Donald Trump is in a stronger position to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 than he has been in months, as his party rallies around him following his indictment on business fraud charges by a New York grand jury.
Nevertheless, actual results imply that the previous president may not be helpful for the GOP brand among the general voters.
On the same day that Trump was arraigned in Manhattan, Democratic-backed Janet Protasiewicz hailed victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, giving liberals control of the high court in the ultimate swing state.
This result is part of a larger trend in which Democrats and Democratic-backed candidates have performed better in elections this year than Joe Biden did in their states or districts in 2020. And that could bode well for Democrats’ chances in 2024.
Wisconsin education
The outcome in Wisconsin encapsulates the GOP problem. After Trump captured the state by a similar percentage four years earlier, Biden won it by less than a point in 2020. Wisconsin is one of only a few states that has voted for the victor in each of the last four presidential elections, and it is one of only a few that has a US senator from each party.
As compared to Biden’s 2020 performance in Wisconsin, Protasiewicz’s 11-point victory margin against her GOP opponent is a relative blowout.
Another Tuesday election in Wisconsin, this time a state Senate election in the Milwaukee area, demonstrates the Democratic outperformance. While not as widely discussed as the state Supreme Court election, Republicans needed to keep the open seat in order to gain a supermajority in the state Senate.
The Republican candidate was victorious, but only by two points. This was a 3-point improvement for the Democratic nominee, who lost the district by 5 points in 2020.
The Wisconsin results are consistent with what we’ve seen so far in the country’s 2023 special elections.
In Virginia’s 4th Congressional District, Democrat Jennifer McCllean surpassed Biden’s 2020 margin by 13 points in the lone federal special election held this year.
Democrats have done around 4 points better than Biden’s margin in nearly 20 special state legislative elections on average.
Because the president won the 2020 election, the fact that the political landscape appears to be healthier for Democrats today than it was then is a positive indicator for his party.
It also contrasts sharply with what we witnessed in 2019, when Democrats in special elections came close to matching Hillary Clinton’s 2016 percentages. This comes after Democrats outperformed Clinton in the 2018 midterm elections. It was a sign that the 2020 elections were approaching.
President Unpopular
What makes the Democrats’ strong showings this year even more unusual is that they are taking place while Biden’s support rating remains in the low 40s. Typically, an unpopular president’s party would not fare well in off-year elections.
This implies that the current factors are comparable to those in the second half of 2022. Following the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade midway through the year, Democrats began to outperform Biden’s 2020 margins in special election districts.
The Democrats enjoyed a historically outstanding midterm election night in November. Despite Biden’s approval rating being considerably below 50%, they more than held their own.
According to midterm exit surveys, many voters who disliked Biden or Trump voted Democratic. Almost all of the critical races in the states that will almost certainly decide the presidential election in 2024 went Democratic. To put it another way, Biden was not the determining factor among swing votes that you may have predicted. Even though he wasn’t president, Trump influenced their vote.
Neither abortion nor Trump appear to be going away in 2023.
Abortion was at the forefront of the Wisconsin Supreme Court contest, with liberals anticipating that Protasiewicz’s victory would give them a majority to legalise abortion statewide.
Despite his indictment and his unpopularity among the general electorate, Trump remains the obvious favourite for the Republican presidential nomination.
Republicans may be in big trouble if these factors don’t change by 2024.