As Congress faces tense battles over immigration, impeachment, and government financing, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is presiding over one of the lowest majorities in House history.
A new vacancy has shifted the razor-thin majority in the House once again.
With the departure of Democratic Representative Brian Higgins of New York last week, Republicans now have 219 seats in the House and Democrats 212. Assuming all members are present and voting, House Republicans can afford to lose just three votes to approve legislation, according to a split of 219 to 212.
The House of Representatives is presently down to four members. Former Republican Representative Bill Johnson of Ohio resigned this month, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy resigned at the end of last year, and former Republican Representative George Santos of New York was expelled last year; these events follow Higgins’ resignation.
Once again, the political composition will change shortly. On February 13, there will be a special election to fill Santos’s seat. Democrats may be able to pick up some ground in this contest, which is shaping out to be quite competitive.
Not only is the margin narrow, but absenteeism could significantly affect the vote total.
The office of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise announced that as he recovers from a stem cell transplant, he will work remotely until his return to Washington in February.
Kentucky Republican Hal Rogers was hospitalised following a vehicle accident last month. His progress to physical rehabilitation to aid in his recuperation was later confirmed by his office.
As he juggles the demands of rival factions within his party, Johnson faces an immense challenge from the razor-thin majority, which leaves him with little space for mistake.
Conservatives on the right have proven time and again that they can use their slim majority to their advantage, most notably in the historic vote that removed McCarthy as speaker last year.
Issue by issue determines the precise extent of the House Republican Conference’s far right wing. A group of about twelve conservatives rebelled on the House floor last month, blocking a procedural vote to demonstrate their disapproval of a budget agreement that Johnson had negotiated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
Since his right wing has been tanking rule votes on the floor in protest, Johnson has been obliged to suspend the rules and put some items directly to the floor due to the ever-shrinking margin.
However, this approach necessitates a two-thirds majority in order to approve legislation, which means that substantial Democratic backing is necessary, and it further isolates Johnson and the conservative members of his conference.
Johnson has a double whammy: conservative pressure and the interests of moderate members from swing districts who are leading the majority and will be under fire this election season.
After Santos’s expulsion, the number of Republicans in House districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020 dropped from 18 to 17. If the Republicans want to keep their majority, it will depend on what happens to these politically vulnerable lawmakers.