The Trump campaign’s decision to create an office in Hamtramck, a small city of about 28,000 people north of downtown Detroit, less than a month before the election highlights a special fascination about the 2024 presidential contest.
About 40% of Hamtramck’s citizens are of Middle Eastern or North African heritage, with 60% reported to be Muslim Americans, and the city council is entirely Muslim.
Last week, as Israel expanded its war into Lebanon and continued its daily bombardment of Gaza, scores of people – many of whom were immigrants from Bangladesh, Yemen, and other Arab- and Muslim-majority nations – lined Joseph Campau Avenue to attend Trump’s official office opening.
“Peace in the Middle East will not happen under a Harris administration – she’s too weak,” said Barry Altman, a Republican Party candidate competing for a seat in Michigan’s House of Representatives next month and running the new Trump campaign office on a recent afternoon. “Trump is the only hope for peace.”
Altman isn’t alone. Last month, Amer Ghalib, the Democratic mayor of Hamtramck, expressed his support for Donald Trump after meeting the former president at a rally in Flint, Michigan, where they spoke for nearly 20 minutes.
In previous elections, Arab Americans voted overwhelmingly Democratic, particularly in the years following 9/11 and in light of Trump’s explicitly anti-Muslim statements. However, with Kamala Harris reportedly “underwater” in Michigan, trailing Trump by three points among likely voters after leading the former president by five points as recently as last month, according to one recent poll, Muslim and Arab American communities across Michigan could play a significant role in the outcome of the presidential election.
Arab Americans may be willing to ignore Trump’s history of close ties to Israel’s hard-right leaders because they are angry with the Biden administration – and, by implication, Kamala Harris – for their support for Israel. “If, and when, they say, when I’m president, the US will once again be stronger and closer [to Israel] than it ever was,” according to what he stated last week. “I will support Israel’s right to win its war.”
However, national polls reveal that Arab Americans favor the former president somewhat, while others are growing vociferous in their support for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
While Hamtramck may not impact a national election on its own, it does provide insight into how many Muslim and Arab Americans feel about their political leaders, as Israel’s war on Gaza enters its second year and stretches to Lebanon.
Aside from Hamtramck, Macomb and Oakland counties north of downtown Detroit are home to an estimated 140,000 people, accounting for around 45% of Michigan’s total Arab American population of over 300,000.
Previous elections have shown that voting in these counties is typically close.
In 2020, Trump got 53% of the vote in Macomb County, which is home to an estimated 65,000-80,000 Arab Americans. Even in Macomb County, voters are divided: Trump won Sterling Heights, a city with a substantial Iraqi Chaldean community, by 11%, while Biden won Warren, a neighboring city, by 14%.
Four years ago, Biden received 56% of the vote in Oakland County, a predominantly suburban community with approximately 60,000 Arab American residents.
But during the last year, Michigan’s Arab and Muslim communities have frequently chastised Biden and Harris. Earlier this year, several community leaders refused to meet with Democratic campaign officials rather than Biden administration personnel to discuss the Gaza war. Weeks later, more than 100,000 Michigan residents voted “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary in protest of Biden’s Gaza policy.
Despite initial cautious optimism, Biden’s replacement by Harris at the head of the ticket hasn’t improved the picture much, particularly as the Middle East has become more turbulent.
“Harris made it very clear that she wanted to continue funding the state of Israel,” said Hassan Abdel Salam, director of the Abandon Harris campaign, during a press conference in Dearborn on Wednesday to officially endorse Jill Stein for president.
Harris has maintained her position on Israel’s right to self-defense while generally ignoring the conditions given out by the undecided movement, which has declined to endorse her (but has strongly opposed Trump). According to an Arab American Institute poll, Harris is 18 points lower in popularity among Arab Americans than Biden in 2020.
“We know that there are 40,000 voters only in Dearborn. They are quite receptive to our cause, and we are confident that if they vote, they will vote against Harris,” said Abdel Salam.
“The former president prevented our families, friends, and colleagues from entering the country,” he said, alluding to Trump’s 2017 travel ban on seven Muslim-majority countries. “But the vice-president killed them.”
Trump’s visit to Detroit on Thursday will be his 11th in the state. Harris has campaigned here five times.
