You’d be forgiven for thinking a Democrat made the recent comment that House Republicans are just the “same stupid clown car with a different driver.” And while I’m sure many Democrats agree, it was Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson who first said that quote that has stuck with me.
The South Dakota lawmaker was referring to the present chaos in the House, which was caused when eight other Republicans voted with Democrats to remove Kevin McCarthy as speaker.
It makes little difference, though, if the Republican majority in the House chooses a new speaker soon or not. What we’re witnessing right now is unprecedented in the contemporary era.
This incident is emblematic of a deeper schism amongst Republicans in the House, one that isn’t only ideological but also concerns the ability of party leaders to reach a settlement that will satisfy everyone.
Much of the recent discourse on the rifts within the House of Representatives has attempted to place them within a right-left ideological framework. The majority of the House is quite conservative, and those who voted against McCarthy tend to be even more conservative than the party as a whole. However, there are many conservative Republicans who didn’t vote McCarthy out of office (such Texas Representative Chip Roy).
There is also a disagreement within the Republican party on whether or not they should seek consensus in order to rule. Will voters support the agreements that House Republican leaders have struck with Democrats to keep the government open?
Some of the questions can be answered by looking at Congressional roll call votes. According to a criteria developed by the academics at Voteview, Florida’s Matt Gaetz is the Republican lawmaker who has been the least sympathetic to party leadership this Congress.
In addition, the gap between the most moderate and least moderate Republicans in the House (the top and bottom fifth percentiles, respectively) is bigger now than at any time in the preceding eighty years. Because the current GOP majority is so slim, these politicians on the fringes of the conference are crucial; as we saw earlier this month, it only takes a handful of members to bring down the speaker.
There wasn’t any magical emergence of representatives like Gaetz. The American people put them there by electing them to Congress.
These include many of the same folks who liked former President Trump’s policies.
The Trump Party
Look at this Thursday’s publication of a question from this week’s AWN/SSRS poll. We posed the question to Republicans in Congress: “Stand firm on beliefs without compromise, even if not much gets done in Washington, or work across the aisle to get things done in Washington, even if it means losing out on some high-priority policies?”
Voters who support Trump in the 2024 GOP primary election expected Republicans in Congress to be unyielding, with 52% saying as much. Only 23% of Republicans who aren’t team Trump support lawmakers who won’t compromise on anything. Seventy-seven percent wanted Republicans in Congress to cooperate with Democrats.
According to the AWN poll, the majority of Republican primary voters are supporting Trump. The fact that Trump isn’t a typical Republican who just goes about things normally is one of his selling points.
It’s hardly shocking that after McCarthy cut a deal with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown, a majority of Trump supporters (56% to be exact) agree that he should be ousted as speaker.
Only 37% of Republicans overall agreed with the decision to remove McCarthy.
It’s worth noting that Republican voters’ attitudes towards compromise in order to avoid a government shutdown haven’t changed much over the past decade. The persons serving in Congress appear to have undergone some sort of transformation.
Apparently, anti-establishment Republicans from a decade ago, like Kentucky’s Thomas Massie, who voted to keep McCarthy as speaker, aren’t anti-establishment enough now.
People like Massie have been demoted to make room for Gaetz and his ilk. This is Trump’s party now, according to at least some Republicans in Congress.
The current size of the Republican majority in the House is also distinct from the tea party era of a decade ago, recalling instead the late 1990s and early 2000s.
NBC polling from about 25 years ago revealed that Republicans were much more willing to compromise than to stand on principle. When given the choice between compromising with Democratic President Bill Clinton or standing firm on their values, 63% of Republicans opted for compromise.
Republicans have won back the House with a razor-thin majority thanks to a party base that is willing to sacrifice a lot for principle. That the current leadership battle within the House GOP reads like something out of an Aaron Sorkin play is hardly shocking.