The majority of battleground states are overrun with political advertisements on television. Republican gubernatorial candidates, though, are notably absent from the airwaves in several states.
According to an AWN analysis of expenditure in state elections, Republicans are scarcely, if at all, spending money on television advertisements in several of the most fiercely contested gubernatorial battlegrounds. And elsewhere, Democratic opponents are dramatically outspending GOP candidates who are on the radio.
Republican candidates are still facing a huge funding imbalance in the closing weeks before the election, despite the efforts of partisan super PACs or groups supported by the Republican Governors Association. In President Joe Biden’s first midterm election, the wide gap between Democrats and their opponents will test both Republicans’ ability to rely on the political climate to carry them and one of the oldest campaigning axioms: that, even in the digital age, early and frequent TV advertising is the best way to reach the general public and shape voter opinion and media coverage.
Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are three of the politically divisive states where the expenditure difference has been particularly pronounced. There, a trio of candidates—Kari Lake, Tudor Dixon, and Doug Mastriano—who were backed by former President Donald Trump have mainly been absent from the airways.
Republicans aren’t necessarily silenced as a result of this. The Republican Governors Association has spent a lot of money on Arizona’s airwaves while Lake has been away, and this is likely to be one of their biggest investments of the year. In Michigan, a super PAC sponsored by the influential DeVos family has provided some assistance to the Dixon campaign.
But one of the problems facing the GOP is that they haven’t raised as much money as their Democratic rivals have, or as much as statewide races have historically raised. Some candidates just lack the funding necessary to undertake a lengthy TV campaign or to draw significant outside support for their campaigns.
According to RGA spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez, “Partnerships are crucial to successful campaigns and we’re delighted to help our candidates who are raising the money necessary to spend competitively and guarantee their message reaches the people needed to build a winning coalition.”
A straightforward dollar-for-dollar comparison probably understates the financial hole some Republican contenders are in. A dollar from a candidate effectively buys more eyes than a dollar from an ad buy supported by a super PAC or a national party organisation since candidates can typically purchase television advertisements at a lower cost than outside entities.
“I’ve heard a notion that advertising campaigns require funding. Barrett Marson, a Republican operative in Arizona who worked for a super PAC supporting one of Lake’s primary rivals and has criticised the electability of the statewide GOP ticket, said, “I don’t know if that allegation is real, but if it is then we have the reason why Kari Lake isn’t up on TV.
Marson remarked, “There hasn’t been any advertising on the Republican side of this contest. “Her own earned media interviews, which are frequently negative, are pretty much the only message TV viewers truly get about Kari Lake.”
Lake herself has downplayed the significance of advertisements as the foundation of an effective campaign. In a recent interview, she stated to AWN that she did not “hugely believe” in running TV advertisements, stopping them at the conclusion of a difficult primary where her opponent was outspending her 17-to-1 — and then winning the nomination nevertheless.
According to Lake, who was interviewed for the position, “I think I’m a unique candidate in that I didn’t need to run as much advertising to let people know who I am, since they already knew who I was.”
However, the RGA has given her extensive air coverage in the state for the last few weeks of the election, which Marson believes could be a deciding factor in a tight race. Through the Yuma County Republican Party, the RGA has avoided engaging with the state party and channelled spending totaling millions of dollars. As a result, the county party can work together with the Lake campaign and, more importantly, negotiate a lower advertising fee.
Although there is a significant disparity in spending in Arizona, public opinion polling shows little difference between Lake and Katie Hobbs, the Democratic candidate for governor. They are separated by less than a point according to polling averages, and AWN predicts a tie.
The same cannot be true, however, for Mastriano in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Josh Shapiro has been hammering him on the airways for months largely without a reaction. Shapiro has also built up a reasonably comfortable lead in recent surveys.
In addition, an in-state group that was running commercials against Shapiro appears to have lost ties with Mastriano in September. His campaign adviser even sought to pick a battle with the RGA for not supporting him. Mastriano has been virtually abandoned by national Republicans.
However, Mastriano did release his first TV ad of the general election last week in what his campaign billed a million-dollar buy, avoiding most of the far-right talking points he frequently promotes on the campaign trail or in interviews and focused instead on his military service.
Still, Shapiro has a considerable fundraising advantage over him, which contributes significantly to the fact that he is being outspent.
Chris Nicholas, a seasoned GOP consultant in the state, claimed that “Mastriano didn’t have to run a lot of TV in the primary, and Josh Shapiro has had more than $20 million [on air] and Mastriano has had nothing.” Shapiro’s total is anticipated to be significantly higher by election’s end: at least $35 million since he began his campaign.
Nicholas pointed out that despite this, a race is not usually finished when there is a spending gap that large. Running TV advertisements, “no matter when you start to do it,” according to Mastriano, is advantageous.
Dixon, the Michigan gubernatorial candidate, does not appear on television either, and current polls show that she is substantially behind. Instead, her campaign has mostly relied on Michigan Families United, a linked super PAC that was the only one airing ads in September.
