Senate control may be calculated with relative ease. On the Democratic side, it just doesn’t add up.
Although Democrats hold a 51-49 Senate majority, Republicans are projected to gain the state of West Virginia, the seat held by Joe Manchin, who is retiring. Assuming Republicans maintain control of their home states, a Republican sweep of seven red or purple states now held by Democrats in November would guarantee GOP control of the chamber.
Republicans are well-positioned to gain that extra seat, according to a survey released this morning by the New York Times and Siena College: The state of Montana
With a lead of seven percentage points, 52 percent to 44 percent (all statistics rounded), Republican Tim Sheehy is running against longtime Democratic incumbent Jon Tester.
Until Monday, Democrats had a commanding lead in all of the contested Senate contests according to the Times/Siena polls. This included Ohio, a state that Donald J. Trump won by eight points four years ago, but where Sherrod Brown was leading by four points. If Democrats had won Montana, they would have continued that streak and been one step closer to taking over the Senate. They failed to comprehend.
Nonetheless, the outcome in Montana is not unexpected. The majority of the data does not indicate a very tight race, and Mr. Tester has not held the lead in a public survey since mid-August. Even before he started to fall behind in the polls, his route to win seemed tough. Mr. Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020. Even now, Mr. Trump is 17 points ahead of Kamala Harris in the polls.
If Democrats wanted to gain the Senate without Montana, they would have to win over a red state. It certainly won’t be simple, according to the Times/Siena polls. Both Texas and Florida seem like they should be the easiest choices on paper. However, the current polls show that the two sitting Republican senators, Ted Cruz in Texas and Rick Scott in Florida, are well ahead of their opponents.
If these were the ultimate tally, the Democrats’ chances of regaining the Senate would be slim to none. Last but not least, we have the Nebraska contest, where the independent Dan Osborn is challenging the incumbent Republican Deb Fischer in the early polls. Senate control would be up in the air if Mr. Osborn were to win because he has stated that he would not caucus with either party.
In a campaign where an independent candidate is running, any outcome could be unexpected. If Nebraska remains in a tight contest, Democrats have reason to be optimistic (but they must also win all of their favorite races). It should be noted, however, that comparable independent initiatives in 2014 in Kansas and 2022 in Utah were ultimately successful for Republicans. Mr. Osborn was shown to be significantly ahead in Nebraska’s sole Democratic seat in a recent Times/Siena poll conducted two weeks ago; nonetheless, the margin was not large enough to indicate a statewide lead for him.
Montana vs. Texas?
Texas could represent the Democrats’ best (but far from ideal) chance of retaining the Senate, especially if Mr. Tester loses ground in Montana.
Even while a blue Texas may be hard to fathom, the possibility is becoming less remote. Neither Mr. Cruz’s 2018 nor Mr. Trump’s 2020 victories were by more than three points. This year’s presidential contest in Texas would likely be close if Republicans hadn’t made gains among Hispanic voters. Among Hispanic voters, Mr. Cruz actually does worse than Mr. Trump, which is rather interesting.
Given that the state is likely to vote for Mr. Trump in November, Mr. Cruz’s four-point lead over Colin Allred is close to robust. This lead is in line with recent polls. Furthermore, Democrats would lose hundreds of millions of dollars if they made a genuine attempt to challenge the state. Even though Democrats should have pledged that in a state where they had a good chance of winning, Republicans had spent more money than Democrats in Texas.
