidates are considered, he still leads DeSantis by double digits in national polling. The betting markets, which showed DeSantis with a big lead in December, now show Trump tied with the Florida governor.
The concern is what happens when Trump returns to the spotlight, as he did this weekend. Will it remind Republican voters of the qualities they admire about him? Will it, on the other hand, remind them of what they dislike about Trump?
If the latter is the case, don’t be surprised if the candidate who profits the most is not a fellow Republican.
Rather, it may be the man who followed Trump in the White House and has received a lot of negative news in recent weeks.
