Trump’s detractors like to say that his supporters are in a “cult” because of their obsession with the ex-president. However, our latest AWN/SSRS poll offers a new perspective.
Eighty-nine percent of his 2024 Republican primary voters cited his personal qualities when asked why they supported him above other candidates.
Voters who supported other Republican candidates cited the candidates’ positions on the topics 63% of the time.
Trump supporters are less likely to approve of him as a person than they are to believe he cares about them and stands with them on the major issues, and this mismatch reveals something that has been true for some time. For Trump’s critics, the “cult of personality” is much more significant than anything Trump has really done.
Consider the atmosphere during Trump’s initial candidature for the presidency. From the debate stage, he would savagely criticise both candidates. Florida Senator Marco Rubio even attempted a Trump impression during a debate, but it didn’t help his standing with voters.
That’s because Trump’s temperament and character were a major turnoff during the 2016 primaries. In contrast to the other contenders, only 23% of Republicans in an ABC News/Washington Post survey at the time thought he did the best on this criterion. And yet, in the same poll, Trump led the primary vote test by more than 20 points.
Then, after Trump’s election as president, his tweets in the wee hours of the night were always a mystery.
Fox News found that only 52% of those who viewed Trump favourably immediately after his election thought he used Twitter responsibly. (Meanwhile, 90% of his detractors said he inappropriately used Twitter.)
Take the Wall Street Journal’s most recent poll, conducted following the 2024 Republican primary debate. If the election for 2024 were conducted today, Trump and President Joe Biden would receive an identical number of votes.
But the same poll showed that Trump had a huge problem with people liking him. While 48% of people said they liked Biden, only 31% liked Trump.
The issues were the deciding factor in the close election. Voters gave Trump an 11-point lead when asked who had a solid record of achievement as president, with 51% choosing him to 40% choosing Hillary Clinton. More people (52% vs. 44%) also believed that Trump had a plan for the future.
Trump has been victorious over his rivals on the issue of the economy. A majority of respondents (54%) to an ABC News/Washington Post poll this spring felt that Trump performed a better job than Vice President Joe Biden in managing the economy while Trump was in office.
This exact relationship played a role in Trump’s 2016 victory. On immigration and terrorism (the two questions asked in the ABC/Post survey) Trump led his GOP competitors by 30–40 points during the 2016 primary season. When asked who made a good leader, he also led by a wide margin.
The same can’t be said for Trump’s critics, at least to some extent. There will be those who disagree with him on the standard liberal/conservative topics, that much is certain. In most cases, though, people don’t like Trump because of his character flaws or ethical concerns.
In the ABC News/Washington Post poll from last month, only 34% of Americans believed Trump was too conservative when he was on the verge of losing reelection in 2020. Four in ten respondents thought his perspective was about average.
In a more recent AP/NORC poll from August, only 2% of Americans said “Republican/conservative” is the first word that comes to mind when they think of Trump. Less than one percent use terms like “dictator” or “fascist” to describe him.
In the AP/NORC poll, respondents who had negative impressions of Trump were more likely to describe him as corrupt, a liar, a bully, etc.
My main argument is that many people will automatically rule out Trump becoming president because of his character flaws. That doesn’t make him any more acceptable to his followers. A negative consequence for his supporters.
Many others prefer to ignore it because they are confident that Trump will deliver on their hopes and dreams.
