The popularity (or unpopularity) of the current president is thought to be the single strongest predictor of the outcome of a midterm election.
If history repeats itself in 13 days, Democrats will suffer greatly.
According to the most recent Gallup poll, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating among Americans has fallen below 40%, a figure that Democratic candidates and strategists hoping to prevent a loss on November 8 should be terrified of. This is consistent with the AWN Poll of Polls, which places Biden’s approval rating at 41% on average.
According to Gallup data, Biden’s approval rating has been progressively declining over the past few months. In August, his approval rating was 44%, and in September, it was 42%. In other words, the trend line does not favour him.
Currently, Biden is polling worse than his most recent predecessors at the same stage of the campaigning for their first midterm election as president, according to Gallup:
Trump: 43% as of October 2018.
Barack Obama: 45% as of the end of October 2010.
Bush: 67% as of the end of October 2002.
Bill Clinton: 41% as of the middle of October 1994. (He increased later in the month, reaching 48%)
Poor results in both instances were followed by significant midterm losses for the president’s party.
Trump’s Republicans lost the majority and a net of 40 House seats in 2018. Democrats lost the majority and a net of 63 House seats in 2010. In 1994, Democrats also lost the majority in the House and a net of 54 seats. Observe a pattern?
Additionally, all three of those presidents had higher approval ratings before the election than do Biden at the moment.
Not merely recent events indicate that a president’s party will lose a midterm election if his popularity rating is low.
As of 2018, the average number of House seats lost by a president’s party when his or her job approval rating is under 50% throughout Gallup’s polling history, which extends back to the 1940s, was 37. 37!
The decision by well-known political handicappers to increase their projections of Republican House gains can be attributed in large part to Biden’s continued unpopularity.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter revised its forecast for a net Republican gain in House seats on Tuesday from 10 to 20 to 12 to 25 seats. Republicans are leading the fight for control of the House two weeks out, according to David Wasserman, editor of the House.
Another campaign tipsheet, Inside Elections, made a similar change last week by raising their ceiling on Republican gains in the House from 20 to 25. Republican gains could be greater if late-deciding voters turn against Democrats or if Democratic fervour wanes, according to Inside Elections editor Nathan Gonzales.
Right now, it is overwhelmingly likely that Republicans will gain the net five seats they require to take over the House of Representatives. Republicans have a better than 80% chance of regaining the majority they lost four years ago, according to the most recent FiveThirtyEight model.
What remains to be seen is how significant Democratic losses will be. And based on Biden’s present approval ratings and the influence of history, it might be even worse than forecasts at this time.
