The controversial Republican from Colorado, Rep. Lauren Boebert, may not be able to gain a third term in Congress by switching districts before next year’s election, but the GOP should have a better chance of keeping her seat inherited.
Reelection was won by Boebert last year by the slimmest of margins—546 votes, or less than 0.02%. And that’s while representing the 3rd District of Colorado, a large and primarily rural area that went 8 percentage points for Trump in 2020.
The tea leaves for 2024: She may have had an even more challenging year than 2023. Adam Frisch, the Democrat that Boebert deposed last year, was a former Aspen city council member who was running again, and he had raised $8.6 million by the end of September, riding on Boebert’s ostentatious reputation and shame.
As a result, Frisch is now the country’s leading challenger. From January through September, of all congressional candidates—incumbents included—only soon-to-be-retiring Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who was deposed as House speaker by a majority of his peers, had raised more money.
Jeff Hurd, an attorney and Boebert’s Republican primary opponent, had the backing of powerful establishment leaders like Bill Owens, Colorado’s former governor.
Where is Boebert re-running for office? He has amassed $3.2 million in campaign contributions and had $1.4 million on hand as of the end of September. He will instead run for office in the 4th District of the state.
Despite sharing a border, the two districts’ population centres are somewhat distant from one another. The majority of the 3rd District’s constituents live in what is commonly referred to as the Western Slope of Colorado, which is located west of the Continental Divide. The eastern section of the state is covered by the 4th District, which will have an open seat once GOP Rep. Ken Buck announces his retirement.
Trump won the 4th District by 19 points in 2020, further demonstrating the district’s Republican leanings. Although Boebert is new to the district and its residents, there is already a field of Republican contenders seeking to replace Buck. These candidates may not be deterred by Boebert.
The potential benefits: On Wednesday night, Frisch announced that he will be continuing his campaign. However, depending on the Republican nominee, it may be more difficult for him to defeat Boebert without her baggage, such as her feuds with lawmakers or her expulsion from a Denver production of “Beetlejuice” due to inappropriate behaviour with her date.
Furthermore, each seat is important for both parties; the Republicans currently have a slim majority of five, which might shrink to four if they lose the Long Island seat that was held by expelled lawmaker George Santos (R-N.Y.).
Boebert, meantime, will have six months to make a good impression on the Republican voters in her new area before the primary in late June. She ran for her present seat in the media markets of Pueblo and Colorado Springs, which are in the district’s southern half.
Her profile may be more known to tabloid readers than the remainder of the new district, which shares borders with Wyoming, Nebraska, and Kansas.
