President Joe Biden last year promised to stick by Israel through the bad days and the good ones that would follow after quickly comforting the country in its grief after the greatest massacre on Jews since the Holocaust.
The domestic and foreign political ramifications of his pledge were unknown at the moment. The subsequent conflict has put the alliance through its paces while simultaneously demonstrating the crucial role of the United States in ensuring Israel’s survival. It has also brought to light and deepened some of the most significant political differences in the United States, only a month before Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump are set to face off in an already contentious race.
With 1,200 casualties, the terror strikes carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023, not only upset the Middle Eastern geopolitical balance, but also prompted Israel to engage Hezbollah and Hamas, while exchanging fire with Iran, the group’s patron and archenemy. Similar to the 2001 September 11 attacks, the Hamas terror triggered a domino effect that impacted innumerable lives and caused political upheavals in distant lands.
On two separate occasions, the US and its allies launched extraordinary military operations to shield Israel from Iran’s missile and drone attacks. In the aftermath of October 7, the US has also struck Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen multiple times; these rebels attacked foreign shipping in the Red Sea. Three US service members were tragically killed in an attack on a base in Jordan in January, adding to the fears in Washington of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East and highlighting the vulnerability of US forces in the region.
Domestically, the poisonous politics of a year leading up to a presidential election have occurred at the same time as the aftermath of the Hamas assaults. In the months leading up to the election, Biden backed Harris and dropped his reelection campaign, highlighting the schisms within the Democratic Party that had been exposed by the campus protests. Recent developments in the Middle East have touched off new waves of political repercussions in the re-energized battle between Trump and Harris. Meanwhile, many Jews are concerned about their safety in America due to a disturbing surge of antisemitism.
An enormous obstacle for American foreign policy
Tens of thousands of innocent people have been slaughtered in Israel’s assault on Hamas in Gaza, and the United States may have given up on a two-state solution altogether. Concurrent with the US-led global system’s disintegration in the face of threats from Russia and a growing China, it has escalated into the most significant foreign crisis of the Biden administration.
After over fifty years of hostility following the Islamic revolution, Israel’s decision to escalate its fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon has the potential to draw in Washington and ignite a direct confrontation with Iran.
Despite Biden’s long history of supporting Israel, the most right-wing Israeli administration in history was able to grow increasingly suspicious of him and their policies. On multiple occasions, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defied US president Trump’s efforts to reduce the civilian casualties in the Gaza conflict and ignored US priorities whenever Israeli and US interests clashed. Because of this, the Biden administration’s foreign policy goals are in jeopardy, and its authority on the global arena has been severely diminished.
There has been minimal success in releasing hostages in Gaza despite months of US shuttle diplomacy involving high officials such as CIA Director William Burns, Secretary Antony Blinken, and others. Even more far off than before is an agreement that could lead to a truce with Hamas. It seemed like the US desired an agreement more than Netanyahu or Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, who added to the war’s devastation by embedding his fighters in civilian areas.
Netanyahu’s refusal to back down from his intervention in US internal politics, which appears to be in favor of Republicans aligned with Trump, has also harmed Biden’s personal credibility.
A few weeks following the events of October 7, it appeared as though Netanyahu was destined for political extinction. The worst day in Israel’s history had shattered his reputation as the country’s ultimate defender. However, it is now nearly guaranteed that he will outlive Biden, who departs office in January, due to his relentless perseverance. A statesman who thought of himself as an expert in international policy will have his reputation marred by the expanding war that he will leave to Trump or Harris.
Significant political fallout at home
Disparities in American politics and society have been exposed and deepened by the terror actions by Hamas and Israel’s reaction to them.
For many decades, Washington has played a mediation role in the peace process in the Middle East. But after October 7, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has grown into a dangerous domestic political issue.
The horrific footage of Israeli attacks on Hamas in Gaza and the subsequent left-wing anti-Israel outcry put Biden and Harris in a precarious political position. The footage also showed the deaths of Palestinian youngsters and civilians.
Democrats were deeply divided over Israel and the Biden administration’s inability to control Netanyahu, which infuriated progressives. Harris’ chances of becoming president could be ruined if thousands of Arab American voters and others who refused to back Biden in the primaries decide to sit this one out or vote third party, particularly in a pivotal swing state like Michigan. Pro-Palestinian demonstrators chanting “Genocide Joe” pelted Joe with insults and chants whilst he was still a presidential candidate, calling attention to his inaction in protecting Palestinian civilians.
Now Harris has to pull off the same deceitful juggling act that Biden failed miserably at for so long. She has a political obligation to support Israel and US foreign policy goals, and she should try to calm the Democratic Party down about the conflict. Meeting with Arab American leaders in Michigan last week was a clear indication that Harris is still very worried about the political backlash.
Close relationship between Trump and Netanyahu
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been an integral part of American politics since the Clinton administration of the 1990s. However, in the past year, he has taken his cunning interventions to a new level, all in an effort to maintain his dominance. He has discovered a shared interest with Republicans who, in the run-up to the election, wanted to hurt Joe Biden by bringing up the war. While on a tour that was mostly GOP-initiated and which many Democrats found quite irritating, he addressed the US Congress in July.
If Trump is re-elected, Netanyahu seems to be putting his money on it. While in office, the former president mostly went along with the aggressive policies of the Israeli leader; now, he’s using the conflict that broke out after October 7 to bolster his claim that the Democrats are responsible for the world’s precipitous descent into World War III.
American Jews are deeply affected by antisemitism.
Beyond their influence on the presidential election, the October 7 attacks had far-reaching consequences for the United States. American Jews were likewise deeply affected by them.
Attacks on kibbutzim and a music festival by terrorists from Hamas, who exploded out of Gaza, cast doubt on the idea that Israel is a refuge for the worldwide Jewish diaspora. The antisemitism that has been sparked by both the attacks by Hamas and some of the demonstrations in response to Israel’s actions has made many American Jews feel frightened in their own homes. There was a surge of antisemitism among pro-Palestinian protesters on US college campuses on occasion.
Consequences that will grow in the coming year
Then what?
One of the most dangerous problems that a modern president has ever faced will be passed on to the next president.
After being hesitant to express her opinions outside of Biden’s framework, Harris will have to formulate her own war policy if she is elected. Given the low likelihood of a resolution to the expanding conflict in the near future, she is likely to encounter similar challenges to her authority and the complexities of a conflict between US and Israeli interests that have plagued Biden.
Even though Trump is generally believed to be willing to give Netanyahu the green light, his opposition to US engagement in international conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, could make him less receptive to escalating the situation once he is in office, especially if it would affect his own political career.
After October 7, 2023, the United States will continue to be heavily involved in the new Middle Eastern realities, regardless of what happens next month.