Another horrific shooting and a new blow to abortion rights across the country have put Republicans on the hot seat on two of the most divisive subjects in American politics.
But the GOP had almost nothing to say, demonstrating how it is bound into beliefs that energise its most ardent grassroots supporters but risk alienating it from the majority of the public.
A contentious verdict by a conservative judge in Texas that could put an end to the use of a popular abortion medication nationwide, as well as another shooting rampage, this time in Kentucky, provoked indignation among Democrats and calls for stronger gun safety regulations and abortion rights protection.
Most Republicans remained mute on two problems where they have accomplished their electoral and policy objectives but are jeopardising the party’s long-term sustainability.
Following the shooting in downtown Louisville on Monday, Kentucky’s Republican senators expressed their condolences but provided no recommendations for how the tragedy, which killed five people and injured eight more, could have been avoided. A law enforcement official claimed the gunman fired a firearm in the attack after being informed of his probable layoff from a bank job.
“As we await additional details, we send our thoughts to the victims, their families, and the city of Louisville,” Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell said in a tweet that also hailed first responders. Sen. Rand Paul, meantime, tweeted that he and his wife were “praying for everyone involved in the horrific shooting,” adding that “our hearts bleed for the families of those who were killed.”
Democrats expressed their sorrow as well, but they also had a more practical answer. President Joseph Biden called for gun safety reforms that would be unachievable with Republicans controlling the House of Representatives and Democrats having more Senate seats. “Too many Americans are paying with their lives for the cost of delay.” When will Republicans in Congress take action to safeguard our neighbourhoods?” In a tweet, Biden inquired.
Morgan McGarvey, a Democrat who represents Louisville in House, has advocated for measures to combat gun violence. “Thoughts and prayers for those we lost, those injured, and their loved ones and families are welcomed,” the freshman congressman stated. “But, tonight serves as a clear reminder that we need to address gun violence at the national level.”
Republicans’ power base was founded on gun and abortion politics.
Republicans have effectively utilised gun rights and a push to eliminate a constitutional right to abortion to mobilise their most ardent supporters during the last few decades. Yet, in a purely political sense, it’s difficult to argue that they haven’t notched up significant victories on each topic.
In the United States, there are more guns than ever before. Republicans around the country are driving attempts to reduce firearms regulation and expand citizens’ ability to carry firearms. Despite a vicious string of killings in schools, nightclubs, places of worship, and, most recently, a bank, the party has essentially shut down all substantial efforts in Congress to make it more difficult to obtain guns, especially the assault-style rifles used in previous shootings. Last year, Congress approved a bipartisan attempt to urge states to adopt red flag legislation, which would allow authorities to seize weapons from persons suspected of posing a threat. But, its success was all the more remarkable given the dearth of other federal legislation in earlier decades.
Meanwhile, the 50-year conservative battle to repeal Roe v. Wade is one of history’s most astonishing successes for a long-term political movement. It culminated last year with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Nonetheless, these well-publicized victories may pose a considerable risk to the party.
South Carolina Republican Rep. Nancy Mace describes herself as “pro-life,” but warns that GOP-backed state laws that don’t make exceptions for rape, incest, or the health of the mother alienate huge and important segments of the American vote. Mace was a rare Republican to reply publicly to Texas Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk’s abortion medication ruling last week, which Democratic groups have used to rehash charges Republicans desire a national abortion ban.
“We’re getting this wrong,” Mace remarked on “AWN This Morning” on Monday. “We must show sympathy to women, especially those who have been raped.” We need to be compassionate on the abortion issue since, in general, most People disagree with us.” She urged the US Food and Drug Administration to disregard the judge’s decision, siding with progressive Democrats such as New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Republicans’ success in tightening abortion restrictions and loosening those on weapons can be attributed to their voters’ support for these two topics. They are make-or-break for many activists, and candidates’ platforms have shifted as a result. Democrats, on the other hand, have historically been less successful in rousing their core voters on both issues. The disparity in intensity among the parties was one aspect in the chain of events that resulted in a new conservative Supreme Court majority overturning Roe. Democrats have skirted the gun issue for years, fearful of losing more moderate or soft conservative voters.
Democratic campaigns are becoming more combative.
Yet, there are hints that this may be changing. Abortion was a major incentive for Democratic voters in the midterm elections last year, and the Supreme Court’s decision obviously hampered Republican candidates in numerous critical swing states. In Wisconsin, which reverted to a pre-Civil War legislation prohibiting practically all abortions after Roe was overturned, the topic was important to a liberal candidate’s success in last week’s state Supreme Court campaign, which switched the conservative majority.
This week, liberal rage at the inability to pass new gun laws sparked a political storm in Tennessee. Republicans booted two Black Democratic lawmakers from the Tennessee House of Representatives for spearheading a gun-control demonstration inside the chamber the week before, following a mass shooting at a Nashville elementary school that killed six people, including three nine-year-olds. This exemplified Democrats’ rising anger with their inaction in the face of seemingly constant mass shootings. (One of the lawmakers, Justin Jones, was sworn back in on an interim basis on Monday when the Nashville Metropolitan Council opted to appoint him.)
Despite the shifting political landscape, there are few indications that top Republican officials are eager to adjust the party’s position on guns or abortion. Or that they have the necessary political space to do so. Even if it makes sense for Republicans to appeal to a broader audience in order to avoid alienating important suburban, moderate, and female voters, the fervour of their core followers makes this an impossible balancing act. It’s a similar dynamic to the one that has long plagued many GOP power brokers in the face of Donald Trump. The former president is still so popular among base voters that his Republican opponents risk their careers by publicly rejecting him. Yet, he has long been a liability among general election voters, as evidenced by the Republican Party’s performance in 2020 and 2022.
The party’s failure to agree with the majority of Americans on abortion and some areas of gun safety may be unsustainable. According to polls, many voters, particularly younger Americans, are turning away from the party because of its positions.
According to a Harvard Youth Poll conducted before to the incident in Nashville, 63% of 18-to-29-year-olds believe gun restrictions should be tightened, 22% believe they should remain the same, and 13% believe they should be relaxed. Young Americans are generally on the same page as the larger populace. According to a Gallup poll conducted in October 2022, 57% of all Americans believe that restrictions governing the sale of weapons should be tightened, 32% believe that laws should remain the same, and 10% believe that laws should be relaxed.
According to a PRRI analysis that evaluated polling on the issue over the last year, only 26% of Americans favour laws making it unlawful to use or receive through the mail FDA-approved medications for a medical abortion, while 72% oppose such restrictions. While 50% of White evangelical Protestants support making the use or possession of these drugs illegal, less than half of any other racial, gender, educational, or age group agrees.
In a January Gallup poll, 46% of Americans stated they were unhappy with US abortion rules and would prefer less stringent abortion laws. This is a new high in the firm’s 23-year history, up from 30% in January 2022 and only 17% in 2021.
Given these statistics and previous election results, it’s not unexpected that some Republicans who aren’t aggressively wooing the base may avoid discussing firearms and abortion in depth. Yet such statistics may also help to explain the GOP’s increasingly anti-democratic tilt as it strives to retain power, whether through efforts to remove Tennessee lawmakers for disrupting decorum with anti-gun rallies or Trump’s insistence that he won an election he actually lost.
