On Tuesday, Donald Trump will attempt to rally a handful of supporters to the finish line.
In the five states where primaries are being held for president, the former president will easily win, but his authority will be challenged in a few elections farther down the ballot.
Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno is among them. In the last days of the fiercely contested GOP primary, Moreno has been attempting to swiftly erase an Associated Press article concerning an adult website account that he claims was made by an intern in 2008. Or Mike Bost, a five-term incumbent in the House of Representatives, who is using Trump’s backing to ward off a candidate in Southern Illinois who is affiliated with the MAGA party.
A lot will happen in the presidential primaries that will set the stage for Trump vs. Biden in November. Despite the fact that both men have mathematically secured the nominations of their respective parties, the campaigns will be keeping an eye on Tuesday’s results to see how many people still aren’t sold on their party’s nominee and could be inclined to vote for a third party, abstain, or even cross over in November.
Down-ballot, there’s even more to observe: With two securely GOP vacant seats in Ohio and the special election in California to succeed former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Tuesday’s primaries also symbolise the most recent round in the ongoing struggle between establishment Republicans and rebels for control of the House of Representatives. The most visible pro-Israel organisation is trying to influence a Democratic primary in Chicago after failing miserably in a comparable contest in Southern California earlier this month; this is the latest Democratic dispute involving the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Five things to keep an eye on during the primaries on Tuesday:
The Influence of Trump’s Support
The four contests on Tuesday provide distinct challenges to the former president’s grip on the Republican Party, despite his numerous endorsements in Republican primaries.
The nomination to challenge Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in a potentially deciding struggle for control of the Senate is being contested by Moreno in a tight three-way race. Few credible polls have been conducted on the race, but the general consensus is that Moreno and the moderate state senator, Matt Dolan, who is self-funding, are the front-runners, with Secretary of State Frank LaRose in third place.
Just 48 hours following the publication of the AP story, Trump is mobilising his political capital to support Moreno by travelling to Ohio for a weekend rally. Even though Trump had long endorsed Moreno, polls suggested that she still hadn’t secured the nomination, so he allegedly planned the trip a week before the primary.
The likely Republican presidential nominee is not just endorsing a Senate contender, but three House candidates in close contests as well.
Reportedly, House Speaker Mike Johnson and Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the House Republicans’ campaign arm, asked him to support Bost over Darren Bailey, the nominee for governor of Illinois in 2022. Some of Trump’s allies, such as Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), are endorsing Bailey, and the endorsement has put them at odds with Trump. Since Bailey is challenging Bost from the right, the outcome of the election will determine whether the most conservative voters back the less moderate candidate or if they are swayed by Trump’s endorsement.
On Monday, Trump also lent his support at the last minute to a key House Republican primary: the contest in Northwest Ohio between incumbent Republican Mike Turner and vulnerable Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur. The Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, which was linked to Johnson, has benefited state Rep. Derek Merrin, and the former president is endorsing Merrin.
No matter the outcome of Tuesday’s race between Merrin and former state representative Craig Riedel, the Republicans in the House have already averted their worst-case scenario. Trump helped 2022 candidate J.R. Majewski, who lost badly to Kaptur, withdraw from his reelection campaign earlier this month and support Merrin. In a House that is already deeply split, this seat will be crucial.
In the special election to succeed Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker in California, Trump is endorsing state representative Vince Fong. With 42% of the vote, Fong finished first in the regular primary and gets McCarthy’s endorsement as well.
With fewer opponents to choose from, Fong stands a good chance of becoming the special election’s unofficial winner. If he doesn’t, he’ll have to contend with Mike Boudreaux, a fellow Republican, in May—on top of their already-planned November confrontation.
The fight for Sen.
Even though we’re just halfway through March, the Senate map’s biggest unknown will be settled in Tuesday’s primary in Ohio.
Being one of three states that Trump won, Ohio is a crucial contest for Democrats to defend in November. With Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s resignation practically giving the seat in neighbouring West Virginia to the Republicans, the party has little room for mistake.
With just one more seat—whether it’s Brown’s in Ohio or Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s in Montana—or by taking over a number of battleground states, such as an open seat in Michigan or the Nevada seat of Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, or by unseating Democratic Sens. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania or Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Republicans can seize control of the chamber.
It should be noted that Republicans are now enjoying a significant lead. It doesn’t matter if West Virginia is the sole Senate seat that changes hands in November; if Republicans win the presidential campaign, they would still have control of the Senate after Inauguration Day.
Maybe that’s why the Democrats decided to become involved in the contest in the last week before it ended. They seem to think Moreno will be easier to defeat in November, because they are endorsing him.
In any case, Brown faces an uphill battle in a state that Trump carried by 8 percentage points on two occasions.