A recent survey conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies reports that while Rep. Adam Schiff maintains a slim lead in the California race for the United States Senate, the contest for the second position is extremely close.
At 21%, Schiff has the support of the field’s most probable voters. Second, at 17%, is Democratic Representative Kate Porter. Third, at 13%, is Republican and ex-Dodger Steve Garvey. Their race for second place is very close, considering the margin of error.
The poll shows that Democratic Representative Barbara Lee is trailing her main opponents with only 9% of probable voters backing her. However, last month, a survey conducted by AWN|Morning Consult revealed that Lee was also tied for second place.
The candidates who make it to the general election in November will be decided in the top-two primary on March 5. The IGS survey shows that the race is still wide open as campaigns get ready to send out ballots to voters in early February.
This week, the campaign’s initial television commercials were released by Porter and Schiff, both of whom are from the greater Los Angeles region. Both have spent close to $1 million aiming their messages towards Democratic voters in the San Francisco-San Jose-Oakland media region, with a particular focus on women. Lee, who was born and raised in Oakland, lacks the financial means to compete in the radio industry.
An expensive intraparty conflict or an uneven Democrat vs. GOP contest in deep-blue California could ensue depending on whether two Democrats progress or Garvey secures a second-place finish.
Between January 4th and the 8th, 4,470 English and Spanish-speaking likely voters were surveyed by the IGS poll. It is believed to have a margin of error of 2%.