On Tuesday, House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy will need to secure the backing required to succeed John Boehner as speaker in a vote that might devolve into a disorderly and contentious once-in-a-century floor struggle.
When the 118th Congress convenes to elect a new speaker, McCarthy does not yet have the support necessary to take the gavel, which poses a serious issue for the California Republican and could jeopardise the future House GOP majority. The speaker election may require more than one ballot if McCarthy is unable to secure the support he needs to prevail in the first round of voting, which hasn’t happened since 1923.
McCarthy is up against a tiny but vociferous group of ardent conservatives. Threatening to withhold crucial votes from the GOP leader, the group is using the razor-thin Republican majority as leverage to force concessions. It is uncertain whether McCarthy’s efforts will be successful despite the fact that he has already acceded to a number of their demands, including making it simpler to remove the current speaker.
The fight has left a lengthy shadow over the upcoming House Republican majority, despite McCarthy’s assurances that he has no plans to withdraw from the race even if it requires repeated votes on the floor. Additionally, McCarthy may have less leverage in his position of leadership if he is elected speaker due to the deal-making he has done to appease his detractors.
According to those familiar with McCarthy’s thinking, he is convinced that he will receive the 218 votes necessary to be elected. However, it is impossible to predict how long or how many ballots the voting process will require.
Uncertain vote calculations and deal-making
A candidate for speaker must receive the support of the majority of House members present during the voting. If no member votes “present” or skips the vote, that equals 218 votes.
House Republicans would command 222 seats in the upcoming Congress; therefore, McCarthy would only need to lose four GOP votes in order to achieve 218 votes. Nearly a dozen more GOP members have publicly stated that they are still undecided, but at least five Republicans have already promised to reject him.
The possibility that McCarthy won’t receive enough votes to win has prompted others to wonder whether a strong alternative would emerge. Both the GOP leader’s supporters and detractors have made an effort to covertly simulate what would occur if he fails to win the gavel in the opening round and lawmakers venture into uncharted area.
Rep. Andy Biggs, a hard-right Republican, is McCarthy’s longshot opponent in the contest. When the House Republican conference chose McCarthy to lead it in November, McCarthy easily defeated the Arizona representative by a margin of 188 to 31. But the unlikely challenge has nonetheless complicated McCarthy’s bid to become speaker and poses a risk of detracting from the GOP leader’s support in the pivotal vote.
McCarthy spent years cultivating the conservative element of his party and made a concerted effort to remain in former President Donald Trump’s good graces after the far-right House Freedom Caucus blocked his ascent to the speakership in 2015.
Trump, who publicly supported McCarthy’s attempt to become speaker and urged others to do the same, has provided some crucial support for him. His legislative friends have also united in an effort to balance out his detractors.
But when a red wave failed to materialise in the November midterm elections, the razor-thin Republican majority that followed gave a small group of conservatives – long suspicious of McCarthy – the opportunity to demand things.
Over the past two months, there has been a full-fledged race for the speakership that has included hard rule-change talks, constant phone calls to members, and strategic meetings with supporters both on and off Capitol Hill.
Although McCarthy has been in a negotiation mode, some of the concessions he has made may make it harder for him to stave off future challenges to his speakership if he wins the gavel.
As first reported by AWN, McCarthy has indicated to lawmakers that he would support a threshold as low as five Republicans to call for a vote to remove the speaker, also known as the “motion to vacate” the speaker’s chair. This is a significant concession for McCarthy, and moderates fear it will be used as a stick to beat him with in the future.