Abortion access, indictments swirling around a key contender, and the idea of electing — or reelecting — an octogenarian to the White House are all likely to play a role in the 2024 campaign.
But no one expected Covid to win in 2020, which completely changed the election cycle. Nobody predicted Donald Trump in 2015. Nobody predicted the 2008 banking catastrophe. So, what are we overlooking this time?
We asked a panel of prominent political strategists, elected officials, and operatives assembled at the University of Chicago in recent days for a campaign journalism conference to tell us about an under-the-radar topic they believe would play a disproportionate role in the 2024 campaign:
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), former senator and current director of the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics:
“I believe that education is the one issue that has the potential to cut many different ways.” Education, in my opinion, is underrated. Parents’ participation was a significant issue in Virginia, yet none of these folks want people to ban books. So it will be what these conservative state lawmakers do with the support of Washington politicians who spread those ideas.
“It won’t just be parental involvement.” It will be transgender issues. It will be the issue of book banning.”
Tresa Undem, a progressive pollster whose clients have included Planned Parenthood, Sierra Club, and Time’s Up:
“Any issue that relates in some way to race or gender is going to be a big deal,” especially when it comes to border issues or criminality. “When you look at what’s going on at the border, it’s more about race than it is about security.” When you ask white voters how they feel about safety, it nearly usually has nothing to do with safety. It comes down to whether or not they support Black Lives Matter.”
Former Barack Obama aide David Axelrod:
“I’m not sure if this is flying under the radar, but it’s changing.” I believe the health of the economy, whether or not we experience a recession in 2024, will be a major impact.
“The difficulty with presidential politics is that we had no idea when we started in January of 2007 that by September of 2008, the country would be hurtling into a mortgage crisis and the economy would collapse.” There are legitimate concerns because we are due for a recession, and if it occurs at the wrong moment, it may be disastrous for the incumbent.”
Senior adviser to Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign, Lis Smith:
“None of us were thinking about a global pandemic at this time [ahead of the 2020 election], so I think it’s probably something we have no idea about.”
Marc Elias, a voting rights lawyer who also worked on Hillary Clinton’s campaign:
“States lacking the resources and personnel to conduct elections.” We’re seeing decent folks driven out of the election administration process all throughout the country. You can’t open polling places or send absentee votes if you don’t have enough people to handle elections. As a result, I am concerned that a target on election officials and enough election funding may have a negative impact on the election machinery.”
Brad Raffensperger, Republican Secretary of State of Georgia:
“World events and geopolitical issues.”
Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart and a Democratic political strategist:
“There are some issues that Republicans will try to highlight.” They thought they could utilise the script that they used well in 2021, particularly in Virginia — freedom, family, and school choice — in 2022, but Dobbs wiped it out. Republicans are working hard to get it back on the agenda. We’ll have to wait and see how successful they are. It’s the same old ‘wokeism.’…
“Ukraine could also rise, but I doubt it because there is still a majority in the Republican Party that supports what the president is doing there.” So that’s one to keep an eye on.”
Election Official Legal Defence Network’s Benjamin Gibson
“Depending on the outcome, both sides attack the credibility of the election, which has long-term really negative consequences for the country.”
Brenda Gianiny, a Republican pollster and the founder of Axis Research
“I don’t believe we know yet.” I don’t think we’re going to see it.”
