It is astonishing how well Democrats continue to do in special elections. In crucial battleground states, the party’s most susceptible Senate incumbents are leading their opponents. The message of reproductive rights, which is one of the Democratic Party’s hallmark themes, has been effective time and time again.
Still, Joe Biden is having a hard time catching up to Trump.
It’s concerning that the president isn’t benefiting from the party’s victory on the lower ballots, especially while other Democrats are doing well. Although he needs victories in numerous states to retain the presidency, Biden lags behind Trump in many of them. He is floundering in his work approval. Also, the coalition of voters who helped put him in office four years ago is starting to show signs of strain.
The disparity between the president’s and other Democrats’ political fortunes has become very evident to party officials, revealing just how isolated Biden is from the party’s issues. According to interviews with Democratic lawmakers, strategists, and former party officials from both the national and state levels, Democrats are starting to admit that Joe Biden’s personal weaknesses, such as his youth, inconsistent messaging, and poor support from the youth of the country, are the root of the president’s political problems.
“Democrats are enthusiastic about trying to win the Senate and trying to win the House,” stated Neil Oxman, a Democratic strategist headquartered in Pennsylvania.
Additionally, they are “not enthusiastic about Biden’s reelection,” according to Oxman. In other words, “forever.”
This rift between Biden and his party has happened before. Trump and President Obama were defeated in their reelection campaigns by candidates from the lower ballots in the previous two presidential elections.
However, there is a noticeable gulf between Biden and other Democrats in the polls. As of this writing, Gallup reports that the president’s unpopularity ranks higher than it did when Trump and Obama were in the same fourth year of their respective presidency. Some of the most important members of his 2020 coalition, including as young people and Black voters, have abandoned him. Two of the most important topics in this election, immigration and the economy, are in Republican hands.
“The environments we’re experiencing at and near the top of the ticket are not reflective of the successes we’re having locally and in specials,” stated Steve Israel, a former representative and chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Why are we doing so well in local and state elections, but we still have this very tight polling at the presidential?”—this is the fundamental dilemma the Democrats are currently facing.
Democratic down-ballot advances and strong showing in the midterms “have proven that Democrats have a winning message,” according to a Biden campaign statement; but, the statement also acknowledged that many Americans are still not paying attention to the presidential contest.
To reach the voters who will decide the election but aren’t paying attention yet would need extensive time and effort, according to Mia Ehrenberg, a spokesman for the Biden campaign, who talked to POLITICO. It will require discipline, persistence, and long-term effort, all of which the Biden-Harris campaign is exhibiting.
An anonymous Democratic campaign official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, made the following claim: “Political polarization “has a far more extreme impact on national candidates and their polling” compared to state and federal races, and therefore it is “apples to oranges” to compare the two types of polls.
Democratic Representative Tom Suozzi, who won a special election in New York’s 3rd District earlier this year in part on the strength of Biden’s rhetoric on immigration, said that the president is failing to adequately describe the achievements of his administration in other areas, even though Biden’s policies are popular in some.
After taking the unprecedented action of limiting asylum at the southern border during election year, Biden is finally “starting to” come around on immigration, according to Suozzi. Additionally, this week the president extended safeguards from deportation to spouses of U.S. citizens.
However, according to Suozzi’s interview, down-ballot Democrats can assist Biden in reaching out to younger voters who are passionate about the climate issue. Biden should also do more to promote his climate program.
After forty years of indifference, we finally enacted the most significant climate change legislation in U.S. history; the president took the lead on this, but no one knows about it. According to Suozzi, who spoke to POLITICO, former President Trump has offered oil corporations, “Help me raise a billion dollars and I’ll roll back all this stuff “. “I mean, I believe we could close that enthusiasm gap if the youth were aware of that.”
The bizarre special election in Suozzi, which was previously held by the scandal-plagued Republican George Santos, gained widespread media interest on a national scale. While immigration is typically a sensitive topic for Democrats, Suozzi’s ability to run a campaign emphasizing this issue gave them confidence.