Could Kamala Harris’s meteoric rise be starting to fade?
That’s the question posed by the New York Times/Siena College survey that was released this morning. The poll found that among potential voters nationwide, Donald J. Trump had a slight lead of 48% to 47%.
The outcome is somewhat unexpected, in my opinion. This is Mr. Trump’s first lead in a large, nonpartisan national survey in about 30 days. Since there is minimal evidence of validation from other surveys, it is prudent to approach these results with some degree of caution.
Having said that, it’s easy to see why Vice President Harris’s backing may have waned in the past few weeks. From July, when President Biden dropped out of the race, to August, when the Democratic convention was held, Hillary was fortunate to have a month of nonstop positive attention in the media. If she was on a political high during the convention, it would be reasonable for her to have gotten off the high during the two weeks that have passed without incident.
Since there haven’t been many good-quality surveys conducted since the convention, when Ms. Harris was riding high, it’s reasonable to assume that the Times/Siena poll will be the first to catch a shift back toward Mr. Trump. Although there were a few online polls this week, no comprehensive survey using interviews carried out after August 28 has been undertaken.
More surveys would be helpful. The fact that polls are invariably closed for Labor Day weekend is one possible explanation. It’s also possible that many pollsters would rather hold off on conducting another survey until Tuesday, following the debate. For whatever reason, the Times/Siena survey presents one of the earliest chances to regain support for Mr. Trump.
The benefits of Trump
The Times/Siena survey may be excessively favorable to Mr. Trump, but it can’t be told for sure. As of the vote tallying, we have no idea if the polls are “right” or not.
Still, he has substantial advantages in this race, according to the survey, and they might be decisive.
His popularity has increased. In general, 46% of those who are inclined to vote say they think highly of the former president. That’s slightly down than our latest national survey, which found 47% in favor, but it’s still higher than his popularity in either 2016 or 2020.
On all counts, he’s ahead of the curve. We put a two-part question to the vote. Can you tell me which subject is most important to you while casting your vote? Another question: which candidate, Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump, do you prefer on that matter? According to that metric, Mr. Trump is ahead of the pack by five points on the subject that people care about the most, whatever that may be.
He stands in the middle. Nearly two-thirds of people feel Mr. Trump’s political leanings are “not too far” left or right, while nearly a third feel he leans “too far to the right.” On the other hand, 41% of voters think Ms. Harris is “not too far either way,” while nearly 50% think she leans too far to the left.
Many people fail to notice this as an advantage of Mr. Trump’s. His denial of the 2020 election result is only one example of how he stands apart from the political mainstream. On several subjects, including immigration, he does have conservative views. However, he has also taken stances that were more often held by Democrats than Republicans ten years ago, such as opposing free trade, supporting a cooperative relationship with Russia, and opposing cuts to entitlement programs. His evasive stance on further measures to limit abortion and his refusal to endorse Project 2025 are all attempts to preserve this reputation, which he takes very seriously.
He represents the nation’s desire for change as its candidate for change. Even while many Democrats felt their spirits raised when President Biden dropped out of the race, the attitude on a national level is still not fantastic. The majority of voters continue to express their belief that the nation is moving in the wrong path and that the economy is dismal. Furthermore, 61% of voters are in favor of a “major change” from Mr. Biden’s administration as the next president, while 34% are in favor of a “minor change” and 3% are against any change at all.
In this election, who stands for change? That has been a contentious issue ever since Ms. Harris entered the campaign, but according to the Times/Siena survey, Mr. Trump is the clear winner.
Ms. Harris was portrayed by 40% of probable voters as “change,” while 55% saw her as “more of the same.” On the other hand, 61% of voters felt that Mr. Trump embodied “change,” while 34% felt the opposite.
There are many political flaws in Mr. Trump’s character. As they always have, the majority of voters see him negatively and call him a “risky choice” for president. The survey clearly identifies abortion, democracy, and Project 2025 as serious problems.
At least Mr. Trump is ahead in this survey. Ms. Harris’s reputation for lacking strengths is a major setback.
Is Harris passing the test?
Ms. Harris appeared to be a contender with many possible flaws when she joined the presidential race. While running for president in 2019, she held a number of controversial views and was also associated with Biden’s immigration policies.
Running as a “generic” Democrat seemed to allow her to sidestep all of these problems back in August. She rarely pointed to the center. She failed to introduce a strong set of policies. On abortion, the middle class, pricing, democracy, and other issues, she largely stuck to standard Democratic rhetoric.
A “generic” Democrat is frequently successful, thus this strategy has clear benefits. But the danger was that the public’s perception of Ms. Harris would be defined in some way, and her campaign was mostly missing the mark in this regard.
There is no mistaking the dangers of this approach in this poll. A month of positive publicity hasn’t been enough to acquaint people with her; 28% of voters felt they needed more information, compared to 9% who felt the same way about Mr. Trump. Voters are most interested in learning her stance on the issues, which her campaign has failed to adequately articulate.
Also, the Trump team seems to have started filling in some of the gaps, according to the poll. Half of the electorate finds her views “too liberal or progressive.” The majority of voters hold her partially or totally accountable for the border issues. Not to mention that most people see her as both “more of the same” and a “risky” choice—not exactly a winning formula.
The Tuesday debate is just the beginning of many more chances for Ms. Harris to introduce herself to voters.