Republicans were again shown by the anti-abortion “March for Life” that they needed the anti-abortion movement’s backing to win the White House.
Following the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse the Roe v. Wade ruling last year, which removed a constitutional right to an abortion, marchers will assemble in Washington on Friday with their decades-long aim accomplished.
As a result, the march this year will be a moment for celebration as well as discussion on the direction the movement should take moving forward, with some activists hoping to limit the practise globally. But such a refocused objective has significant dangers. After all, Democrats only recently used their own power to oppose the right-wing Supreme Court majority in the midterm elections, which helped prevent a large Republican midterm election wave.
The March for Life also takes place at a historically significant time because of Donald Trump’s extraordinary attack on evangelical leaders who he perceives as being too disloyal. As AWN’s Gabby Orr, Kristen Holmes, and Kaitlan Collins reported this week, Trump is the president who did more than any other to overturn Roe after striking a deal with social conservative voters that helped him win the 2016 GOP nomination.
“Donald Trump has always done more for the right to life. In a Monday interview with Real America’s Voice, Trump stated, “I put three Supreme Court justices, who all voted, and they got something that they’ve been battling for 64 years, for many, many years. I overturned federal abortion rights.
According to Trump, conservative writer David Brody, “there’s huge disloyalty in the realm of politics and that’s an indication of disloyalty.”
The remark offered a glimpse into Trump’s psychological makeup, exposing both his transactional grasp of politics and his highly developed sense of the allegiance he perceives to be due to him.
Trump tends to complaints and political anxieties
The former president is especially upset that several evangelical leaders who are still significant players in the conservative movement did not instantly support his 2024 White House bid. Trump’s third bid for the White House has so far lacked considerable momentum.
Trump, however, has recently begun to express doubts about whether his generationally conservative Supreme Court majority and the resulting overturning of Roe, which he claims to be his greatest domestic achievement, may really work against his bid for reelection in 2025. He said earlier this month on his Truth Social platform that many Republicans had handled the “abortion problem” poorly, particularly those who insisted on making no exceptions for cases of rape, incest, or life of the mother, which he claimed “lost big numbers of voters.”
Exit surveys from the midterm elections in November, which indicated that more than a quarter of voters listed abortion as a top priority, support the former president’s statements. Around 7 in 10 of those voters supported a Democratic House candidate, and about 61% of those people expressed dissatisfaction with the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v. Wade.
Trump seemed to be trying to shift responsibility for the Republicans’ inability to retake the Senate and their smaller-than-expected House majority with his Truth Social comments. After the election, Trump came under fire for endorsing far-right, anti-election candidates who frequently failed in crucial swing states.
But it’s noteworthy to watch Trump navigate the shifting politics of abortion and appear to be assessing how it might impact his electoral future. After all, he was once unapologetically pro-choice before his entry into Republican politics forced a change in stance and prompted the agreement with evangelicals, which effectively included a commitment to nominate anti-abortion justices to the Supreme Court in exchange for the votes of social conservatives.
Trump has regularly attended the March for Life demonstration in the past, and in 2020, as he prepared for his reelection campaign, he became the first sitting president to participate in person. “Unborn children have never had a better protector in the White House,” he told the crowd.
As Democrats work to enshrine Roe v. Wade protections into law, there is currently no indication that he will attend Friday’s ceremony, which will take a detour to the US Capitol on its regular path to the Supreme Court.
Has Trump erred strategically?
Trump’s remarks on abortion and his conflict with evangelical leaders raise the question of whether the former president has made a strategic mistake and is hurting his 2024 candidature by focusing on a crucial GOP primary voting bloc at a time when there are mounting doubts about whether he is still the party’s most powerful figure.
According to Ralph Reed, the executive director of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, “getting the evangelical vote is a must for nomination.” Nobody is more aware of that than President Trump, who in 2016 surprised almost everyone by gaining their support.
This issue is particularly pressing in Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucuses in the 2024 primary season (at least for Republicans), which will be the first test of the former President’s influence over conservatives and evangelicals in particular.
Trump just edged out Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in Iowa in 2016, finishing second to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, and the state hasn’t always been a reliable indicator of how the GOP nomination race will turn out.
It will undoubtedly be viewed as a significant signal of Trump’s appeal to the conservative base in 2024, when it will likely take on additional significance. Given that he won the state handily in the general elections of 2016 and 2020, a defeat there would cast a sombre shadow over his future campaigns.
And it’s simple to think of a number of prospective GOP challengers who may be popular in the state if they ran against Trump, such as former vice president Mike Pence, South Dakota governor Kristi Noem, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, or Cruz once more. Republicans’ only stated contender for president in 2024 is Trump.
Given his widespread support within the GOP and the fact that he persisted despite losing his bid for reelection, Trump would find himself in an unusual position in 2024. However, since he is not the incumbent president and appears to be up for reelection, he may be more vulnerable in the early rounds of the election.
Even so, there is still a lot of support for Trump among many conservative base supporters who are thankful for the change he brought about during his time and who admire his approach.
“Many people forgave him for his misstatements and his missteps because they generally liked his ability to fight,” said Timothy Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa and an authority on the state’s politics. “Even though that became a cliché for some people, Trump’s detractors.”
This brings up a Trump point that is frequently overlooked. He provided a political as well as an emotional connection for many of his admirers. As significant as many of his frequently ill-defined individual political ideas were his willingness to voice the opinions of many grassroots conservatives and to criticise organisations they detested, such as the media, Washington insiders, and other elites.
Furthermore, it’s frequently forgotten that evangelical voters in states like Iowa don’t always cast their ballots in unison or in accordance with the advice of their leaders or pastors. If a candidate is regarded to be generally acceptable, they can give tax problems more weight than social issues. Trump may have more freedom than more traditional contenders to deviate from traditional conservative dogma, even on the issue of abortion.
However, if they don’t support him, even a tiny number of disgruntled Iowa voters, as well as more mainstream GOP caucus goers who may be considering other facets of his campaign and those of prospective rivals, might have an impact on Trump’s chances in the state, according to Hagle.
“Will they back Trump because he fights, or because of his economic situation, or because of his stance on the border?” said Hagle. “The abortion stuff might not be as significant to them at this stage, or will they go a different path?”
