According to a recent survey conducted by ABC News/Ipsos, a majority of Americans and independents agree that Donald Trump should have been charged with a felony in each of the four indictments against him. According to a recent AP-NORC poll, the vast majority of respondents are adamant that they will not support the former president in the next 2024 election.
Despite this, Trump maintains a huge lead in the polls for the Republican nomination and is just slightly behind President Joe Biden in a hypothetical runoff.
Paragraphs 1 and 2 may appear to be at odds with one another, yet they do not. Trump is unpopular with the general public, but popular with Republicans. Even though the majority of Americans despise both Trump and Biden, general elections are not referendums on a single candidate.
Since the beginning of the year, Trump’s standing within his party has only improved. According to polls from Fox News released this week, his favorability among Republicans has increased by 11 points since December. There isn’t another Republican presidential candidate who polls remotely close to Trump right now.
Indictments and the Republican Party
Trump is likely to skip the first GOP presidential debate next week in Milwaukee, so you’ll need something to sway Republicans away from their favourite candidate if you want to win the primary election.
It’s arguable that four separate indictments may have that effect.
Republican voters’ opinions on the many Trump indictments have been constant, and that’s a problem. Republicans have a uniform view that the ex-president is guilty of everything that has been said against him, from trying to sabotage the 2020 election to mishandling confidential documents. Recent studies conducted by ABC News/Ipsos found that between 14% and 16% of Republicans think Trump should have been charged. Almost nobody does.
The Republican Party says the accusations are entirely partisan. Over eighty percent of Republicans think, according to a recent poll conducted by ABC News/Ipsos and the Associated Press, that the district attorney for Georgia’s Fulton County and the Department of Justice are engaging in partisan politics.
Because of this, Republican supporters of Trump have not only remained loyal, but have increased their commitment. His lead in the polls among primary voters has grown from the single digits to roughly 40 points today over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
The Republican view of the midterms
Even if Republicans adore the former president and think he is getting a harsh deal, they might abandon Trump if they think he can’t win Biden in a general election. A majority of Americans have already said they will not vote for him in November 2024, and he has been indicted four times.
That line of thinking is also failing. The majority of Republicans still believe Trump is more popular than DeSantis.
I’m not even sure they’re wrong. In national polls, Trump and Biden are in a statistical dead heat. While Trump has been ahead of Biden in more surveys this year than throughout the entirety of the 2020 campaign, Fox News and Quinnipiac University both have the race inside the margin of error at the national level.
You may argue that Trump should be favoured over Biden if the election were held today if he achieves a similar level of success in the swing states as he achieved in 2016 and 2020.
In addition, Trump’s national poll numbers against Biden are comparable to those of his Republican competitors. He has, on the whole, been doing slightly better this summer.
The explanation is obvious: Biden’s low approval ratings are bad even for an incumbent. His average disapproval rating is towards the middle of the range seen by sitting presidents at this time in their terms. The average favourable rating for former Vice President Joe Biden is in the upper 30s, making him slightly more popular than Trump.
After all, the AP-NORC poll revealed that, like Trump, a majority of Americans said they wouldn’t vote for Biden in 2024.
Experience of deja vu
Political scientists are used to seeing large numbers of voters who don’t support either major party’s nominee.
Both Trump and Clinton’s unfavourable ratings were much above 50% only seven years ago. The groups of people who despised both candidates were not the same. The majority of voters approved of one of them.
2016 exit surveys showed that 18% of voters were dissatisfied with both major party candidates. On average, there is now a larger segment of the electorate that does not support either Biden or Trump.
A more persuasive argument might be made for Biden in 2024 given his somewhat higher average favourable rating. But in 2016, those calculations fell short. The election was won by Trump because more people who despised both candidates sided with him.
There are likely Republicans who are placing bets based on that math once again. After all, we should not discount Trump’s chances based on history and present polling.