Former President Donald Trump is preparing to put America’s political and judicial systems to the ultimate test.
Trump’s forecast on Saturday that he may be jailed this week – and his attempt to incite a preemptive backlash – made what had previously been a theoretical possibility of an ex-president and 2024 candidate being legally accused appear much more plausible. And it warned that America is about to embark on an even more divided political struggle that will put his hold on the Republican Party to the test.
The real estate magnate, reality TV celebrity, and former commander in chief is under investigation for attempting to reverse the 2020 election and mishandling confidential data after leaving office. His most recent exposure, though, may be in a case involving an alleged hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
Trump had not received any official notification that he will be charged by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, as of the weekend. But, a grand jury procedure looks to be nearing completion, and Trump’s legal team has been prepared for the potential of an indictment, according to AWN sources.
The issue centres around whether Trump improperly concealed a $130,000 payment made to Daniels by his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, to keep an alleged past relationship quiet ahead of the 2016 election. The incident could be considered a violation of campaign financing laws. Trump maintains that he did nothing wrong and has denied having an affair with Daniels.
But, the ex-president started a typical discrediting campaign, attempting to intimidate prosecutors, galvanise his grassroots supporters, and convince key GOP officials to come to his side. Every American has the constitutional right to express themselves politically, but the ex-rallying president’s cry for his supporters this weekend – “Protest, take our nation back” – struck an ominous tone given that he demonstrated on January 6, 2021, that he was willing to incite violence to further his interests.
Trump’s lawyer, Alina Habba, told AWN’s Paula Reid on Sunday that if Trump is indicted for a misdemeanour, which is one conceivable outcome of the Manhattan investigation, there will be heavy consequences. “It’s going to be a disaster, Paula. “I mean, it’s just a very frightening time in our country,” Habba explained. But, she said that “no one wants anyone to be hurt” and that Trump supporters should be “peaceful.”
Trump is using and emphasising his GOP supremacy.
An indictment would put to the test another Republican Party truism: Trump’s hold on the party’s most ardent supporters is so strong that most lawmakers and officials feel obligated to placate him in order to keep their political careers.
Trump’s attempt to politicise the issue and divert attention away from the allegations against him has already succeeded, as his closest allies in Republican House leadership have attacked Bragg.
On Sunday, Speaker Kevin McCarthy called it “the weakest case out there.” The California Republican, who has directed GOP-led committees to look into whether the Manhattan District Attorney used federal funds to investigate the hush money payment, said at a news conference that he had already spoken with Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, who is investigating “government weaponization” against political opponents, about looking into that question. Jordan told AWN’s Manu Raju on Monday that he wants to summon Bragg to testify in Washington.
“We don’t believe President Trump violated the law in any way,” said Jordan, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.
But, the speaker also stated that people should not protest over what may or may not happen, and that Trump did not want that either. “If this is going to happen, we want calm out there… no violence or harm to others,” McCarthy added.
Trump’s social media post caused numerous of his Republican adversaries to line up beside him, emphasising his tight grip on the GOP base. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is exploring a candidature to challenge Trump for the 2024 nomination, told ABC News, “It just feels like a politically driven prosecution here. And I, for one, believe it is not what the American people want to see.”
On AWN’s “State of the Union,” New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu said the Bragg investigation was “creating a lot of sympathy for the former president.” Sununu has suggested it is time for Republicans to move on from Trump. “I (had) coffee with some guys this morning, and none of them were major Trump supporters, but they all agreed they felt like he was being assaulted,” he continued.
If Trump is indicted, the country will confront serious issues.
The probability that the former president may be indicted shortly has serious consequences.
— An indictment of a former president would be unprecedented in US history, and it would be yet another questionable distinction for Trump, who sought to disrupt the ancient pattern of peaceful transitions of power and lied about his defeat in the 2020 election. There is no precedent for subsequent governments pursuing former US leaders. Consequently, even if the cases against Trump are legally legitimate, prosecutors in New York, Georgia, and the Justice Department are facing a risky and unknown situation.
