In years past, Labor Day has signaled the last push for presidential campaigns. However, due to this year’s hectic and compressed calendar, the key marker is the holiday that represents the beginning of summer instead of its end.
With a presidential election that is very close and could come down to a number of swing states, the Memorial Day celebration on Monday will be followed by a nasty political season. Because this is only the second time in history that two sitting presidents are challenging each other for a second term, the stakes are sure to be higher in the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Upon his return to the Manhattan courtroom on Tuesday for his first criminal trial, Trump will immediately highlight the unique nature of the 2024 election. He faces charges of concealing a hush money payment to an adult film star prior to the 2016 election by falsifying bank records. (He has denied having an affair with the actress and has pleaded not guilty.) Once the month-long trial is over, the attorneys for both sides will present their last arguments. The judge will then entrust the jury with the historic responsibility of determining, for the first time, whether the former president and presumed nominee will be found guilty of a crime.
Considering the relatively stable presidential campaign, where no contender has been able to break away, the potential repercussions of a conviction or acquittal in our deeply divided society are uncertain. Is there a chance that Trump’s record felony conviction would turn off the crucial suburban swing-state voters who could determine the outcome of the election? On the other hand, has Trump disseminated his story about being a victim of politically motivated charges to such an extent that a guilty verdict would have no effect? If the ex-president were to get off the hook, he could very well claim that the three criminal charges against him were unfounded. Even though Trump is the most unconventional modern president and attempted to depose democracy following his defeat by Joe Biden, a campaign entangled with his legal issues would suddenly appear more like a conventional election in November, given that those cases are not likely to go to trial before the election.
Following the New York verdict announcement, all eyes will turn to AWN’s first presidential debate, which airs at the end of June at an unusually early hour. Even while he has lagged somewhat in swing states, Biden is eager for a head-to-head matchup that could happen sooner than normal so that he can reverse the race’s direction. Along with highlighting Trump’s anti-democratic and irrational nature, the president wants Americans to pay attention to the severe measures his opponent has pledged to use during his second term in office. The rising popularity of early and mail-in voting provides an argument for moving the presidential debates from their customary fall slot to a more convenient time of year. In September, ABC will air the second presidential debate; but, Trump’s campaign is fighting his requests for more direct confrontations between him and Biden.
Trump irritates Biden by jumping on a new abortion dispute
Thursday gave a sneak peek at how the remainder of the campaign could play out, with the Trump trial on pause before Memorial Day. The “direct result of Trump overturning Roe v. Wade” according to Biden, was the new law that Louisiana legislators passed that would designate abortion-inducing medications as prohibited hazardous substances. His point was that the right to abortion was nullified on a national level by the conservative majority that Trump assembled on the Supreme Court. All around the United States, women are experiencing a terrifying period right now. When Trump takes office again, he would seek to bring policies enacted in places like Louisiana to a national level, according to Biden.
Despite doubts regarding the longevity of Biden’s electoral coalition, Democrats are banking on the fact that Biden has greater popular support than Trump on the subject of abortion to boost their turnout. When a conservative state or judge takes a strong stance against abortion, the former president’s vacillating stance on the matter and his most recent one—that the matter should be left to the states—do little to shield him politically.
This summer, one of the most important things to watch will be the former president’s ability to hold on to what some surveys indicate is an exceptionally good position for a Republican among minority voters. In order to bolster his popularity in areas that typically vote for Democrats, Biden is acting swiftly. The former president’s support for the death penalty for the Central Park Five—a group of minority adolescents wrongfully accused of beating and raping a woman in New York’s Central Park in the 1980s—reminds him of his attempt to accuse Trump of racism in two new ads he released on Thursday. The commercials brought up Trump’s racial conspiracy theory over Obama’s birthplace once again. While highlighting Biden’s support for a criminal bill that increased incarceration rates for Black Americans in the 1990s, the Trump team accused Biden of attempting to “gaslight Black voters” and brought attention to this fact.
It was an unusual visit for a Republican to one of the most Democratic counties in the nation, but the former president made an effort to reach out to Black and Hispanic voters on Thursday during a rally in the Bronx. The ex-president took advantage of the situation to reiterate his campaign platform, which he said was the problem of out-of-control immigration, and how minorities were bearing the brunt of its effects. Trump lamented that the Black and Hispanic communities were bearing the brunt of the immigration crisis, which was causing them to “lose everything they can lose” due to a lack of employment opportunities and housing.
Before Trump’s event, Biden visited Morehouse College in Georgia, which is Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s alma mater. During his visit, Biden warned that “old ghosts in new garments seize power, extremists come for the freedoms you thought belonged to you and everyone” and implicitly attacked Trump and his right-wing supporters.
Biden is susceptible to a number of threats
The wrath of young and progressive voters over Biden’s backing of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the midst of Israel’s war in Gaza, which has killed tens of thousands of civilians, was another weakness that Biden attempted to hide in his Moorehouse speech as the campaign drew to a close. As Biden stated, “This is one of the hardest, most complicated problems in the world.” He continued by saying that he was working nonstop for a Palestinian state and a truce. There is no simple way to do it. A lot of people, including my family, find it frustrating and upsetting. I know it hurts your feelings the most, though. It annoys me too.
But Thursday’s explosion of another demonstration similar to others that have shook college campuses throughout the nation served as a reminder to the president of the blowback against America’s Israel policy. A mostly nonviolent demonstration took place in Los Angeles as demonstrators yelled out “divest now!” and called on UCLA to cut ties with any investments associated with Israel. Protests on a grand scale could resume in the days leading up to the election or during the August Democratic National Convention in Chicago. This would strengthen Trump’s position that Biden is allowing law and order to spiral out of control, and it would cast doubt on Trump’s ability to garner support from younger, more progressive voters. The battle in Gaza has to end by summertime, which is when Biden needs it to, but Netanyahu shows no signs of listening to him when he asks for a reduction in the conflict’s intensity.
The president has long projected that the Federal Reserve would decrease interest rates, so he will be crossing his fingers that this summer brings some relief to Americans who are sick of paying exorbitant prices for housing, gas, and groceries. Despite strong growth and low unemployment, Biden’s image for economic management has taken a hit due to the financial crunch, giving Trump an advantage on the subject that determines the outcome of most US elections. Before the COVID-19 pandemic brought the economy crashing down, the former president had been building an idealistic picture of the economy during his presidency.
Trump lamented the expense increases while speaking in the Bronx. For the ex-real estate magnate, “bacon is too expensive,” so he stopped eating it.
Last month, inflation was 3.4% year on year, significantly lower than the 40-year highs seen following the epidemic. However, many Americans still haven’t felt the effects in their pockets, which gives Trump an edge on the age-old question of whether or not they’re better off now compared to four years ago.
