A general election that could be decided in six swing states has Donald Trump glued to the notion that he can extend the map. He claims he can win over the blue state because he had a large turnout at his rallies in New Jersey. The idea of winning Virginia has crossed his mind.
For years, Trump has been fixated with dismantling the Democratic Blue Wall, and he has now honed in on the Upper Midwestern state of Minnesota as his target. In 2016, he was the most closely contested Republican candidate in the state since Richard Nixon, coming within two points of Hillary Clinton. “I lose Minnesota,” he declared that year, “I’m never coming back.” However, he did vow to win it in 2020.
He was defeated. However, Trump will return on Friday night as the featured speaker at the Lincoln Reagan Dinner in St. Paul, Minnesota, hosted by the Minnesota GOP. The state, which is heavily Democratic, is once again being touted by him and his associates.
Within the Four Seasons Palm Beach, senior Trump advisors showed slide decks with updated polling data to major contributors earlier this month. The data suggested that Trump may expand his map in Virginia and Minnesota this November.
President Joe Biden and Trump were tied at 40% in Minnesota, but Biden had a 3% lead in Virginia, according to data shown on the screen by pollster Tony Fabrizio, campaign advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, and fellow Trump pollster John McLaughlin. The strategists informed funders that, in the absence of independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump had a five-point lead in Minnesota and Biden a one-point lead in Virginia.
There is skepticism even among Republicans in Minnesota.
A former Minnesota Republican Party deputy chair, Michael Brodkorb, declared, “Minnesota is a blue state.”. “When Republicans are having a good day, it can be slightly purple for the Vikings.”
Neither, however, do they have no prospects. If Trump can repeat his 2016 performance—in which he lost the state by less than 45,000 votes—he might at least give Democrats a scare, as he is currently leading Biden in swing states’ general election polls.
According to former Republican governor Tim Pawlenty, “Minnesota remains an uphill climb for any statewide Republican candidate,” but he did admit that President Trump had a good chance of winning the state. “President Trump’s performance in the suburbs and relative levels of voter turnout will decide the election here,” he continued.
During the 2020 presidential campaign, Trump named Minnesota one of his top priorities. In the final three months of the contest, the campaign made seven trips to the state, with him and then-Vice President Mike Pence making two of those stops. Still, Minnesota was a 7-point defeat for him. Even more dismal has been the outlook for Republicans in that area in the years subsequent. The state legislatures and the governor’s office are now under Democratic control, making it a trifecta state.
Vice President Pence’s statements are filled with falsehoods, according to Democratic Governor Tim Walz, who spoke with AWN. “Listen, this is a hockey state. His defeat in 2016 taught us the meaning of a hat trick. In the year 2020, he lost. Additionally, in 2024, he will come up short. Out here, the Republican Party’s bank account is around $50. Looks like we’re in for a ground game. Being in court all the time and claiming victory in Minnesota doesn’t seem to make it happen, in my opinion.
Despite highlighting Minnesota and Virginia as potentially flippable states, the Trump campaign has remained mum about its plan in these states. Trump is “on offense with a winning message,” according to AWN spokesman Karoline Leavitt, who also added that Biden’s campaign “should be terrified.”
Not only is President Trump winning every traditional battleground state, but even traditionally blue states like Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey are suddenly in the race, thanks to Joe Biden’s weakness and the Democrats’ chaos, according to Leavitt.
Democrats in Minnesota and Virginia are just as unconcerned about Trump as they are in New Jersey, where they are laughing him off. Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minnesota) remarked that Trump is “grasping at straws” when he claims that the state can be won.
“Trump made a similar statement in 2020,” she remarked.
Additionally, Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat running for reelection in Virginia, expressed his belief that Trump “doesn’t see the math working out” in the state, where little over one-third of Republican primary voters favored Haley over him on Super Tuesday.
After all, “but he’s got resources,” Kaine remarked. I need to accept his word for it if he claims he will.
In a deadpan statement, Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia suggested that Trump should back an obscure candidate in the commonwealth state. Nevertheless, he did admit that it’s easier to say when he isn’t facing reelection.
The level of seriousness with which Trump’s campaign will approach Minnesota is uncertain, despite his March interview with KNSI Radio stating that the state is “not, like, in my opinion, that blue” and his Friday presence in the state. Although the Trump campaign had a substantial presence in Minnesota during the previous presidential campaign, experienced Republican strategist Gregg Peppin claims to have not yet seen any signs of a local organization in the state.
In 2020, they invested heavily in the state, and if they continue that trend in 2021, it will be a clear indication that Minnesota is still in the race, according to Peppin. “It seems more rhetorical than strategic to me right now.”
Since 1972, the state has not been won by a Republican running for president. Since Pawlenty’s 2006 victory, no Republican has ran for statewide office in Minnesota. Officials from Joe Biden’s campaign have laughed off the prospect of a Trump victory in Minnesota or Virginia. His pollster concedes that the Trump team still faces challenges in both states, despite their contention as potential battlegrounds.
According to McLaughlin, “we’re still a little behind, or at best even” in those states.
But, he said, “that’s going to put Minnesota and Virginia in play” because to Trump’s encouraging national polling forecast. Other states will also be involved as a result.
It will be up to Trump to win over Republicans in Minnesota and elsewhere.
Even Peppin was certain that Trump might win Minnesota in 2020. However, he expressed that he is not overly optimistic about this election given his disappointing performance in the previous one.
“My recommendation would be to either strengthen their position in a current swing state, such as Wisconsin or Michigan, or to broaden their focus elsewhere,” he stated. “I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but things are looking bleak right now.”
