Is it possible for Americans to enjoy a fair and free election this year? Even if it does, how many people will think the process was fair? Nothing is certain anymore, in no little part because of the disproportionate and divisive role that Donald Trump has maintained in American politics. On the other hand, I am more hopeful now than I was in 2020 regarding the chances of a fairly accurate vote tallying in November, following thirty years of researching and attempting to improve U.S. election legislation.
I foretold a “election meltdown” and a nation unprepared for a slew of problems during the last election, including but not limited to: increased instances of foreign involvement, surges in misinformation, and efforts to undermine the election. Nevertheless, my perspective has changed this time around: Those dangers persist, but we are cognizant of them and more equipped to deal with them.
Worrying that the losers won’t accept the results as legitimate is a more pressing concern. This attitude only became prevalent following the 2020 election, when a violent assault on the Capitol occurred due to Trump’s refusal of a peaceful transition of power. But in 2024, even before the majority of voters have cast their ballots, there is a lot of talk about election denialism. This heightened mistrust has the potential to fuel more unrest and violence while also solidifying the type of damaging election denialism that undermines our democracy in the long run.
The United States has historically had trouble holding legitimate elections, and the situation has only worsened since 2020. The United States of America’s election season is unlike any other advanced democracies in the world. Lawmakers and administrators make changes to voting rules, sometimes for political gain, and then there’s a never-ending cycle of lawsuits over these rules, which can go all the way to the highest levels of the judiciary. Then there’s the fiery rhetoric about voter fraud, vote suppression, and rigged elections, and stories of random election snafus, which are more accurately depicted as examples of incompetence rather than as malicious manipulation. Anxieties, doubts, and uncertainties will persist every four years unless we change the Constitution to grant a meaningful ballot right.
In the United States, these voting pathologies were amplified and intensified by Trump. There were significant obstacles to conducting a fair election without exposing people to sickness because it took place during the COVID-19 epidemic, before vaccinations were developed. How to conduct an election in the midst of a health crisis became the focus of new lawsuits. Private philanthropy stepped in to underwrite election administration after the federal government failed to come up with sufficient funds to pay the astronomical expenditures incurred due to the pandemic. Voting by mail was a popular choice among COVID-19 patients seeking to avoid the virus, but Republicans were less inclined to do so than Democrats following Trump’s baseless and relentless claims that votes may be used for fraud. Reported election results shifted from Trump to Biden as a result of longer count of mail-in ballots in certain areas like Pennsylvania, adding fuel to the fire of the fraudulent fraud story.
Still unaccountably, Trump urged his supporters to question the legitimacy of the election, which sparked a violent uprising on January 6, 2021. He has successfully fought off impeachment by the Senate, is currently appealing a criminal prosecution that could delay his conviction until after the election, and may even succeed in defending himself against efforts to disqualify him in the Supreme Court. In November 2024, he will likely be back on the ballot, this time challenging Joe Biden for the presidency.
At first glance, the scene for the 2024 election can appear depressing: A lot of people who were involved in making sure that the 2020 election was fair and that power passed peacefully have been either replaced, intimidated, or silenced. The administration has falsely accused researchers who have examined and reported on disinformation of interfering with elections. In response to the hundreds of millions of dollars that Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan’s foundation donated to the 2020 presidential campaign, several conservative states have enacted new legislation prohibiting the use of private cash to assist in election administration. Some government agencies may be reluctant to report instances of election disinformation and foreign influence to social media firms and others due to lawsuits and congressional hearings held by the House committee on the “weaponization of government,” which has an Orwellian name. His accounts have been reinstated by the social media platforms that deplatformed him following his encouragement of violence at the Capitol.
Aaron Van Langevelde, a Republican from Michigan who confirmed Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in the state, and other Republicans in the U.S. House, such as Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, who were either defeated in primaries or decided not to seek reelection, have been ousted from their positions or removed from power. There is a high turnover rate among election officials due to the low salary and the threats and harassment they endure.
Nevertheless, optimism is warranted.
A lot of work has gone into making sure the 2024 election is fairly run. To prevent Trump and his supporters from pulling off any electoral college antics in 2020, Congress changed the rules it used to count electors. A radical idea that would have given state legislatures the authority to circumvent even their own state courts and constitutions in order to limit voting rights was rejected by the Supreme Court last year in Moore v. Harper. Running for chief election officer in swing states in 2022 was a losing proposition for election sceptics. There has been a dramatic increase in the public’s vigilance in response to efforts to manipulate election results. Now that he is out of office, Trump has less resources at his disposal to attempt to influence outcomes. In 2022, when Trump was not on the ballot, the elections went off without a hitch. (As a number of us explained in a recently issued report, “24 for ’24.”), there is enough that can and should be done in the realms of law, politics, media, and technology to guarantee a secure and fair election.
On the other hand, voter trust in the integrity of election outcomes appears to be in worse shape, regardless of political affiliation.
Already, in the event that he loses in 2024, Trump is setting the stage to accuse Biden of voter fraud on the grounds that Democrats are enabling illegal immigration into the country. However, he has not provided any proof to support this assertion. (Voting in presidential elections in the United States is closed to noncitizens.) In the years leading up to the 2020 elections, I erred in thinking that the possibility of a free and fair election in the United States would put an end to the circulation of ridiculous and unfounded allegations of voter fraud. Even now, millions of individuals seeking an explanation for why their beloved candidate might have lost are enthralled by Trump’s ability to create doubt from thin air; unfounded accusations of fraud continue to attract these people. The inevitable result was a Jan. 6 uprising. Even though Trump isn’t the president this time, we should still be very worried about a sequel.
What about Trump’s win, which, despite his many indictments and impeachments, appears to be a serious possibility today? A Trump victory will be hard for liberals to accept; even if violence does not break out during the election, there will be enough attempts at foreign meddling and the dissemination of false information to lead many to believe that the result is inherently unfair and anti-democratic. If Trump suffers a heavy loss in the popular vote but, once again, secures an Electoral College triumph, this will be particularly true. When Trump returns to office, it’s easy to see demonstrations turning violent. This would be particularly true if a newly inaugurated Trump attempted to utilise the Insurrection Act and the help of the military and police to suppress protests in cities.
Two things are necessary for a democratic society to function. The capacity to hold an impartial election is the first. Our partisan system and the polarisation of our times make this already monumental effort even more so. It appears that pillar will remain strong throughout 2024, albeit facing enormous obstacles.
Voter trust in an impartial election process is the second support system component. Democracy fails in the absence of “loser’s consent”—the acceptance of election outcomes as fairly determined by individuals who were on the losing side. Trump has managed to weaken the basis of that second pillar for all people, regardless of his 2024 election victory.