Antony Blinken, the United States Secretary of State, made the announcement that Joe Biden would soon visit Israel “to reaffirm the United States’ solidarity with Israel” after a long day of meetings at an Israeli command center in response to the terror attack by Hamas on October 7.
A simple demonstration of solidarity was far from the only intention behind the statement announcing the president’s trip. After nine hours of talks, during which American officials urged Israel to lift its complete blockade of the Gaza Strip to let much-needed humanitarian supplies to enter, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was offered the reward.
The Biden administration faced a tough diplomatic reality only ten days into the Israel-Hamas war: dealing with friends is frequently much more difficult than dealing with foes.
Efforts to bring about peace have been fruitless thus far after a year of war, and reducing the worst effects of the conflict is an ongoing challenge. Opinions from scholars and officials regarding the United States’ role in the Israel-Hamas conflict during the last year and its potential future developments are being voiced as the crisis escalates.
Predetermined strategy for an unpredictable emergency
As soon as the terrorists responsible for the attacks on October 7, 2023, with over 200 hostages in their possession, withdrew into Gaza, it became apparent to U.S. officials that a diplomatic solution was probably the best option to free most of the hostages.
A temporary ceasefire and prisoner exchange were finalized by Thanksgiving by the mediators, allowing over a hundred Israelis and international nationals to return home.
The Biden administration was already facing mounting political backlash at home and was having trouble reconciling its steadfast military backing for Israel with the horrific loss of life in Gaza. When the brief truce started in November 2023, officials at the White House and the State Department were holding their breath, hoping it would be extended until the uncomfortable peace became the status quo.
In an instant, those aspirations vanished. Once again, fighting broke out just before Blinken’s departure for Israel, despite his repeated attempts to prolong the ceasefire.
Since then, the Biden administration and other mediators have been trying to strike a similar accord, leading to tortuous rounds of indirect discussions that ultimately collapsed, all the while the benefits for both parties involved have been dwindling.
According to officials, the parameters being considered would initially only lead to the release of about a dozen living captives, even though about 100 hostages are thought to still be held in Gaza by Hamas. It is worth noting that dozens of these hostages have already died.
Regarding Hamas, numerous officials in the Biden administration have subtly conveyed their profound doubt that Yahya Sinwar, the group’s leader, would ever consent to an agreement that did not guarantee the continuation of his rule over Gaza. This is an idea that both Israel and the United States vehemently reject.
Although negotiations have stalled, the government has persisted in seeking a compromise in a style similar of the apocryphal quote often credited to scientist Albert Einstein: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
The character of the parties concerned doomed attempts to establish a permanent peace from the beginning, according to Marina Ottaway, a Middle East fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center. There are other explanations for the recurring diplomatic failures, she added.
“The major players in the regional drama do not recognize the 21st-century international order and are not willing to abide by its rules,” according to her. “The best diplomacy can do little when dealing with actors who play only by their own rules.”
Aside from Israel’s strong opposition to international conventions, Ottaway claims that Hamas and Hezbollah’s motivations are ideological rather than global.
“Yes, it is a state, an internationally recognized entity with a seat at the United Nations and in other international organizations, but it does not recognize the legitimacy of those organizations and their right to impose any restrictions on its actions,” according to her.
The top American officials have also maintained an unrealistically narrow emphasis on the administration’s central goal of normalizing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as a means to achieve peace in the Middle East in the distant future.
The two nations seemed more committed than ever before to finalizing a deal on the evening of October 7, 2023. Israeli officials today consider the idea of an independent Palestinian state as dead on arrival, while Saudi Arabia’s top officials have said time and again that normalization cannot occur until it is established.
According to Dana El Kurd, a senior nonresident fellow at the Arab Center Washington, “U.S. decision-makers seem to have not absorbed any lessons from the past year of conflict” when writing for Foreign Policy.
“Discussions of the ‘day after’ in Gaza remain out of touch with reality,” according to her. “With no deviation from the current path, the tragedy will only continue.”
Shifts in strategy and a growing conflict
The Biden administration has spent the better part of a year focusing on stopping the conflict in Gaza and other parts of the Middle East from becoming even more inflamed.
Following last month’s explosive confrontation at the northern border with Lebanon, the United States sought a truce between Hezbollah and Israel. However, it soon abandoned its attempts to achieve a truce and openly supported Israel’s campaign, which included the elimination of key terror targets.
The Biden administration, according to Middle East Institute senior fellow and U.S. foreign policy expert Brian Katulis, is mired in a never-ending cycle of reaction because of its “wishful thinking” and “unwillingness to exert leverage” to accomplish its goals.
“The basic impulse of the Biden administration [is] to avoid adopting a more proactive stance in its diplomatic and military approaches across the Middle East,” according to him. “The current crisis will likely shape and define America’s relationship with the region for years to come.”
