With only a dozen House seats and a couple of Senate seats up for grabs this November, the battle for control of Congress is as tight as it has ever been. The outcome will likely determine the majority and whether one party takes over the presidency.
Legislators are getting back to work in Washington for a three-week session of the legislature, far from the “trench warfare” and seat-by-seat grind of the campaign road. Far from the states where Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are vying for the presidency, many of the most prominent races are taking place in places like Montana, New York, and California, among others.
The down-ballot campaigns are in a precarious position heading into the fall, with every seat won or lost having the potential to determine party control. This is all because of the summer shake-up, which put Harris at the head of the Democratic ticket, replacing Joe Biden.
According to strategists, the main question now is not so much the specifics of the races themselves as which political party is more enthusiastic and committed to getting its supporters to the polls.
Since Harris took over for Biden, the Democratic campaigns have received an influx of funds, volunteers, and enthusiastic voters. That poses a problem for Republicans who were hoping to make gains in the election cycle thanks to Trump’s comeback attempt, even though he is facing criminal charges that could prevent him from running again.
With the Supreme Court’s decision granting former presidents broad immunity from prosecution, including for certain acts related to his effort to overturn the 2020 election and for the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, Trump and the Republicans are working tirelessly to reclaim the momentum they enjoyed after the GOP convention in Milwaukee.
According to another Republican who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the confidential meeting, Trump’s campaign staff assured House Republicans during a private conference call on Friday that the movement is turning to Trump as they plotted future initiatives.
Anxieties and hand-wringing over the direction of the race are rampant, according to Trump loyalist and National Republican Senatorial Committee director Steve Daines of Montana.
At a Las Vegas event hosted by the Republican Jewish Coalition, Daines portrayed Republican Senate candidates as fighters and anticipated that rural voters, who are willing to “crawl over broken glass” in support of Trump, will aid Republicans like Sam Brown, who is running against Democratic Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen.
Republican strategists on both sides of the aisle agree that the current funding disparity between the party and the Democrats is a major issue, since it means the Republicans cannot afford to keep up with the costs of advertising and grassroots organizing.
Daines acknowledged that there is much work ahead of them.
There is no longer room for error in political campaigns or actual government due to the new era of razor-thin margins, which has replaced the days of supermajorities in the House and Senate.
Senate poised for a deadlock
With West Virginia’s independent Senator Joe Manchin’s resignation, the Democrats’ razor-thin margin is likely to shrink to a dead heat with the Republicans. Because of his resignation, Republican Jim Justice will be able to easily take that position.
Senate Republicans regard Montana as their greatest opportunity to take the offensive in their bid to Democratic Senator Jon Tester, according to Trump’s massive popularity in the state. Ads for Tester are costing over $238 million in the Big Sky state, where he is also well-liked.
This cycle, Republicans in the Senate were able to confront Democrats with well-connected, hand-picked candidates in states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania because there were few incumbents to defend. Only in far distant campaigns against Republican senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida have Democrats recently taken the offensive.
In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick is challenging Democrat Bob Casey, and in Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown is running a playful cookie-eating TV ad as he faces Republican Bernie Moreno. However, incumbents usually bring longevity and name recognition to the race, making them difficult to topple.
Despite being courted to run by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, the former popular governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, faces a formidable opponent in county executive Angela Alsobrooks for the vacant seat in the heavily Democratic state of Maryland. Being one of the very few Black women elected to the Senate would cement her place in history.
Democrats are expected to maintain their majority, according to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). Since the vice president has the power to cast the deciding vote in the event of a Senate split, the party in power in the White House is guaranteed majority control.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee head and Michigan senator Gary Peters stated, “Democrats have never been in a stronger position to defend our Senate majority.”
Uncertainty over House majority
This summer, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) traveled to over 20 states as a symbol of his party’s “ambassador of hope” campaigning to preserve their tenuous majority in the chamber.
Republicans are using the offensive to take on Democrats in other districts while simultaneously attempting to defend 18 Republicans in districts that were won by Biden but are heavily Democratic. These districts are located in coastal California and New York.
Democrats in the House, however, are reaping the benefits of Harris’s surge in support. Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington state served as campaign chairwoman for Biden and was among those who privately discussed the possibility of down-ballot drag with him as he considered dropping out of the race.
A small group of moderate Democrats, including Pennsylvania’s Marcy Kaptur and Ohio’s Marcy Gluesenkamp Perez, as well as three younger Democrats—Alaska’s Mary Peltola, Washington’s Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, and Maine’s Jared Golden—are fighting to defend their own vulnerable House members.
Republican notables include Nick Begich of Alaska, Joe Kent of Washington, who has endorsed Trump, and Maine’s Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR racer.
A few short years ago, Republicans were a predominantly white male party with very few women in its ranks. Since then, the party has made tremendous efforts to diversify its membership. To illustrate the point, in 2018, only twelve Republican women and zero Black Republicans remained in the House.
According to National Republican Congressional Committee chairman and Republican representative Richard Hudson, House Republicans are “right where we expected to be” and have acknowledged that they are engaged in a “trench warfare” battle.
