It’s no secret that liberals in California’s liberal stronghold are trying to win a Senate seat for themselves.
It’s possible, though, that Republicans will prove to be the most important voting bloc.
Three Democratic representatives have expressed interest in challenging Senator Dianne Feinstein for her seat next year: Barbara Lee, Katie Porter, and Adam Schiff. In the top-two primary system, the Democratic nominee typically goes on to soundly defeat the Republican who comes in second.
However, this time around, things could get strange because Republicans in California are such a distinct minority faction in the blue state, making up only roughly a third of the electorate. Republicans may be able to sway the election if the fight to replace Feinstein becomes a Democrat-on-Democrat contest. Who could benefit is likewise unclear.
The campaign for Porter seems fixated on just one concept. Chris Cadelago, a colleague of mine here at AWN, says this is “a frequent line of questioning” when Porter’s campaign team meets with Democratic activists.
What it would mean for the November general election and the conditions under which it could occur are as follows.
There is a significant caveat to the polling in this race.
The most recent survey from the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley was just released this week, and it suggests that a Republican could make it to the final two in this contest.
Republican Senate candidate Eric Early enjoys the backing of 18% of the electorate. 17 percent for Porter, 14 percent for Schiff, and 9 percent for Lee. If that GOP statistic is accurate, the leading Democrat in California simply needs a plurality of the vote among voters who lean Democratic to win in November.
To paraphrase the pollster, “with three [Democrats], that’s when I think you have a greater possibility that the Republican can emerge as one of the top two finishers,” which happened in this case.
And there is some support for Republican candidate Early. The presidential primary is expected to draw a large crowd given that it is being held on Super Tuesday, 2024, and all eyes are on the Republican primary.
It’s not impossible, though, for two Democrats to win.
This year, a Democratic showdown is possible due to a few things.
The first issue is that Early’s data may be overstated. In the poll, he was the lone Republican contender, but he may have competition. There were ten Republicans running for the Senate seat last year; the runner-up, Mark Meuser, received only 15% of the vote.
Although Porter, Schiff, and Lee are all Democrats in the House of Representatives, recent polling and fundraising statistics suggest that they are currently in a separate tier than Lee. Lee is only at 11% in even her own company’s primary polls. The sole African-American running in this election is significantly less well-funded than both Porter and Schiff. When March came to a close, Lee was trailing both Porter ($9.5 million) and Schiff ($24.7 million) in cash on hand.
Lee’s competitiveness, according to DiCamillo of UC-Berkeley’s polling, is an open question. She has a compelling backstory that deserves widespread attention if she can raise the necessary funds to spread her message. If she continues to fall behind, the leading two Democrats, Porter and Schiff, will have a better chance of winning.
If Feinstein decides to step down or is replaced before her tenure ends, California Governor Gavin Newsom has pledged to select a woman of colour to the position. If he keeps his word and picks Lee to succeed him, it might be a huge lift for her.
It’s possible that Republicans will decide a race between two Democrats.
No Democratic candidate for Feinstein’s seat has a clear strategy for uniting the party’s voters in the state or for appealing to Republicans.
When compared to the other two Democratic candidates, Schiff has the most moderate voting record. On paper, that sounds more appealing to Republican voters, who would be without a candidate in this case. Republicans in the state are likely to avoid Schiff because of his prominent participation in the investigation and impeachment of President Donald Trump.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy specifically removed him from the Intelligence Committee because of his unpopularity among Republicans, and one first-term Republican has even proposed permanently ousting Schiff from the House as a tit-for-tat over the treatment of Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who is facing felony charges.
The Republicans could issue a protest vote at any time. While fighting Feinstein from the left, Los Angeles City Councilman and former state Senate leader Kevin de León won the support of many Republicans in 2018.
Even though Feinstein lost the statewide election by only four points (54-46), she won by significant margins in the overwhelmingly Democratic counties of Los Angeles (58 percent), San Francisco (63 percent), and Marin (65 percent). Vote totals for De León were highest in Trump states.
If Republicans dislike Schiff, it’s unclear if they’d vote for the more liberal Lee or Porter. Many of them might not select a race at all. There were 12.5 million ballots cast in the 2018 gubernatorial election between Democrat Gavin Newsom and Republican Dan Cox. However, while 12.1 million votes were cast for the president, only 11.1 million were cast for the Feinstein-de León contest.
While there are many unknowns surrounding this campaign, one thing seems likely: the Republican candidate will not prevail. In California, Republicans haven’t won a statewide election since 2006, and the last time a Republican presidential candidate got more than 40 percent of the vote was in 2004, when George W. Bush was president.