Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are in a virtual tie in several crucial states as they prepare for their final push following the Labor Day holiday weekend; this has completely changed the presidential race, which only has two months to go until Election Day.
Following his withdrawal on July 21 and handoff to his vice president, Joe Biden has re-energized a race that was beginning to go away from him. The vice president has won over important demographics that had previously turned against Biden, including young people and Black voters.
Harris, 59, has transformed the age issue, which was formerly a fatal weakness for Democrats, into a strength in their fight against Trump, 78 years old. Even while he was confidently competing against Biden, the former president has occasionally looked frightened by Harris, who would become the first woman and Indian American to hold the office, and who has launched personal and racial assaults against her. They have been dismissed by her.
Republican strategist Brad Todd claimed, “It’s a toss-up race,” implying that the party’s prospects are not as promising as they were under the 81-year-old Biden’s leadership.
To further establish Harris’s status as a “far-left candidate” in 2020, Todd asked Trump to emphasize her many stances on a variety of issues, including healthcare, energy, immigration, and more. After that, Harris tried to focus herself, claiming that her “values haven’t changed” during the past five years.
According to him, in order for Donald Trump to succeed, she must be held responsible for her stated beliefs. “However, he hasn’t demonstrated much enthusiasm for that as of yet.”
An assassination attempt on Trump, an unusually early debate that doomed Biden’s re-election aspirations, and a GOP convention that seemed like a Trump victory party were all part of the unprecedented events that occurred in the summer of 2024. By withdrawing from the contest, Biden effectively handed the candidacy to Harris, who then surged in the polls to a tie and turned the tables on the race. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped his independent bid and joined Trump just before the late-August Democratic convention, which revealed a party that was joyous and revitalized. The first of two scheduled one-on-one debates between Trump and Harris is set for next week on September 10th.
‘Basically a brawl between dogs.’
Even while they’re ahead in the election, Democrats insist it’s far from over.
Bill Burton, a political consultant who assisted Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, declared, “I still think it’s fundamentally a dogfight,” while complimenting Harris on the “perfect” campaign she has conducted thus far.
According to Burton, it’s hard to fathom the Democratic Party’s enthusiasm at this stage if Biden were running the show. “She has peaked just when it counts,” he remarked. I think she’ll be fine as long as she maintains a steady rudder.
A USA Today/Suffolk poll shows that Harris has a four-point advantage against Trump, while a Wall Street Journal survey shows that she has a two-point lead. The election is close, with Harris holding a razor-thin lead, according to recent polls in many states that Biden won by a hair in 2020. These states include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Not only is Harris competitive in the so-called “blue wall” areas, but she has also re-energized the Biden campaign in the Sun Belt states of North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.
The campaign chair of Harris, Jen O’Malley Dillon, wrote in a Sunday memo: “[M]ake no mistake: we head into the final stretch of this race as the clear underdogs.” There is more support for Donald Trump and a higher level of favorability than at any time since 2020, indicating that his base of supporters is highly energized.
As Trump tries to win over younger Black men, Burton noted that Harris still has a ways to go before she can win over important constituencies, especially Black votes.
“Some of the support with white voters” that is appearing in today’s surveys “is going to be a little superficial, and she’ll have to make up for it,” Burton stated.
“Track the Black vote,” he warned. “In my opinion, that’s where the majority of the opportunities and concerns lie.”
Reversing their previously controversial stances is an attempt by both politicians to lessen their vulnerability. Medicare for All and the decriminalization of migration are two left-wing policies that Harris supported in 2019, but she has since abandoned them. Despite boasting about his anti-abortion record, Trump is now reversing his position on federal abortion limits and implying that he will not seek to dismantle “Obamacare” despite his previous opposition to the law.
Distinct forces at play in the congressional race
With the presidential race drawing near, the focus has shifted to the congressional race, which presents its own set of challenges: the red states, like Ohio and Montana, control the Senate, while the blue states, like California and New York, control the House.
A handful of swing districts have the potential to determine the outcome of the House’s tight race for power. Thanks to party gerrymandering and regional polarization, where rural areas vote Republican and urban areas vote Democrat, the playing field has shrunk significantly in recent cycles.
Since Biden’s withdrawal, Democrats have seen a tiny improvement in the “generic ballot,” which measures voter preferences for the party they would want to see control of Congress. However, the margin is still narrow. Within the margin of error, Democrats held a one-point lead in polls conducted by the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and the Economist.
Regardless of how well the Democrats do this year, the Senate map gives Republicans a fantastic chance to take control. The Democrats have already admitted defeat in West Virginia due to Sen. Joe Manchin’s departure, and they presently possess 51 seats. That leaves two red states where Trump is running away with the election: Ohio’s Sherrod Brown and Montana’s Jon Tester, where Republicans can win and secure a majority.
Tester is now in the rear, with Brown just ahead of him in most public surveys; this is in contrast to 2018, when he was in the lead and ultimately won.
A GOP consultant named Todd claimed that 51 seats were “a certainty” and that the party should strive for a larger majority, such as 53 or 54 members.
“Jon Tester is frankly as lifeless as the Thanksgiving turkey,” he declared.
“This is a tight race that’s within the margin of error — that’s the kind of race Tester always faces and knows how to win,” said a national Democrat focusing on Senate races, challenging that idea.
Republican leaders are reportedly prepared to settle for a slim majority this time around, in stark contrast to their usually empty predictions of a red wave and a huge majority in 2022.
The objective, according to a Republican strategist involved in Senate campaigns, is to change the majority. “In that regard, Bernie Moreno [of Ohio] is also in the running, but Tim Sheehy [of Montana] is the most consequential man in the nation.”
In addition to Michigan, Democrats are fighting for seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, all of which are extremely competitive states. All five have Democratic candidates, and Republicans acknowledge they’re not doing very well.
The GOP strategist made the comment in reference to the vacant seat left by Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan: “The growing view among Republican strategists is that Michigan is the best pickup opportunity in the country, of the purple states.”.
The two red states where the Republican senators are most popular, Florida and Texas, offer Democrats a ray of optimism. Despite tiny leads in some polls, Rick Scott and Ted Cruz are favorites to retain their seats.
According to Burton, Republican candidates are becoming increasingly concerned based on recent polling results from states like Florida and Texas. Both the Florida campaign of Debbie Mucarsel Powell and the Texas campaign of Colin Allred “are conducting fantastic campaigns – He warned that they might be on defensive if they wanted to secure a majority.