Democrats have been rather tight-lipped about considering a vice presidential candidate thus far. Their hand may have been pushed, nevertheless, by the report of special counsel Robert Hur.
At issue here is whether or whether Hur’s scathing description of President Joe Biden as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” and “diminished faculties” is fair. The fact that Biden consistently lags behind former president Donald Trump in polling matchups in swing states, along with the general belief that he is too old to serve another term, has cast doubt on Biden’s ability to lead the party in November and the necessity of Democrats having a backup plan.
It would be difficult to just replace him due to political and procedural obstacles. Keeping Biden on the ticket is the most likely result. But other possibilities exist, such as the party actually nominating a candidate other than Biden at the August convention or even selecting a candidate thereafter to run in a historic general election.
The process would look like this.
choices made by Biden
The reality is that a contingency plan can only be put into action in the event that Biden willingly withdraws or becomes physically unable to accept the nomination. There is currently no doubt: Biden is coasting towards the Democratic candidature, despite the party’s uneasiness. Despite months of warning about the dangers of choosing Biden, his longshot opponent, Rep. Dean Phillips, has failed to garner any support. The Democrat from Minnesota has faced severe party exclusion since bringing up the delicate topic.
Although just approximately 3% of the total delegates have been distributed thus far, a late-entering white knight candidate is currently out of the question. The reason behind this is that, by the end of this month, all states except Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and South Dakota will have passed their primary ballot access filing deadlines. A candidate’s delegate haul would still be dwarfed by Biden’s, even if they were to secure ballot access in all those states and win every delegate available in them. March 5, Super Tuesday, in California will probably see more delegates for Biden than all six of those states plus DC put together.
One workable backup plan exists, and that is in the event of incapacitation or an extremely improbable convention floor mutiny by delegates who have already committed their allegiance to Biden and the president. The fact that Biden has publicly committed to passing the torch is significant. It will be difficult to convince this proud man that his position is becoming untenable and that he ought to step down, as his ego has been sculpted by his experience of gaining election to the Senate in his twenties and then being refused the president multiple times before finally obtaining it.
But he can depart honourably and according to his own conditions if he follows a certain road. First, we must let the Democratic primary campaign to conclude on June 4, the date on which the primaries of the remaining group of states are held. With more than 1,968 pledged delegates, Biden would emerge as the clear winner and secure the nomination.
After Biden announced he was declining the candidature, he would free his delegates to support an other candidate. He can try to downplay the public’s fears about having a president who will be 86 years old at the end of his second term by claiming he is physically and mentally capable of serving another term. He may remind people that he has repeatedly claimed to be a stepping stone to other Democratic leaders. He might point out that the economy is doing well and say that he successfully fought Trump and preserved American democracy. The man fulfilled his responsibility.
When it happens, the race to be the next leader would start. In the wake of Biden’s statement, a flurry of private polls comparing potential general election contenders to prove that they could depose Trump appeared out of nowhere. In a political showdown not witnessed in decades, prominent Democrats will vie for position to succeed Biden from June 4 until the party convention in Chicago opens on August 19.
Fight at the conference
Even as the convention approached, Biden would maintain his position as kingmaker. If the other primaries followed the same pattern as Nevada and South Carolina, Biden would have a clear majority of delegates at the convention. They aren’t obligated to supporting the president or anyone he could endorse to run against him, but the Biden campaign would have checked them out, and many would have followed his lead if he preferred one candidate over another.
Kamala Harris, the Vice President, will be the most problematic issue. Even when Biden isn’t there, his delegates won’t always flock to Hillary. Nobody is confident in her after seeing her 2020 primaries performance and low approval ratings. The danger of losing Black voters’ support, however, will be well-known to the party.
The other top prospects have been preparing for this moment for quite some time, creating national brands and enhancing their reputations as exceptional team players. Among the most active surrogates have been blue-state governors, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Gavin Newsom of California; this will help them win over convention delegates. In her roles as co-chair of Biden’s campaign in Michigan and as a strong advocate for him among Arab Americans, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has been an ardent supporter of Joe Biden.
Even the usually staid Democratic convention would be a dramatic mess. Party leaders and elected officials, both present and former, would be eligible to vote on a possible second ballot at the convention, even though Democrats reduced the authority of their so-called “superdelegates” after 2016. That would give them a lot of power in a floor struggle to choose a nominee, but it may bring up the 2016 scandal where party leaders were accused of trying to stop Bernie Sanders from getting the nomination.
Attempts would be made by every wing of the party to use this unprecedented scenario to their benefit. Not only may there be a large field of candidates from the Democratic Party in 2020, but there might also be others who realise that the candidature may not be available again until 2032.
Following that, a fresh Democratic contender would be named.
In the aftermath of the convention
On the other hand, what if Biden overcame his reservations, received the nomination in late August, and then failed to run a strong campaign in November? As per the rules of the convention, if the nominee were to pass away, resign, or become disabled, the party chair, Jaime Harrison, would “shall confer with the Democratic leadership of the… Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and shall report” to the approximately 450 members of the Democratic National Committee, who would then select a replacement. If they promoted Harris to the ticket’s top spot, they would also choose a new running partner.