When Donald Trump tapped JD Vance, the US senator and never-Trumper turned Maga superstar, as his vice-presidential pick, the Rust belt populist was in for a rude awakening.
In a viral video, the Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz called Vance and the Maga movement “just weird”, an insult that quickly became a meme. The reintroduction of his past remarks on the impropriety of “childless cat ladies” being involved in government spread almost as fast as an online joke about the Ohioan having intimate relations with a couch.
Other viral videos of Vance struggling to make small talk and awkwardly laughing at himself during campaign events seemed to give the impression of an unserious candidate. The Hillbilly Elegy author and former Silicon Valley investor appeared to lack the charisma of his running mate, and for much of the summer, pundits wondered whether Trump regretted his pick.
But Vance has powered through, holding swing state rallies, stumping at fundraisers and appearing frequently in combative interviews on popular – and not always friendly – TV news shows.
On the campaign trail, Vance thrives in elevating Trump’s most combative campaign tactics, in particular, demonizing immigrants, discrediting the press and effectively riling up the crowd on both topics.
“Journalism in this country is increasingly a disgrace,” said Vance, complaining during a 23 September campaign stop in North Carolina about reporters investigating his claims that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, had stolen and eaten residents’ family pets. In Traverse City, Michigan, two days later, he called for the deportation of “millions of illegal aliens”, blaming Kamala Harris for letting them into the country.
To many Trump supporters, the Ohio senator’s hardcore nativist message and populist record make him an effective messenger for the campaign’s biggest issues: immigration and the economy. Just how effective he is with a wider audience will be put to the test during the vice-presidential debate on Tuesday.
No stranger to hyperbolic anti-immigrant speech, Vance, who during his 2022 Senate campaign floated the “great replacement” conspiracy theory that Democrats facilitate immigration to increase their election margins, escalated the GOP rhetoric in mid-September.
It started when unfounded claims that members of the Haitian immigrant community in Springfield, Ohio, had killed and eaten the pets of local residents circulated on rightwing social media accounts, gaining traction among the neo-Nazi group Blood Tribe, according to NPR. Officials from the local Republican party took up the allegations, and on September 10th, JD Vance posted on X to bring them into the mainstream: Some individuals who shouldn’t be here have reportedly kidnapped and devoured people’s pets. Where is our border czar?”
During the presidential debate that night, Trump himself echoed the claims in a now-infamous rant. The condemnation came swiftly, but Vance doubled down – even apparently justifying the practice of lying to make a point.
“If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m gonna do,” said Vance, when pressed by Dana Bash about his claims during a CNN interview on 15 September.
That week, Springfield officials responded to repeated bomb threats against public buildings in the area, including ones that invoked anti-immigrant speech. On 16 September, the local schools were forced to evacuate amid the violent threats, and the Ohio governor, Mike DeWine, a Republican who has himself disputed the claims about Haitian Springfield residents, announced that he was sending highway patrol officers as reinforcement security in the schools.
It didn’t seem to matter how many times local officials in Springfield disputed the claims, or how many journalists traveled to Springfield to investigate – and debunk – the racist rumors. During a series of campaign events, Vance defended himself, proving his willingness to power through controversy and apparent disregard for the consequences of his rhetoric.
In Wisconsin on 17 September, Vance waved away a question about his apparent tendency to “create stories”, saying that he meant he wanted to “create stories” in the sense of making news, and not to create stories as in, making stuff up. It was the media’s fault, not his, for misunderstanding him.
During a Q&A session with the press in front of the crowd, a reporter asked Vance: “You say you have a responsibility to share what your constituents tell you, but do you also have a responsibility to factcheck them first?” Vance pounced.
“Well, I think the media has a responsibility to factcheck the residents!” Vance said, drawing a cheer of approval from the hundreds who had turned out to hear him speak. He also seemed to reject journalists’ attempts to factcheck him, saying reporters who travelled to Ohio to investigate alleged reports about Haitian immigrants were “not seeking the truth” but rather “bullying”.
Mac Stipanovich, a retired Republican party operative from Florida, was upset by Vance’s comments about Haitian Ohio residents – and questioned the strategic value of openly bashing immigrants.
“I thought originally that his goal was to win the general election, and that he was going to be a next generation person who didn’t have all of Trump’s baggage, who might appeal to a broader audience and help the campaign in the general election. As it’s turned out, he is just campaigning to win a national Republican primary. In many ways, he’s more Trump than Trump.” said Stipanovic.
A Democratic representative in a key battleground Senate race in Michigan told supporters she was concerned about Kamala Harris’s chances in the state’s presidential election.
“I’m not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan,” Elissa Slotkin said at a fundraiser earlier this month, according to Axios. “We have her underwater in our polling.”
Slotkin did not offer more details on specifics of the data to which she was referring, Axios reported. Without seeing the actual poll, it is difficult to assess its credibility. Candidates will sometimes use internal polls to motivate supporters and urge them not to get complacent.
Mail-in ballots started being sent to Michigan voters on Thursday.
Donald Trump gave a speech and held a town hall in Michigan on Friday. Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, also made an appearance at a football game between the University of Michigan and University of Minnesota on Saturday.
Walz and Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, areset to square off on Wednesday in the only vice-presidential debate, another milestone moment in the race.
The FiveThirtyEight average of polls shows a very close race in Michigan, with Harris having a narrow lead. Winning Michigan, a state Joe Biden won in 2020 on his way to capturing the White House after Trump carried it in 2016, is key to Harris’s hopes of becoming president.
The simplest path for Harris to win the election and deny Trump a second presidency is to carry the Rust belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Losing any one of them would complicate her path to winning the electoral college.
Polls also show Slotkin with a wider lead over her opponent, former representative Mike Rogers. Holding on to the seat is a critical part of any chance Democrats have to keep control of the US Senate. The Cook Political Report has rated the race to fill the seat of Debbie Stabenow, a Democratic senator, as a highly competitive toss-up.
Slotkin’s comments come as the polls show an extremely narrow race in key battleground states as the presidential campaign enters its final weeks.
Harris holds a 1.9-point lead in 538’s average of the polls in Michigan and has a similar advantage in Wisconsin. She holds a one-point advantage in 538’s average of Pennsylvania polls.
Polls also show an extremely tight race in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.