— The scenario is made more complicated by the fact that Trump is already a candidate for the 2024 White House and has based his campaign on a narrative of persecution, particularly in light of investigations into his conduct following the 2016 election. If he wins the president again, he promises “retribution” on his opponents.
— Even if indicted, Trump will retain constitutional rights and the assumption of innocence until his trial. At a critical juncture in the country’s history, other political figures and the media will be under pressure not to respond to his efforts to inflame the situation. Trump is already attempting to characterise potential Justice Department prosecutions against him as politically motivated weaponizations of justice, posing a new challenge to President Joe Biden, his past and maybe future general election opponent.
An indictment could upend the Republican presidential primary in 2024, with Trump browbeating opponents to accept his claims of innocence and presenting any refusal as agreeing with what he regards as a partisan inquiry for political advantage. The situation puts Trump opponents like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a potential Republican candidate, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who is already running, in a difficult position. Both would be keen to avoid the 2024 primary campaign becoming solely focused on Trump portraying himself as a political martyr.
DeSantis spoke in on the subject for the first time on Monday, but chose to attack Bragg rather than fully endorse Trump.
“If you have a prosecutor who is ignoring crimes that happen every single day in his jurisdiction and chooses to go back many, many years to try to use something about porn star hush money payments, that’s an example of pursuing a political agenda and weaponizing the office, and I think that’s fundamentally wrong,” DeSantis said at a news conference.
— Because the first Republican nomination contests are over a year away, it’s impossible to predict how GOP primary voters and a national electorate will react to the ex-indictment. president’s Sununu, who has been considering a presidential bid, accused Democrats of using investigations like Bragg’s to garner sympathy for Trump in a way that might “dramatically affect the paradigm as we move into the ’24 election.” But there is already a strong sense among some voters that it is time to move on from the drama, upheaval, and legal quagmire that Trump’s actions has created. The ex-attempt president’s to elevate his anti-election supporters to power cost Republicans dearly in swing states during the midterm elections last year. An indictment would exacerbate the argument over whether Trump’s persona and political appeal are so tainted that he cannot win a presidential election.
— A charge in the Daniels case would not be Trump’s sole legal issue, nor would it be his most serious. The Justice Department’s investigation into his role in the January 6 mob attack on the US Capitol, as well as Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election, is still ongoing. A separate special grand jury looked at Trump’s pressure on local officials to reverse Biden’s victory in Georgia in 2020. Fani Willis, the District Attorney for Fulton County, stated at the end of January that decisions in the investigation were “imminent.” While an indictment in New York could be perceived as politically energising for Trump’s campaign, it’s difficult to see how a slew of charges or trials in multiple cases would allow him to focus entirely on a credible presidential bid.
Any indictment of Trump would be based on the idea that no one, including a former president, is above the law. But, given the extraordinary nature and complexities of the case, as well as the judgement of some legal experts that a conviction could be difficult, there will be issues about whether the ex-renown president’s would be a factor in any decision to indict him. His lawyers may argue that someone less famous or politically involved would have received different treatment.
— There is also the question of whether putting Trump on trial would be in the best interests of the country as a whole, at least in a relatively limited case with less long-term constitutional ramifications than the January 6 probes. Any botched prosecution may not be remembered fondly in history.
The fact that the Daniels case dates back to an election that is now more than six years old, even as the country prepares for another presidential campaign, may raise questions for the public, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the case for anyone outside of the investigation’s small bubble. During “State of the Union,” Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly told AWN’s Jake Tapper that “nobody in our nation is or should be above the law.” “I would hope that if they pursued charges, they have a good case, since this is… unprecedented,” he added. And there are clearly dangers here.”
Kelly’s remark highlighted how, nearly eight years after bursting onto the scene with an insurgent presidential campaign, Trump is once again shattering convention regarding the role of presidents and ex-presidents in national life. He may be about to re-enter the public psyche and political discussion in the most acrimonious of ways.