Abortion was a major rallying point for conservatives for a long time. As a result, many staunchly conservative supporters sided with Donald Trump in the 2016 general election despite his difficulties with the group during the Republican primary.
Since Roe v. Wade was overturned a year ago, however, it’s become quite evident that the tables have turned. Democrats are energised by the debate over abortion, and the issue might swing the 2024 presidential election in any direction.
A proposed constitutional amendment to ensure abortion rights will be on the ballot in Ohio this November, and the state’s voters’ rejection of a ballot measure on Tuesday has drawn a lot of attention. In a state that Trump won twice by 8 points, the “no” side (often interpreted as supporting abortion rights) won by 14 points.
Since the reversal of Roe, three other red states that voted for Trump by even larger margins than Ohio did (Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana) have also voted for the abortion rights side on ballot proposals.
While these findings are certainly noteworthy, it is certainly possible for citizens to vote independently of their views on abortion. Vote-changing potential is not inherent in every subject.
However, abortion does not appear to be one of these problems. Votes are likely influenced by it. View the results of the AWN/SSRS survey from earlier this month. One survey found that 31% of people would only consider supporting a politician if they believed the same way as them on abortion. There were 54% Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, and 37% Republicans or independents who lean Republican.
Similarly, only 34% of voters supported overturning Roe v. Wade, while 65% of those who said they would only vote for a candidate who shared their opinion on abortion were opposed to doing so.
About 46% of those who participated in the survey identified as Republicans or as independents who lean Republican, while 45% identified as Democrats or as independents who lean Democratic.
Check these results against the PRRI poll taken before the 2020 election.
Nearly twice as many Republicans (32%) as Democrats (17%) said they would only support a candidate who shared their stance on abortion. Similarly, 29% of Americans who favoured making abortion illegal would vote only for candidates who shared their position, while just 15% of those who favoured making abortion legal would do the same.
In other words, the abortion issue has shifted from being one that favours Republicans and anti-abortion candidates to favouring Democrats and pro-abortion rights ones.
Results in the Polls
This isn’t only something that shows up in surveys. The election outcomes have reflected this.
For instance, we know that the party in power enjoyed one of its most successful midterm elections ever in 2022. Democrats gained momentum in the Senate and in the homes of governors while suffering minimal losses in the House. Even though President Joe Biden’s support rating was below 50%, this nevertheless took place.
Abortion was undoubtedly a major factor in what is otherwise a highly uncommon outcome. I don’t just say this because the Democrats’ poll numbers went up after Roe v. Wade was overturned. That’s what I’m saying because after the Supreme Court ruling, things started to shift in the election results as well.
Compared to how well Biden had done in 2020, Democrats lagged behind in special elections after Biden became president but before Roe was repealed. Democrats’ average margins in campaigns for the US House of Representatives and state legislatures were 5 points lower than Biden’s.
Since Roe v. Wade was overturned, Democrats have outperformed Biden’s 2020 margins by 6 points. That’s also true for any special elections that take place in 2023 and no other year.
It is unclear how effectively results from special elections may predict the performance of the president. Turnout is typically lower in special elections than in general elections for president.
One thing that is crystal evident is how different this year’s special elections have been compared to next year’s. In those days, Democrats’ performance in special elections was only marginally better than the standard set by Hillary Clinton, their 2016 presidential contender. In special elections leading up to the 2018 midterms, however, they fared much better than their 2016 baseline.
Both special election outcomes, a landslide for the Democrats in 2018 and a tight victory for Biden in 2020, were predicted by the underlying trends.
No one can know for sure what will happen in 2024. The polls for a possible second run between Biden and Trump are still quite close.
But Biden’s support for abortion rights will play a role if he wins a second term.